The top ace on the slate makes an appearance in the studs worth their salary section, and only two value pitchers make the cut as GPP pivots for hitter-heavy lineup builds. With my preference for building around a five-figure ace in mind, the value plays at hitters are true bargains. The other studs worth their salary are featured with GPPs in mind and are largely there with the intent of stacking, while the notable fades section is littered with pitchers who are a bit too pricey for what they bring to the table.
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Value Plays: Pitcher
| NAME (TEAM) | OPPONENT | PRICE | MATCHUP | RISK |
| Randy Dobnak (MIN) | vs. KC | $7,500 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Medium |
| Yonny Chirinos (TB) | @ TOR (Buffalo) | $6,700 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Medium |
The Twins and Dobnak are sizable -188 moneyline favorite, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. Dobnak is outpitching his peripherals with a 0.90 ERA in four starts spanning 20.0 innings, but he’s a ground-ball inducing machine with a 66.7 GB%, per FanGraphs. He has a drool-worthy matchup with the Royals, but his low strikeout rate (14.5 K%) creates some risk since he’s unlikely to earn strikeouts to offset earned runs.
Chirinos is listed as the probable starter for the Rays and is expected to be activated from the IL for the start. Be sure to double-check that there aren’t any setbacks or changes between the time of publication and the first pitch. The Blue Jays play their home games in Buffalo now, and the link in the table above is to a Baseball America piece with minor league park factors. Buffalo’s ballpark enhances homers a bit with a 1.069 park factor for dingers, but it also suppresses runs a bit with a park factor of 0.980 for them. The draw for using Chirinos is his small salary coupled with more strikeout potential than the aforementioned Dobnak. Chirinos’ 17.9 K% through two starts belies his excellent 13.6 SwStr%, and he managed a more useful 21.5 K% last year. I’d only use Dobnak or Chirinos in GPPs if looking to stack one or two of the pricier offenses.
Catcher/First Base
| NAME (TEAM) | OPPONENT | PRICE | MATCHUP | RISK |
| Jesus Aguilar (MIA) | vs. ATL | $3,200 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Low |
| Yuli Gurriel (HOU) | vs. SEA | $3,000 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Low |
| Miguel Sano (MIN) | vs. KC | $2,900 | ⭐⭐ | High |
The Astros are massive -245 favorites in a game with an over/under total of 9.5 runs, and Gurriel represents cheap exposure to that in a plus matchup. Aguilar’s my favorite option at the catcher/first base spot today, though. He’s in the midst of a bounce-back campaign with four homers, a .333 OBP, .264 ISO, and 138 wRC+ in 60 plate appearances this year. He has a five-star matchup against fill-in starter Robbie Erlin. Erlin’s yielded a .497 SLG and .346 wOBA to righties faced since last year.
Second Base
| NAME (TEAM) | OPPONENT | PRICE | MATCHUP | RISK |
| Keston Hiura (MIL) | @ CHC | $3,100 | ⭐⭐⭐ | High |
| Garrett Hampson (COL) | vs. TEX | $3,000 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Low |
| Luis Arraez (MIN) | vs. KC | $2,200 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Low |
Hampson gets the Coors Field boost at an affordable price, but spinning all the way down to Arraez to save salary for the top pitching option is my preference. Arraez’s .382 OBP and 123 wRC+ against righties since reaching the Majors last year are far better numbers than one should get from a player who’s priced only $200 above the minimum salary.
Third Base
| NAME (TEAM) | OPPONENT | PRICE | MATCHUP | RISK |
| Brian Anderson (MIA) | vs. ATL | $3,200 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Low |
| Marwin Gonzalez (MIN) | vs. KC | $2,500 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Medium |
| Travis Shaw (TOR) | vs. TB | $2,500 | ⭐⭐ | Medium |
Gonzalez offers some stack appeal with Miguel Sano and Arraez, but I’d slightly prefer Shaw as a standalone play at the same price. Having said that, Anderson’s my favorite option at the hot corner. He’s beginning to fully blossom with four homers, a .286 ISO, .362 OBP, and 146 wRC+ through 58 plate appearances this year. Anderson kicked his power up last year and has raised his power surge to a new level this year. He’ll benefit from the same five-star matchup as Aguilar, and hooking the two together makes for a great move today.
Shortstop
| NAME (TEAM) | OPPONENT | PRICE | MATCHUP | RISK |
| Carlos Correa (HOU) | vs. SEA | $3,200 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Low |
| J.P. Crawford (SEA) | @ HOU | $2,900 | ⭐⭐⭐ | Medium |
| Jorge Polanco (MIN) | vs. KC | $2,700 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Low |
Polanco is another stacking option from the Twins, but he could also be an underpriced option as a standalone play. Since 2017, he has a .362 OBP, .174 ISO and, 121 wRC+ against righties. Additionally, he has the best lineup spot of the Twins featured to this point hitting second.
If you have the extra salary space, Correa’s a great play, too. Facing lefties since 2017, he owns a .425 OBP, .185 ISO, and 157 wRC+. He also has a tasty matchup with Justus Sheffield, and his .347 wOBA coughed up to right-handed batters since last year.
Outfield
| NAME (TEAM) | OPPONENT | PRICE | MATCHUP | RISK |
| Michael Conforto (NYM) | @ PHI | $3,100 | ⭐⭐⭐ | Low |
| Dominic Smith (NYM) | @ PHI | $3,100 | ⭐⭐⭐ | High |
| Matt Kemp (COL) | vs. TEX | $3,000 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Medium |
| Franmil Reyes (CLE) | @ DET | $2,700 | ⭐⭐⭐ | High |
| Kyle Schwarber (CHC) | vs. MIL | $2,700 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Medium |
The Mets are facing former Met Zack Wheeler today. Wheeler hasn’t been pounded by left-handed hitters, but they’ve recorded a solid .329 wOBA against him since last year. Conforto is grossly underpriced with a .386 OBP, .244 ISO, and 140 wRC+ since 2017. Smith, meanwhile, has benefited from the universal DH and is a power-packed option with a .244 ISO against righties since 2017. Both will get a sizable boost to their homer potential with Citizens Bank Park’s park factor of 1.179 for left-handed homers, the fourth-highest mark according to our MLB Park Factors.
Kemp gets the Coors Field bump. “Franimal” and Schwarber offer some big power upside that plays well in GPPs.
5 Studs Worth Their Salary
- Max Scherzer (WSH) $11,100: Scherzer has struck out a staggering 34.9% of the batters he’s faced through four starts this year, and his upside is unmatched on this slate.
- Nolan Arenado (COL) $4,300: See below.
- Charlie Blackmon (COL) $4,300: See below.
- Trevor Story (COL) $4,200: I’ve routinely pointed out the home splits for this trio of stud hitters from the Rockies, and without regurgitating them again, they can be summed up as eye-popping. If you’re fading Scherzer’s upside, it better be with stacking the Rockies studs in mind.
- Anthony Rizzo (CHC) $3,700: Josh Lindblom has been tattooed by the lefties he’s faced in his stateside return this year. He’s coughed up four homers, a .406 OBP, and .484 wOBA to the 32 lefties he’s faced.
5 Notable Players to Fade
- Zack Wheeler (PHI) $8,400: Wheeler has a tough matchup today, and, although his 11.6 SwStr% this year is good, it hasn’t translated to punchouts with just an 11.0 K%.
- Jon Lester (CHC) $8,300: Lester’s pitching to contact at an absurd rate with just a 3.9 SwStr% that feels like it belongs in the dead-ball era. Somehow he’s struck out a higher percentage of batters than Wheeler has, but a 13.6 K% is simply too low for a pitcher priced north of $8,000.
- Dallas Keuchel (CHW) $7,900: Keuchel makes it a trio of low-strikeout pitchers who should be faded with only a 15.8 K%. He’s a slightly pricier version of Dobnak, who is a shorter favorite. Just spin down to Dobnak instead.
- Pete Alonso (NYM) $3,500: While I love the left-handed Mets duo of Conforto and Smith, Wheeler’s been tough on righties holding them to a .270 wOBA since last year. It’s a bad spot to pay up for Alonso unless you’re running a full-blown Mets stack (which, for full disclosure, I do like as an option for gamers running multiple GPP lineups).
- Jose Altuve (HOU) $3,500: Altuve was demoted to the seventh spot in the order against a lefty last night, and the demotion makes him overpriced. If he’s bumped back up to the two-hole, he’s defensible.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
