ADP Risers and Fallers in DRAFT Best Ball Leagues (2019 Fantasy Football)

by Josh Shepardson | @BChad50 | Featured Writer
May 15, 2019

Todd Gurley’s ADP has fallen since the Rams traded up to draft RB Darrell Henderson early in the third round

A few weeks have passed since the NFL Draft was held from April 25 through April 27, and that means it’s time to check in on the movers and shakers in the DRAFT best ball leagues. When I last checked in last month, rookies had just been added to the player pool — but obviously didn’t yet have homes since the draft hadn’t taken place. Moving forward, I won’t be referencing the ADP data from prior to the inclusion of rookies in the player pool. If you’re interested in older data, you can see some key names highlighted as risers and fallers in the previously linked piece, and you’re also welcome to reach out to me in the comments, via email, or on Twitter to inquire about previous ADP data. Having said that, I don’t believe the data is particularly helpful at this stage of drafting season, thus, the risers and fallers highlighted below will be relative to their ADP back on April 20.

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Quarterback

Risers

Player 4/20 (ADP) 5/12
Matt Ryan (ATL) QB7 (90.6) QB6 (86.5)
Kyler Murray (ARI) QB17 (127.4) QB11 (109.9)
Tom Brady (NE) QB22 (140.3) QB21 (139.8)
Matthew Stafford (DET) QB25 (163.8) QB24 (162.8)
Dwayne Haskins (WAS) QB31 (213) QB29 (205.7)

 
Ryan leapfrogged a forthcoming NFC South foe to become the sixth QB off the board. The Falcons spent a pair of first-round picks on hog mollies to protect their franchise quarterback, and the drafting community has taken note. Murray’s the big mover at the QB position. Seemingly everyone had him pegged to go first overall to the Cardinals, but his stock likely got a shot in the arm thanks in large part to the addition of some receiving help in the draft.

Fallers

Player 4/20 (ADP) 5/12
Drew Brees (NO) QB6 (89) QB7 (90.3)
Cam Newton (CAR) QB11 (110) QB13 (114.4)
Josh Allen (BUF) QB14 (122.3) QB16 (127.8)
Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) QB21 (138.8) QB22 (141.9)
Ryan Fitzpatrick (MIA) QB26 (185.9) QB33 (214.4)

 
Brees drops behind Matty Ice, but his ADP slips just a pick. The fallers didn’t fall too hard, except one signal caller. The magic could be over before it starts in Miami, as the Dolphins traded for Josh Rosen. Miami’s in a rebuild, and while the Dolphins have told Rosen he’ll have to earn the job and nothing will be handed to him, he should get the nod unless he face plants, so the organization can evaluate whether he’s a long-term solution at the position. Bummer, because Fitz’s gunslinging and high-ceiling, low-floor combo plays well in DRAFT best ball leagues. He can be bypassed in drafts.

Running Back

Risers

Player 4/20 (ADP) 5/12
Melvin Gordon (LAC) RB6 (6.1) RB5 (5.7)
David Johnson (ARI) RB7 (8.4) RB6 (6.3)
Devonta Freeman (ATL) RB16 (30.2) RB13 (26)
Marlon Mack (IND) RB18 (32.6) RB16 (29.5)
Josh Jacobs (OAK) RB29 (63.9) RB20 (35.1)
David Montgomery (CHI) RB41 (109.8) RB29 (59.8)
Miles Sanders (PHI) RB42 (112.9) RB30 (62.1)
Ronald Jones (TB) RB45 (125.7) RB39 (95.8)
Darrell Henderson (LAR) RB53 (152.8) RB41 (103.4)

 
Gordon’s now a top-five pick at RB, and Johnson’s received a two-pick bump (which is huge for a top-10 ADP player) up the board while rising a spot in his positional ranking. Matty Ice isn’t the only Falcon who’s gotten an ADP bump from the addition of reinforcements on the offensive line, as Freeman shot up three spots among backs. The real story in the table is the rise of rookie runners now that they have homes. Jacobs projects to be a bell cow for the Raiders, Montgomery offers a bulldozer complement to Tarik Cohen in Chicago’s rushing attack, and Sanders will vie for touches in Philadelphia’s backfield. Henderson’s inclusion in this table foreshadows a fall for one of the game’s top backs.

Fallers

Player 4/20 (ADP) 5/12
Todd Gurley (LAR) RB5 (5.7) RB8 (8.9)
Sony Michel (NE) RB13 (25.3) RB18 (30.5)
Tarik Cohen (CHI) RB22 (43.1) RB24 (48.9)
Derrius Guice (WAS) RB25 (50.8) RB27 (55)
Jordan Howard (PHI) RB30 (65.4) RB35 (83.7)
Mike Davis (CHI) RB34 (81.9) RB47 (128.7)
Matt Breida (SF) RB46 (126.5) RB51 (147.2)
Rex Burkhead (NE) RB51 (149.7) RB59 (190.4)
Isaiah Crowell (OAK) RB52 (149.9) T-RB78 (216.5)

 
There’s nothing wrong with Gurley’s knee…is what the Rams keep insisting. Yet, they dealt the 94th and 99th picks in the draft to move up to pick 70 and select Henderson. Gamers are treading a bit more carefully, selecting him behind the aforementioned duo of Gordon and D.J. as well as slotting him behind Le’Veon Bell since the last look at ADP. The Patriots somewhat surprisingly spent the second of their three third-round picks on running back Damien Harris, and his addition to the running back room for the Patriots has resulted in the fall of Michel and Burkhead in ADP. Davis goes from an intriguing flyer to someone unlikely to see much usage if Montgomery and Cohen stay healthy. Howard’s ceiling was already capped by his poor hands, but the addition of Sanders lowers his floor now, too.

Wide Receiver

Risers

Player 4/20 (ADP) 5/12
Michael Thomas (NO) WR4 (14) WR3 (13.4)
Sammy Watkins (KC) WR26 (63.6) WR20 (49.4)
Tyler Lockett (SEA) WR30 (72.3) WR25 (59.8)
Sterling Shepard (NYG) WR40 (96.2) WR35 (88.5)
N’Keal Harry (NE) WR60 (165.2) WR37 (95.9)
Demarcus Robinson (KC) WR78 (209.1) T-WR67 (185.1)
Parris Campbell (IND) WR80 (211.7) WR53 (138)
Andy Isabella (ARI) WR86 (214.6) T-WR67 (185.1)
Mecole Hardman (KC) WR101 (216.5) WR45 (111.4)

 

A trio of Kansas City’s receivers — Watkins, Robinson, and Hardman — surge up the board due to Tyreek Hill facing a potential suspension. ESPN’s Adam Schefter dropped a bombshell during the draft that Doug Baldwin may have played his final game, and he’s since had his contract terminated with a failed physical designation, paving the way for Lockett to be Seattle’s unquestioned No. 1 wideout. Harry was the second wide receiver off the board, and catching passes from the G.O.A.T. has a funny way of driving the ADP up on a receiver. Campbell has a relatively clear path to a prominent role in the Colts’ passing attack, providing him a bump in ADP.

Fallers

Player 4/20 (ADP) 5/12
Odell Beckham Jr. (CLE) WR3 (12.4) WR4 (14.8)
Tyreek Hill (KC) WR9 (26.3) WR36 (93.6)
Doug Baldwin (SEA) WR37 (92.7) WR66 (182.8)
DeSean Jackson (PHI) WR44 (105.3) WR49 (120.3)
Donte Moncrief (PIT) WR52 (132) WR58 (157.3)
A.J. Brown (TEN) WR56 (150.1) WR64 (180)
Albert Wilson (MIA) WR61 (165.5) WR70 (190.1)
Marquise Goodwin (SF) WR62 (173.1) WR71 (196.5)
Adam Humphries (TEN) WR67 (190.3) WR73 (198.1)

 

Hill and Baldwin were touched on above, so their appearances in this section shouldn’t come as a surprise. Not everything is rainbows and butterflies for the rookie receiving class. Some wideouts had to land in less than favorable situations, and Brown did so by ending up on the run-happy Titans. Tennessee attempted the second-fewest passes last year. Humphries is another member of the receiving corps in Tennessee to see a drop in ADP. Wilson is the only member of Miami’s receivers to appear in this section, but he’s just the biggest faller out of the trio of him, Kenny Stills, and DeVante Parker.

Tight End

Risers

Player 4/20 (ADP) 5/12
Evan Engram (NYG) TE5 (55.2) TE4 (55.8)
T.J. Hockenson (DET) TE16 (136.6) TE13 (111.8)
Noah Fant (DEN) TE22 (171.2) TE16 (134.7)
Greg Olsen (CAR) TE27 (193) TE24 (186.1)
Irv Smith Jr. (MIN) TE32 (212.6) TE28 (197.8)

Fallers

Player 4/20 (ADP) 5/12
Eric Ebron (IND) TE4 (54.9) TE5 (59.1)
Kyle Rudolph (MIN) TE14 (117.7) TE15 (132.8)
Dallas Goedert (PHI) TE15 (134.7) TE17 (141.1)
Delanie Walker (TEN) TE18 (144.5) TE20 (151.7)
Jesse James (DET) TE24 (178.6) TE37 (215.5)

 
Three rookie tight ends, Hockenson, Fant, and Smith Jr., comprise 60% of the risers table. Rudolph falls just one spot in the positional rankings with the addition of Smith Jr. to the Vikings, but his ADP takes a 15-spot hit. That fall pales in comparison to the nearly 40-pick slide for James with Hockenson in the fold in Detroit.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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