Last year in Week 10, Corey Davis and Anthony Miller both went off for 20 fantasy points. Meanwhile, Mo-Alie Cox outscored Travis Kelce, Evan Engram and O.J. Howard. Over at running back, Mike Davis and Jacquizz Rodgers both outscored Saquon Barkley.
The point is that while everything you are about to read may seem crazy, this is a league where crazy things happen every week. I am merely trying to forecast which scenarios are possible in advance like last week when we hyped up Trey Edmunds‘ potential role in the Steelers offense and Melvin Gordon‘s big game.
I’ll be posting this article every Saturday, and while these are all players I feel strongly about for the week, these are not my projections by any means. Rather, a bold prediction is something that most people would say has less than 10% chance of happening, but I’ll give it two or even three times better odds. So perhaps use one of these guys in a DFS GPP or if you need help breaking a tie on a start/sit decision.
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#1 Daniel Jones will outscore Russell Wilson
This clearly has nothing to do with the quality of the players and everything to do with their circumstances this week. Jones takes on a Jets’ secondary that was just torched by the Miami Dolphins of all teams. He might actually end up in a game script that requires plenty of passing as well. Wilson, meanwhile, gets what is considered by most to be the second toughest matchup in football when they travel to San Francisco. Although he is extraordinarily efficient, it seems likely that they’ll run the ball much more against the run-funnel defense.
Final Prediction: Jones (25/40, 303 yds, 3 TDs, 4 car, 26 yds), Wilson (18/27, 219 yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 7 car, 20 yds)
#2 Ty Johnson will compile over 100 total yards
It may seem ridiculous to say considering how disappointing he has been in back to back weeks, but in the first week, Tra Carson got the start. He is now on IR and out of the way. In Week 9, they took on an extreme pass-funnel defense and had to throw all game to stay in it. This week, we’ve got the extreme opposite as they take on a Bears’ team that struggles versus the run and is awesome against the pass. As the unquestioned starter, he should be in line for a quality performance.
Final Prediction: 12 carries, 68 yds, 3 rec, 40 yds, 1 TD
#3 Mike Gesicki will be a top-five tight end
Like Johnson, this may really surprise some of you, but Gesicki has morphed into quite the football player this season. As a result, his targets have increased over the last few weeks, and particularly down the field where fantasy points add up more quickly. He has a great matchup this week against a Colts team that has struggled versus tight ends, and with Preston Williams out for the season, Gesicki may very well be Ryan Fitzpatrick‘s #2 weapon now.
Final Prediction: 7 targets, 6 receptions, 78 yds, 1 TD
#4 David Montgomery will outproduce Aaron Jones
Like Daniel Jones and Russell Wilson above, this is only indicative of the situations they are in. Montgomery plays for a coach that doesn’t mind having a workhorse, as evidenced by his 48 touches over the past two weeks. Jones, meanwhile, has just 44 carries over the last FOUR weeks, and while he has been used in the passing game, Davante Adams being at full health should diminish his role there. They both have good matchups, but going against the Lions’ horrible run defense definitely takes the cake for Montgomery.
Final Prediction: Montgomery (20 car, 126 yds, 1 TD, 2 rec, 9 yds), Jones (12 car, 60 yds, 1 TD, 4 rec, 51 yds)
#5 Sammy Watkins will end up as a top 10 receiver
So far this season, Watkins has played five complete games. In those weeks, his 50 targets rank 2nd in football, his 32 receptions are tied for fourth, his 419 yards are second and his 3 touchdowns tied for second. Granted, three of those weeks came without Tyreek Hill, but then again, two came without Patrick Mahomes, who was just named the Week 10 starter. The matchup versus Tennessee is usually less than ideal but with Malcolm Butler now on injured reserve, Watkins could have another one of his classic blowup games as the Titans focus on containing Tyreek Hill.
Final Prediction: 9 targets, 6 receptions, 99 yds, 2 TDs
The Other Half
#6 Darrell Henderson will lead the Rams in touches (Seemed to take lead job in second half of Week 8)
Final Prediction: 13 carries, 48 yds, 1 TD, 2 rec, 27 yds)
#7 Chester Rogers will be a top 30 wideout (Hilton and Campbell both out means Rogers starts vs MIA)
Final Prediction: 7 targets, 4 receptions, 62 yds, 1 TD)
#8 O.J. Howard will finally finish as a top 5 tight end (Has had tough schedule but finally gets perfect matchup if Brate is out)
Final Prediction: 6 targets, 6 receptions, 88 yds, 1 TD)
#9 The Giants will be a top 5 D/ST (Even the Dolphins looked good against NYJ last week)
Final Prediction: 20 pts allowed, 2 INT, 2 FMB, 4 Sacks, 1 TD
#10 Darius Slayton will end up in the top 20 receivers (Engram and Shepard are both out for NYG + great matchup)
Final Prediction: 6 targets, 5 receptions, 89 yds, 1 TD)
Thanks for reading and happy football season!
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