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DraftKings DFS MLB Strategy Advice: Monday (8/10)

Aug 10, 2020

Monday’s Featured Slate brings us nine games to look at as the MLB season has begun to hit its stride. With almost a third of the season gone for most teams, we are beginning to see players settle into trends that may define their 2020 seasons. Let’s take a look at tonight’s value, studs, and fades.

If you have any questions, feel free to direct message me on Twitter @RyanWhitfieldNE.

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Value Plays: Pitcher

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Dallas Keuchel (CWS) @ DET $7,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Ryan Yarbrough (TB) @ BOS $7,200 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Colten Brewer (BOS) vs. TB $4,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ High

The Tigers are in the top half of the league in terms of team batting stats in pretty much every major statistical category, and Keuchel is the sixth most expensive pitcher tonight. However, that’s a fair discount for a guy who has put together three solid starts in 2020. He is 2-1 on the season with a 2.55 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and has held opposing teams to a .217 batting average.

Ryan Yarbrough has had two solid starts (he scored 10-plus fantasy points in both of those) and one bad one this season. The bad news is that bad start was last week against the Red Sox — the team he will face tonight. While they got him last time, the Red Sox rank in the bottom third of the league in terms of runs per game with 4.14. The Red Sox also hit lefties much better than right-handed pitchers. All of this is to say that there is an inherent risk with the play, but betting on a bounce-back performance at this price is worth a look.

On the other side of the Tampa Bay vs. Boston matchup is Colten Brewer. Brewer is set to get his first start (potentially a primary bullpen role) as the Red Sox continue to rearrange their rotation. Brewer has been effective this season with a 2.57 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP, and the Rays have a bottom-four batting average and are in the bottom 10 for runs scored per game. If Colten can remain effective and lengthen out his appearance (he has not thrown more than 44 pitches in a game this season), then he can provide major ROI at this price.

Catcher/First Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Will Smith (LAD) vs. SD $3,900 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Matt Olson (OAK) @ LAA $4,700 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Mitch Moreland (BOS) vs. TB $4,400 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low

Catcher remains a tricky position, but Will Smith gives us some hope tonight. Though he has not produced at a high rate this season, he has slashed .238/.320/.571 against righties, and Garrett Richards has a 5.14 ERA against right-handed hitters. Matt Olson is hitting a dismal .125 against right-handed hitters, but three of his six hits have been home runs, and he has driven in seven runs against righties. In addition to that, Julio Teheran has an 18.0 ERA against left-handed hitters. Olson is a boom or bust proposition, but he’s affordable and has produced five double-digit performances this season. Just in case the Yarbrough play doesn’t pan out, I like betting on Moreland who is red hot right now. He’s priced in the middle of the pack for first base, and he is averaging 11.6 FPPG and has an OPS of 1.299.

Second Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Wilmer Flores (SF) @ HOU $4,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Brandon Lowe (TB) @ BOS $4,600 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

I only have two value plays at second base tonight, and one is Wilmer Flores from the San Francisco Giants. He is slashing .296/.328/.500 and faces Lance McCullers Jr. and his 9.22 ERA and 1.83 WHIP. While I like Colten Brewer as a value play, he’s certainly a gamble given his limited pitches per game. Lowe is slashing .275/.351/.588, is averaging 8.6 FPPG, and there are seven more second baseman priced higher tonight.

Third Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Kyle Seager (SEA) @ TEX $4,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Isiah Kiner-Falefa (TEX) vs. SEA $3,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Yoan Moncada (CWS) @ DET $4,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low

Kyle Seager has been hitless in his last two games, but this is a good time to buy lower on a guy on with 9.0 FPPG and who his facing Kyle Gibson and his 1.27 WHIP. Isiah Kiner-Falefa is a low-risk, high-reward play. He has a .333 batting average this season and is averaging 8.0 FPPG. While he’s no guarantee to have a big game, he’s a low cost, is on a seven-game hitting streak, and faces Justin Dunn and his 6.43 ERA. Moncada is only the eighth-most expensive third baseman, he’s on a seven-game hitting streak, and he faces Michael Fulmer who has a 13.50 ERA and a 2.25 WHIP.

Shortstop

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Xander Bogaerts (BOS) vs. TB $4,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Leury Garcia (CWS) @ DET $3,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

Xander Bogaerts is one of the few Red Sox producing right now with a .319 batting average and a 9.1 FPPG. As was the case with Moncada, Garcia will face an optimal matchup going against Michael Fulmer. He’s batting .273, is averaging 6.9 FPPG, and he comes at a very low cost.

Outfield

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Juan Soto (WAS) @ NYM $5,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Max Kepler (MIN) @ MIL $4,600 ⭐⭐⭐ High
Brandon Lowe (TB) @ BOS $4,600 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Luis Robert (CWS) @ DET $4,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Kyle Lewis (SEA) @ TEX $3,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low

With just three games under his belt in 2020, Juan Soto is averaging 9.7 FPPG but is hitless against lefties. That said, it’s a small sample size. Soto had a better average vs. lefties than righties last season, and Steven Matz was not good against left-handed hitters last season. Max Kepler is a riskier play, but he has a cheaper price tag than Soto. He faces a tough matchup against Adrian Houser, but he’s fared worse against left-handed hitters (though still only allowing a 1.67 batting average), and Kepler is averaging 10.1 FPPG. For all of the reasons I listed for Brandon Lowe at second base, they also apply here thanks to his 2B/OF designation. For the third time today, I’m looking at playing against Michael Fulmer. For Luis Robert’s part in this, he is hitting .302, averaging 8.8 FPPG, and has only been held hitless in a game three times this season. Kyle Lewis will face a guy who allows people on base tonight in Kyle Gibson, and Lewis is batting .355 and averaging 9.4 FPPG.

5 Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Charlie Blackmon (COL) $5,800: Charlie Blackmon is averaging 12.3 FPPG and faces Robbie Ray who has a 15.43 ERA against lefties.
  • Mookie Betts (LAD) $6,100: Betts is averaging 9.4 FPPG, has a favorable matchup, and is on a team that continues to produce a ton of runs (second-most in the league).
  • Trevor Story (COL) $6,100: While Robbie Ray has been better against right-handed hitters, he still has an eight-plus ERA against them and Story is averaging 10.7 FPPG.
  • Donovan Solano (SF) $5,100: With second base being a hard spot to find good production, Solano is hard to ignore. He has a great matchup, he has a 1.111 OPS, and is averaging 9.7 FPPG.
  • Adrian Houser (MIL) $8,400: Houser has been dominant against both handed hitters this season. He has held each side to a sub-2.00 ERA and a sub-.200 batting average.

5 Notable Players to Fade

  • Patrick Corbin (WAS) $10,400: Corbin has been good with a 3.00 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP this season, and the Mets are in the bottom third of the league in terms of runs per game. However, the Mets have the fourth-best batting average. Since Corbin hasn’t been dominant and sits at a high price point, I’m looking elsewhere.
  • Sean Manaea (OAK) $8,800: The Angels are in the top half of the league in runs scored per game. Manaea has an 8.03 ERA, is averaging 6.3 FPPG, and is the second-most expensive pitcher tonight. This is an easy pass.
  • Max Muncy (LAD) $5,300: Muncy is the most expensive first baseman tonight while batting .177 and averaging 7.2 FPPG.
  • Jose Altuve (HOU) $5,600: Altuve is hitting just .182 and has only three multi-hit games this season.
  • Rafael Devers (BOS) $5,200: Devers is hitting .175, has a .593 OPS, and only had five fantasy points against Yarbrough last week.

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Ryan Whitfield is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Ryan, check out his archive and follow him @RyanWhitfieldNE.

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