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Wide Receivers Undervalued by ADP (2019 Fantasy Football)

Wide Receivers Undervalued by ADP (2019 Fantasy Football)

Last week, I highlighted a list of running backs who have been consistently neglected at their ADP for the past few years and who have evidence of being value picks yet again this upcoming year, which you can find here. This week, we take at look at wide receivers undergoing a similar lack of love at ADP.

Finding value at positional rankings during your draft days can be the difference of winning a championship to missing the playoffs. While each owner has their own reasons as to why they think a player will provide value for their draft spot, this list shows the players that have consistently done just that. These players have had varying levels of stigmas against them that bring down their draft position nearly every year. It’s time to take advantage. 

In the list below, you’ll find the WRs who have either outperformed their positional ADP every year in recent history and/or have an average positional finish significantly greater than their current 2019 ADP in PPR leagues. Data used was pulled using PPR ADP history from FantasyPros and FantasyData and PPR fantasy leaders from Pro-Football-Reference. The projected finishes listed are based on my interpretation of their history of actual finishes, targets available, teammate competition, and offensive scheme.

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Brandin Cooks (LAR)
Current ADP: WR16 | Projected Finish: WR12

Cooks is the embodiment of absolute consistency. His actual finishes in the last four years are WR13, WR10, WR15, and WR13. Seems impressive enough as is, right? Now factor in that he has changed teams three times over the past three years playing with a different quarterback and offensive scheme each year. That is remarkably impressive and difficult to accomplish.

Now going into year two as the WR1 on a team with blossoming quarterback Jared Goff and offensive mastermind coach Sean McVay, what’s not to like? He is routinely putting up 1,000-plus-yard seasons year after year. In addition, his five TDs in 2018 are actually in line for positive regression to the average compared to similar targeted and performing receivers for 2019. History of proven performance, volume, offensive scheme, and efficiency are all there in Cooks.

Wind blows, fire burns, and Brandin Cooks will be a top-15 WR. 

Sterling Shepard (NYG) 
Current ADP: WR36 | Projected finish: WR27

Shepard has a career fantasy per game production line of 11.7 PPG. Not bad when you’ve been overshadowed by playing second fiddle to one of the best receivers in the NFL. While there is some fair cause for concern over the quarterback play this year, Shepard’s consistent play and upcoming increase in volume should help offset any worry.

Odell Beckham Jr. leaving the Giants has left 124 targets up for grabs from last year. Newcomer Golden Tate will garner a fair share of these, but it is hard to deny that Shepard’s targets will increase in 2019. In fact, when Beckham was out last year, Shepard’s targets per game went from 6.3 to 7.8. At this target rate and with his efficiency from last year, that would put him at a 80-1,050-5 receiving line. While he might not achieve as high as this maintained target rate projection would indicate, a higher fantasy output is ripe for the taking.

Jarvis Landry (CLE) 
Current ADP: WR25 | Projected Finish: WR23

Landry has been a top-20 WR for a long time, but the arrival of Beckham certainly has an impact on his stock. Having one of the best receivers in the league will command a heavy share of the targets, which will likely decrease Landry’s catch total. However, if we look at route positions from last year, 59% of Landry’s snaps came from the slot compared to newcomer Beckham’s 20%. I believe the strong outside presence from Beckham will allow Landry to naturally fall back into his role as a productive slot receiver. 

Baker Mayfield and the Browns’ offense as a whole keeps the hype train going from an expected fantasy output, and it’s hard to not jump on board. In 2017, the Browns were averaging 14.6 PPG. Now, with Mayfield starting and with the new coaching staff in 2018, they are averaging 23 PPG. Even with this increase in offense, their defense was not able to keep up, allowing 24.5 PPG. Passing plays are more prevalent in a negative game script–which will continue at these rates–leading to more opportunities for receivers to pad their stats.

While his fantasy output from last year seems certain to drop some with Beckham’s arrival, I’m betting on his proven track record and the Browns’ increasingly productive offense to help him beat his ADP once again.

Adam Humphries (TEN) 
Current ADP: WR72 | Projected Finish: WR56

The Tennessee Titans just forked over a lucrative $36 million contract to bring Humphries aboard this offseason. If you look at nothing else, that alone could tell you they plan to feature him heavily. Similar to the aforementioned Landry, he does even more work out of the slot as 78% of his snaps came from there. He should pair well with Corey Davis and rookie A.J. Brown in this aspect.

Where things take a dark turn is when you look at the Titans’ passing game and quarterback situation with Marcus Mariota. They had one of the lowest combined pass attempts and passing yards per game. The light at the end of the tunnel is the signing of Ryan Tannehill and management’s investments into wide receivers. If Mariota improves his performance and plays better this year, that’s great news for an increase in wide receiver fantasy production.

If Mariota continues to decline, Tannehill can take over. If you remember their Dolphin days together, Tannehill would very often target his slot receiver Landry, the role that is now assumed by Humphries.

Beating their coverage to get open is yet another similarity Landry and Humphries share. Among receivers with 70 or more receptions last year, no two receivers had higher average yards of separation than these two with 3.6 for Humprhies and 3.3 for Landry. This talent for getting open should remain consistent.

Humphries has been providing value at his ADP year after year. While a mid-to-high-end finish is very far-fetched, outperforming a WR72 ADP appears easy to accomplish given his team’s investment and situation.

Honorable Mention

Alshon Jeffery (PHI) 
Current ADP: WR29 | Projected Finish: WR21

After finishing as the WR21 in 2017, he put together a WR26 finish in 2018, which would have translated to WR16 on a PPG basis had he not missed a few games due to injury. He’s been hovering in this range ever since arriving with the Eagles, with little evidence pointing to a drop in production as is suggested by his current ADP.

His competition may have slightly stepped up with the additions of rookie J.J. Arcega-Whiteside and the return of 32-year-old DeSean Jackson, but they are small threats to an established WR1 on a team. I believe he maintains his PPG average and returns yet again to the low WR20s ranking.

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David Zach is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from David, check out his archive and follow him @DavidZach16.

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