Skip to main content

FanDuel NFL Value Plays: Week 11 (2019)

Nov 14, 2019

Derrius Guice could produce against a Jets defense that is suspect against pass-catching backs

Geoff Lambert looks at value plays for Week 11.

This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Geoff, head over to GoingFor2.com.

Can you believe it’s Week 11 already? Just a few more weeks and the NFL regular season will be over. I feel like the season just started. Well, no sense worrying about that yet. We have a nice sized slate to look at this week.

Win $1 Million playing FanDuel’s NFL Sunday Million >>

Quarterbacks

Kyle Allen (CAR): $7,200 vs. ATL
The Falcons, despite playing better last week, are still 31st in DVOA versus the pass (only the Bengals are worse). Allen also has the best weapon in the NFL, Christian McCaffery, and his wide receivers, D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel, both have big-play ability. The three of them together form a dangerous group of playmakers — all Allen has to do is get them the ball. This game has the second-highest over/under on the slate at 50. There should be plenty of points to go around in this one.

Running Backs

Raheem Mostert (SF): $4,600 vs. ARI
Starting running back Matt Breida is expected to miss this game, and while the 49ers still have Tevin Coleman, they like to run a two-back system. Mostert is the most efficient of the three running backs, averaging 5.5 yards per carry, which is the highest mark in the league among running backs with at least 60 carries. Breida and Coleman racked up 164 yards on the ground in their last meeting two weeks ago. I’d expect something similar in this game.

Derrius Guice (WAS): $4,700 vs. NYJ
Interm coach Bill Callahan has already announced that Guice will have a role in the offense this weekend and many expect him to play the “Chris Thompson” role as the third-down back. Rookie quarterback Dwayne Haskins is still very green as a starting signal-caller and will likely look to checkdown to Guice a lot in this game. That could lead to a big play or two against a Jets defense that gives up an average of eight catches and 50 yards to running backs this season.

Wide Receivers

Auden Tate (CIN): $5,300 @ OAK
The Raiders’ run defense has been very stout and will force the Bengals to throw it a lot more than they want. Despite running back Joe Mixon’s good game on the ground last week, Tate still received six targets. Granted, they didn’t equate to a lot of yardage, but the volume is still there. For as good as the Raiders are against the run, they are equally as bad versus the pass at 29th in DVOA.

Russell Gage (ATL): $5,300 @ CAR
I had Gage as one of my value picks last week and looking at his box score, you might wonder why I’m going back to him this week. His four targets were second only to Julio Jones among the wide receivers and third if you include tight end Austin Hooper. Hooper (knee) is expected to be out for this game, leaving a ton of targets on the table that Gage could easily pick up. As I mentioned earlier, this game has a high point total and Gage gives you some cheap exposure.

Tights Ends

Ross Dwelley (SF): $4,900 vs. ARI
Starting tight end George Kittle is expected to miss his second straight week, leaving Dwelley as the de facto starter. The Cardinals are terrible at defending the tight end position. In fact, only twice in 10 games has a tight end not scored a touchdown this season when playing them. They are dead last in DVOA against the position, giving up a whopping 8.5 catches and 85.8 yards per game to opposing tight ends.

Defense

Atlanta Falcons: $3,500 @ CAR
I had a hard time finding a value defense this week, but if I’m forced to pick one, the Falcons would be my choice. Yes, they have been pretty bad all season, but they actually showed flashes last week against their division rival, the Saints. This week, they have another divisional game against a second-year quarterback that has a tendency to turn the ball over. At $3,500, they don’t have to do much.

Create Optimal FanDuel lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool >>


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Google Play | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | TuneIn | RSS

What's your take? Leave a comment

1Derrick Henry (TEN)RB
2Christian McCaffrey (CAR)RB
3Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)RB
4Nick Chubb (CLE)RB
5Leonard Fournette (JAC)RB
6Dalvin Cook (MIN)RB
7Aaron Jones (GB)RB
8Melvin Gordon (LAC)RB
9Alvin Kamara (NO)RB
10Le'Veon Bell (NYJ)RB
 View all Flex Rankings 
11Saquon Barkley (NYG)RB
12Josh Jacobs (OAK)RB
13Todd Gurley (LAR)RB
14Mark Ingram (BAL)RB
15Davante Adams (GB)WR
16Michael Thomas (NO)WR
17Mike Evans (TB)WR
18Miles Sanders (PHI)RB
19Tyreek Hill (KC)WR
20DeAndre Hopkins (HOU)WR
21Chris Carson (SEA)RB
22Chris Godwin (TB)WR
23D.J. Moore (CAR)WR
24Phillip Lindsay (DEN)RB
25Julian Edelman (NE)WR
26Cooper Kupp (LAR)WR
27Devonta Freeman (ATL)RB
28Joe Mixon (CIN)RB
29Stefon Diggs (MIN)WR
30Odell Beckham Jr. (CLE)WR
1Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL)LF,CF
2Nolan Arenado (COL)3B
3Mookie Betts (BOS)CF,RF
4J.D. Martinez (BOS)LF,RF
5Trevor Story (COL)SS
6Justin Verlander (HOU)SP
7Cody Bellinger (LAD)1B,CF
8Trea Turner (WSH)SS
9Alex Bregman (HOU)3B,SS
10Jacob deGrom (NYM)SP
 View All Rankings 
11Max Scherzer (WSH)SP
12Francisco Lindor (CLE)SS
13Gerrit Cole (FA)SP
14Freddie Freeman (ATL)1B
15Javier Baez (CHC)2B,3B
16Charlie Blackmon (COL)CF
17Aaron Judge (NYY)RF,DH
18Juan Soto (WSH)LF
19Anthony Rendon (FA)3B
20Bryce Harper (PHI)CF,RF
21Jose Altuve (HOU)2B
22Xander Bogaerts (BOS)SS
23Starling Marte (PIT)CF
24Walker Buehler (LAD)SP
25Manny Machado (SD)3B,SS
26Anthony Rizzo (CHC)1B
27Kris Bryant (CHC)3B,RF
28Whit Merrifield (KC)1B,2B
29George Springer (HOU)CF,RF
30Paul Goldschmidt (STL)1B
1Anthony Davis (LAL)PF,C
2James Harden (HOU)PG,SG
3Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)SF,PF
4Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN)C
5Kevin Durant (BKN)SF,PF
6LeBron James (LAL)SF,PF
7Stephen Curry (GSW)PG,SG
8Nikola Jokic (DEN)PF,C
9Damian Lillard (POR)PG
10Russell Westbrook (HOU)PG
 View All Rankings 
11Victor Oladipo (IND)PG,SG
12Paul George (LAC)SF,PF
13Joel Embiid (PHI)PF,C
14Kawhi Leonard (LAC)SG,SF
15Chris Paul (OKC)PG
16Jimmy Butler (MIA)SG,SF
17Kemba Walker (BOS)PG
18Ben Simmons (PHI)PG,SF
19Kyrie Irving (BKN)PG,SG
20Jrue Holiday (NOR)PG,SG
21Rudy Gobert (UTH)C
22Andre Drummond (DET)PF,C
23John Wall (WAS)PG
24Kyle Lowry (TOR)PG
25Donovan Mitchell (UTH)PG,SG
26Khris Middleton (MIL)SG,SF
27Bradley Beal (WAS)SG
28Kevin Love (CLE)PF,C
29Draymond Green (GSW)PF,C
30LaMarcus Aldridge (SAS)PF,C
Build winning DFS lineups

Use the FantasyPros Lineup Optimizer to build winning lineups based on expert projections.