Fantasy Football Overvalued/Undervalued: Week 6
Last week was a pretty good one for my undervalued/overvalued picks against FantasyPros’ Expert Consensus Rankings for half-PPR formats. I correctly predicted that Kyler Murray would outproduce Dak Prescott, and it would have been by a lot more if Prescott hadn’t put up big passing numbers in garbage time. I also called that Julian Edelman would have a big week and Sterling Shepard would underwhelm.
My running back picks never got a chance to play out, as Devin Singletary (undervalued) ended up sitting out, while Wayne Gallman (overvalued) left the game with a concussion after just two carries. My biggest dud was calling Eric Ebron undervalued, which to be honest is simply never a good decision. But I’m going to chalk that one up to tight end being terrible. Even Ebron was better than my overvalued tight end, Ricky Seals-Jones, who had more hyphens in his name than catches or yards last week. Alright, on to Week 6.
Undervalued: Matthew Stafford (DET)
My Rank: QB13
I underestimated Stafford in Week 4, so I guess I’m atoning for it here. A Monday night trip to Green Bay is certainly a daunting matchup — I actually like the Packers’ D as a streamer this week — but that doesn’t mean Stafford will be a total flop. He’s thrown nine touchdown passes in his first four games and should benefit from extended rest and preparation coming out of his bye week.
Meanwhile, the Packers have given up five touchdown passes to Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott over the last two weeks after allowing just one to Mitchell Trubisky, Kirk Cousins, and Joe Flacco combined. Stafford should be viewed as closer to the Wentz/Prescott tier of passers based on his early season performances. He enters the week tied with Tom Brady as the overall QB7, so I’d say ranking him 13th this week adequately accounts for the quality of his opponent.
Overvalued: Lamar Jackson (BAL)
My Rank: QB6
I promised in Week 3 that I would stop doubting the powers of Mr. Jackson, but here I go doing it again. Like Kyler Murray, Jackson’s rushing prowess keeps him on the QB1 radar each and every week, but his passing ability is clearly still a work in progress. He has a dreadful four-to-five touchdown-to-interception ratio over the last three weeks and his passing yardage totals have steadily declined every game since Week 1.
He does have a mouth-watering home matchup with the Bengals, so I expect him to post big numbers. But I just can’t justify ranking Jackson ahead of Deshaun Watson, Matt Ryan, and Russell Wilson, who are all outplaying him lately and have excellent matchups of their own.
Undervalued: Matt Breida (SF)
My Rank: RB19
The 49ers are employing a true backfield committee, but that doesn’t mean you should shy away from Breida or Tevin Coleman for that matter. I have both backs ranked well above the industry consensus this week. San Francisco currently leads the NFL in rushing with a cool 200 yards per game, far more than any other team besides the Ravens.
This week, Breida and Coleman get a favorable matchup with the Rams, who have allowed a running back to surpass 100 scrimmage yards and/or score a touchdown in four-of-five games. Granted, the Rams have faced a murderer’s row of running backs (Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Nick Chubb, Ronald Jones, and Chris Carson), but Breida is no slouch, either. Fullback Kyle Juszczyk’s absence is a concern, but I’m willing to trust Breida to continue to produce in what projects to be a high-scoring game that San Francisco will try to control on the ground.
Overvalued: Leonard Fournette (JAC)
My Rank: RB13
Ok, this one feels weird. I thought I was the biggest Fournette booster out there, but I’m evidently the low man on him this week. Why? It’s all about the matchup.
This week, Fournette goes up against a Saints front seven that has held Todd Gurley, Chris Carson, Ezekiel Elliott, and Ronald Jones below 4.0 yards per carry over the last month. The Saints haven’t allowed a running back to top 100 scrimmage yards yet this season, and they’ve surrendered just three total touchdowns to running backs. Back when Fournette was struggling, I made the case that his bell-cow usage would make him an RB1 just about every week. Now that he’s put up big numbers the last couple weeks, he’s soared up the Expert Consensus Rankings, but I don’t think we should completely ignore his matchup. This week he’s just outside my top-12 running backs, which just might end up being the lowest I have ranked him all year.
Undervalued: Dede Westbrook (JAC)
My Rank: WR31
While breakout star D.J. Chark gets all of the attention, Westbrook quietly has 26 targets over the last three weeks. Chark will likely face shadow coverage this week from New Orleans cornerback Marshon Lattimore, who struggled early in the year, but did a nice job containing Amari Cooper in Week 4 before completely shutting out Mike Evans last week. Lattimore’s presence should lead to Gardner Minshew frequently targeting Westbrook again this week. Facing a team with a strong run defense and a shutdown cornerback, this is a good week to take a chance on the Jags’ number two receiver. Westbrook is a sneaky bet to lead the team in fantasy production and can be approached as a viable WR3/flex option.
Overvalued: Courtland Sutton (DEN)
My Rank: WR35
Sutton looks to be in the midst of a breakthrough sophomore season, but I am still hesitant to invest in Denver pass-catchers, particularly in difficult matchups. This week, the Broncos get the Tennessee Titans in what Vegas has pegged as the lowest-scoring game on the Week 6 slate. The Titans have yet to allow a 100-yard receiver, despite facing the likes of Odell Beckham Jr., T.Y Hilton, Chark, and Julio Jones. Sutton appears to have leapfrogged Emmanuel Sanders as the Broncos’ number one receiver, giving him a decent floor, but this is still a low-yield passing attack. His numbers would have looked very different last week if not for a 70-yard catch-and-run touchdown, and fantasy managers simply can’t count on that happening every week.
Undervalued: Jason Witten (DAL)
My Rank: TE11
As usual, tight end is a total disaster zone after you get beyond the top seven or so options. However, if you’re not sure who to start this week, let me present a lukewarm endorsement for Jason Witten. Witten has exactly four targets in all five games this season, so at least his role in the offense is consistent.
Regardless, the main selling point for Witten is that his seven red-zone targets are tied for the third-most in the league. The other tight ends with 7+ red zone targets are a who’s who of TE1s: Evan Engram (10), George Kittle (9), Zach Ertz (7), Mark Andrews (7), and Travis Kelce (7). In half PPR, Witten is the kind of player who will give you between five and seven points if he doesn’t catch a touchdown, and 11-13 if he does. Sadly, that’ll play at this position.
Overvalued: Delanie Walker (TEN)
My Rank: TE15
I have old pal Delanie as my overvalued tight end just about every week, but this week I have one more reason to avoid him — playing time. Whether due to health or ineffectiveness, Walker has played far fewer snaps than 2017 third-rounder Jonnu Smith each of the last two weeks. I know tight end is terrible, but do you really want to start a 35-year-old part-timer on the Titans?