The 2019 season has been a fun one to watch, but last week we had a few too many blowouts. While those might’ve helped (or hurt) your DFS teams, depending on who you played, one of the best ways to approach DFS is to consider who’s likely to be highly owned. Betting on those players in cash leagues is a smart way to ensure your success; avoiding popular picks in tournament leagues can help separate your lineup from the rest. Each week, I’ll be offering some fantasy analysis on the ownership numbers from our projected ownership tool, so let’s get started!
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Quarterback
Matt Ryan takes on the Buccaneers, and he’s a strong bet against their second-worst defense against quarterbacks. They are surrendering a whopping 23.7 FanDuel points per game to the position, ensuring that Ryan will have a strong floor this week. Even though he’ll be without Austin Hooper and Devonta Freeman, last week proved that Atlanta could win without them. It’s no surprise that a quarter of FanDuel players are expected to slot Ryan into their lineups, but he’s not quite chalk, and there are some strong plays elsewhere. After Ryan, we’ve got two popular picks above 15% projected ownership. Russell Wilson is the first of these guys. He’s having an MVP-caliber season, and he’s got the Eagles this week. However, Philadelphia has improved defensively in recent weeks. Since Week 8, the Eagles have only given up 44 points, or 14.667 points per game. They’ve done it against some decent teams, too, as they played the Bills, Bears, and Patriots over that span. Although I’m confident in Russ as a quarterback, I don’t know if the matchup justifies his $8,200 salary. The Eagles’ passing defense is even in the top half against opposing quarterbacks. Jameis Winston comes in next against a recovering Atlanta team. While I expect that he’ll rebound from his bad showing against New Orleans last week, I’m also unsure if I’d want to roll the dice on him when Ryan is just $300 more. The argument for Winston is that his receivers are elite and can make plays despite him, but his interceptions will cost you fantasy points, and the Falcons got four of them last week. We wind out the list with two guys under 10%. First, we’ve got Drew Brees against the Panthers. Unlike the Eagles, the Panthers have been cold lately. The Falcons throttled them last week, and I’d look for the Saints to do the same here. While Carolina has been decent against opposing quarterbacks this season, as they have only given up 15.8 FanDuel points per game to the position, they’ll need Kyle Allen and the offense to maintain possession, and I’m not sure if that’ll happen. Finally, Carson Wentz takes on the Seahawks’ weak passing defense. The “Legion of Boom” is long dead, and Seattle is currently giving up a 14th-highest 18.8 FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks. While Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor might be beaten up, Wentz still has his tight ends. I think he’s a smart value option.
