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Have you ever heard the phrase “Garbage time fantasy points still count as fantasy points”? If you ask any fantasy football owner, they don’t care if their quarterback throws a touchdown in a blowout or if they throw a touchdown to win a game. Fantasy owners also probably don’t care how good their quarterback’s team defense is, but that could help determine how game scripts will transpire through the season.

Remember who the top five quarterbacks were in 2015? Blake Bortles was fourth on that list. In that season, the Jaguars’ defense played poorly and allowed many garbage time opportunities for their offense. Their defensive unit ranked 31st in points allowed and ninth in total yards allowed to their opponents. The Jaguars as a team had the lowest average time of possession when leading in a game at just three minutes and 58 seconds, and they were third-highest in average time trailing at 35 minutes! When the Jaguars were losing by 17 or more points, Bortles became the Garbage Time King. He ranked third in the NFL with a 116.9 passer rating among quarterbacks. Wide receivers Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns benefited from their quarterback’s success by finishing the year as WR6 and WR18 in PPR formats, respectively.

There is a flip-side to just looking for garbage time production. Some teams are not only bad on defense but bad on offense as well. Take the Cardinals last year, who led the league in trailing games at an average of 35 minutes and 49 seconds. Their offensive players were given plenty of opportunities but the team still ranked dead last in passing yards, rushing yards, and scoring! Their offense was so inept that it couldn’t score regardless of negative game scripts.

Instead of trying to draft players that may offer garbage time upside (is that a thing?), perhaps find teams that have susceptible defenses and talent on offense. It’s also important to track defenses that are without some of their key players through the season. Last year the Atlanta Falcons’ defense would have been pretty good, but they were hit hard with the injury bug. Their two starting safeties, Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen, missed 28 games combined. Their middle linebacker, Deion Jones, even missed 10 games. Their absences were apparent in the Falcons’ defense, as they gave up the sixth-most passing yards and eighth-most points. But these defensive struggles turned out to be a good thing for fantasy owners of Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Calvin Ridley. Ryan finished the season as QB2 and he had the most fantasy points scored in the fourth quarter by throwing for almost 2,600 yards and 21 passing touchdowns in that time. His number one target, Julio Jones, finished as WR5. He had the most fantasy points of any wide receiver in the fourth quarter and added five touchdowns in that span. Fifty-one percent of his catches and yards also came when the Falcons were trailing. Calvin Ridley was just a rookie last year, but he still finished as WR22 with 206.8 PPR points in 16 games.

Finding teams that have good offensive players with a susceptible defense, or a defense missing key players, can provide higher volume in fantasy. Without focusing much on the obvious fantasy players that are being taken in the first round or two, let’s focus more on some of the mid-to-late round players that could be a target in drafts.

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Anyone on the Kansas City Chiefs (KC)
I will start with an obvious one, the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs’ offense had the most yards in the league last year. The offense was led by Mahomes who threw the ninth-most passing yards all-time in a season (5,097) and also became the third quarterback in NFL history to pass for 50 touchdowns in a season. It was a historic year for Mahomes with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce being the main beneficiaries of that production. Kelce and Hill are already cemented as being top-five picks at their position this season, but they could be sharing targets with Damien Williams. Williams is a player that could be the lead back in Kansas City and a fantasy star. I say could be the starter because Andy Reid suggested he was going to go with a running back-by-committee approach this year. If Williams is the lead back, like most experts predict, he will be replacing Kareem Hunt. Hunt has produced well in the same offense — finishing as the RB4 in 2017 and RB12 in 11 games last season before being suspended. Andy Reid’s offense has a proven track record for producing fantasy-relevant running backs, so make sure to keep an eye on Damien Williams, as well as Carlos Hyde and Darwin Thompson.

One reason why the Chiefs’ offensive players were so productive last season was due to their defense. The Chiefs’ defensive unit surrendered the second-most total yards to opposing offenses. This could have been attributed to how efficient the Chiefs were scoring on offense. According to Football Outsiders, the Chiefs ranked first in average lead time in a game at 39 minutes and 9 seconds. The insane part is that they were ranked 27th in total time of offense in a game with 28 minutes and 51 seconds! This means they were not only scoring often — they were also scoring quickly. I do think the Chiefs’ defense will improve with the additions of Frank Clark and Tyrann Mathieu, so their offense may not need to produce in the way that they did last year. The Chiefs will still be one of the most relevant fantasy teams, so getting any piece of that offense would be a good idea.

Other Chiefs to watch: Darrell Williams, Mecole Hardman, Sammy Watkins.

Jameis Winston, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and O.J. Howard (TB)
One of my favorite offenses to target this year is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They are a team that has talent on offense but not so on defense. Last season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ defense ranked dead last in passing yards against them, but their offense passed for the most yards in the NFL. The Buccaneers acknowledged their defensive flaws by using their first five picks in the 2019 draft to address that side of the ball. While the additions may be an upgrade on paper, I still think that they will struggle in a division with high-powered offenses like the Saints, Panthers, and Falcons.

The Bucs decided to hire a proven head coach in Bruce Arians, who was the AP Coach of the Year twice in three seasons. Arians also has a good track record with quarterbacks and should be good for Winston, who has struggled to perform well on the field and off the field. Here are a couple of accolades from their new head coach with quarterbacks:

• 1998-2000 quarterback coach for Peyton Manning — Selected to two Pro Bowls (Manning’s first 3 years in the league).
• 2007 Offensive Coordinator for Pittsburgh — Ben Roethlisberger was named to his first Pro Bowl.
• 2012 Offensive Coordinator and Interim Head Coach for Colts — Luck made Pro Bowl in his rookie year.
• 2015 Head Coach for Arizona Cardinals — Carson Palmer had his best season (Over 4,600 yards, 35 touchdowns and a passer rating of 104.6).

Along with a good head coach, Winston has the seventh easiest strength of schedule (SOS) among quarterbacks while his wide receivers, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, have the fifth easiest SOS. Mike Evans has been good in fantasy with top-five upside each year. In previous seasons, Evans posted a WR3 finish in 2016 and WR9 finish in 2018. Godwin, on the other hand, hasn’t shown quite the fantasy production as Evans but is a breakout candidate from his flashes last season. Another weapon for Winston will be O.J. Howard. He finished last season as TE14 in just ten games posting 34 catches for 565 yards and 5 TDs. Arians hasn’t showcased the tight end position in his past offensive schemes, but Howard’s skill set is too good to not be involved. Now that DeSean Jackson (74 targets) and Adam Humpheries (105 targets — second on the team) are gone from the passing game, and given that there’s still no clear starting running back, more targets are to be shared among the Buccaneers’ top pass-catchers.

The 2019 Buccaneers should improve on offense and defense with a coaching staff that will have never be satisfied and will always push their players. I also think the Buccaneers have one of the more talented groups of players on offense. Their defense may be improved with new defensive coordinate Todd Bowles, but won’t be posting any top-ten numbers this year. It may be hard to have all four players listed have great production each week, but a combination of a below-average defense and talented offense is why the Buccaneers will be a team I am targeting to draft.

Derek Carr and Antonio Brown (OAK)
In Jon Gruden’s first year with the Raiders, the offense had the tenth-fewest total yards and scored the fifth-fewest points. Looking ahead to 2019, the Raiders have the hardest strength of schedule based on the combined 2018 record of all 16 opponents. They added some young and veteran talent via the draft and free agency, but I don’t think it will be enough to move them out of the bottom half of the league. Let’s look at how Oakland ranked last season in some key statistics on defense:

• 32nd in pressure rate at getting to the quarterback at 22.5 percent.
• 32nd in yards per play at 6.3 yards.
• 32nd in allowing 8.0 yards per attempt.
• 30th in third-down percentage — allowing opposing offenses to convert 46.3 percent of the time.

The Raiders spent some of their draft capital on getting better on the defensive side of the ball by nabbing Clelin Ferrell, Johnathan Abram, and Trayvon Mullen with their first three picks. They will make the defense better in time, but the Raiders still have a long way to go in a very tough AFC West.

Let’s look at why Carr and Brown could be top players at their position in fantasy. In 2016, Carr finished third in AP NFL MVP voting and was the tenth quarterback in fantasy in 15 games. Carr’s last two seasons have not looked so great in terms of fantasy production (QB19 in 2017 and QB17 in 2018) but he will now be in his second year in Gruden’s system with arguably the best wide receiver in football — Antonio Brown.

Now I know earlier I stated I wouldn’t be spending too much time on players being drafted in the first two rounds, but there has been a lot of skepticism about drafting Brown. From almost freezing his feet off to threatening to retire from football if he couldn’t wear his previous helmet — there hasn’t been a dull moment in Oakland with Brown. The worry is this could affect his rapport with his new quarterback. His injury with his feet could take him out of preseason action altogether and may linger into the season.

While Brown does have some serious character concerns, I still think he is too talented to pass on. Look at how dominant Brown has been in fantasy since 2013:

 
One of the great things about Brown is his durability — he only missed four games over the past six seasons. His quarterback in that time, Ben Roethlisberger, loved to target him. Among players that have been in the league for the past six years, Brown has more targets than any other wide receiver by 131!

 
Brown has had plenty of volume for fantasy but as good of a player as Brown has been, he is going to be in an entirely different situation in Oakland. According to PFF, Derek Carr was the most accurate deep passer (targets 20+ yards downfield) in the NFL in 2018 and ranks third in deep passing accuracy since 2016 — this is good for Brown’s outlook. Carr was also was the league leader in check-down passes last year — not so good for Brown. The big questions we need to find out are: What Derek Carr will we see next season and what will the chemistry be like between him and Brown?

Other Raiders to watch: Josh Jacobs, Jalen Richard, Tyrell Williams, Darren Waller.

Russell Wilson and Tyler Lockett (SEA)
Seattle’s defense ranked 16th in yards allowed and 11th in points allowed last season, which wasn’t too bad. Seattle’s offense was first in rushing yards and 27th in passing yards. So why choose a quarterback and wide receiver from a team that wasn’t bad on defense, ran the ball the second-most, and passed the ball the least amount in the NFL? This one is sort of a bold-ish take but I think the Seahawks’ defense will take a considerable step backward in 2019. It starts with the losses on the defensive side of the ball — Earl Thomas, Frank Clark, and Justin Coleman. More negative game scripts could be ahead for Seattle which could create more opportunities for their offense, which is led by none other than Russell Wilson and Tyler Lockett.

Last season, Wilson recorded a perfect passer rating (158.3) when targeting Lockett. This was the first perfect wide receiver and quarterback rating ever recorded from PFF. Here are some other stats from PFF on what Lockett and Wilson did together last year:

• Lockett didn’t have a single dropped pass in 2018.
• Lockett averaged 14.85 yards per target, which is the most by any wide receiver with at least 25 targets this past decade.
• Lockett averaged 3.28 PPR fantasy points per target, which is the most by any wide receiver in any season (of 1,772 qualifying seasons) since targets became a stat in 1992.
• Lockett tied for the sixth-most receiving touchdowns in 2018.

All of this came on just 70 pass attempts from Wilson, which was the 57th most among wide receivers in 2018. While I don’t think he will have as efficient a year as he did last year, I expect his target share to increase. This past offseason, the Seahawks lost their former top wide receiver, Doug Baldwin, which should help Lockett find more volume. Seattle will still rely on the run game but their big losses on defense could lead to more games where passing is necessary. Russell Wilson is still projected as a top ten quarterback in fantasy, and Lockett is currently being drafted at an ADP of 53 and WR20. Both are fair places for them to be drafted, but I think that both have even more upside than their current draft spot reflects.

Other Seahawks to watch: D.K. Metcalf and David Moore.

Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon (CIN)
No A.J. Green to start the season could lead to more volume for Tyler Boyd. Their defense didn’t do them any favors last year by allowing the most total yards and most points scored to opposing offenses. Another Bengal that could benefit from a bad defense is Joe Mixon. While trailing in games last season Mixon, rushed for 588 yards and four touchdowns on 5.3 yards per carry. His passing-game work also increased when the Bengals fell behind. Mixon caught 27 balls for 215 yards and one receiving touchdown. The X-factor in how Boyd and Mixon will produce lies in the hands of the inconsistent Andy Dalton and a shoddy offensive line. The Bengals could be just a bad team overall in 2019, but these two players are worth watching.

Other Bengals to watch: Giovani Bernard and A.J. Green (when he returns).

Kyler Murray and Christian Kirk (ARI)
I know that I bashed the Cardinals as a bad all-around team earlier in this article, but I think that they may be fantasy-relevant this year. Their bottom of the league defense will be without both their All-Pro cornerback Patrick Peterson for six games and his replacement, Robert Alford. Alford broke his leg in their second preseason game and will be “be out an extended amount of time” with a leg injury. With unproven commodities in their secondary to start the season, the Cardinals could be in for some negative game scripts early and often this year.

I don’t know what it’s going to look like for Kingsbury’s Air Raid system in the NFL, but all reports out of camp so far have been positive on Kyler Murray — he can’t look worse than Sam Bradford and Josh Rosen did last year. While Murray has yet to play a down in a regular-season game, so there are a lot of questions on how he will transition to the league, it’s certain that he can run the ball. In his last season in Oklahoma, he became the second quarterback to ever have 4,000+ passing yards and 1,000+ rushing yards in a single FBS season.

One of Murray’s main targets this season could be the Cardinals’ second-round pick from a season ago, Christian Kirk. Despite playing in an offense that was by far the worst in the league, Kirk had 43 catches for 590 yards and three touchdowns. Those stats won’t wow anyone, but they were good for a 19 percent target share and for 20 percent of the team’s receiving yards. Going at an ADP of 79 and as the WR36, he might be worth a flyer in a new system that can’t be worse than last year… right?

Other Cardinals to watch: Larry Fitzgerald, Andy Isabella, KeeSean Johnson.

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Kevin O’Connor is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Kevin, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @22kconnor.