Week 4 of the 2020 NFL season will go down as the week of the non-rostered kicker, as eight of the top 10 kickers in fantasy all had a roster percentage of less than 15%. The two top kickers, Sam Ficken and Jason Sanders, each scored 18 fantasy points, yet they were rostered in fewer than 1% of Yahoo leagues. Five different kickers managed to post at least for field goals, and only one extra point was missed on the day.
Chances are that if you owned one of the top-ranked kickers based on ECR, you were disappointed at the result, as none of the top-five kickers managed to score double-digit fantasy points. None of the top five ranked kickers missed a field goal or extra point. They were just victims of negative game scripts in their respective matchups.
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Week 4 Stud Performances from widely available kickers
Jason Sanders (MIA) vs. SEA: 1% rostership on Yahoo
Sanders continues to be a sneaky-good fantasy kicker despite being owned in just 1% of leagues. The former University of New Mexico Lobo hit all five field-goal attempts against the Seahawks to score an impressive 18 fantasy points. Sanders now has 36 points in his last four games, and he plays the 49ers this week, which could lead to more field goal chances against a solid defense.
Sam Ficken (NYJ) vs. SF: 0% rostership on Yahoo
Ficken and Brandon McManus held a kicking clinic on Thursday Night Football, and the two players combined for eight field goals in one of the more boring TNF games in recent memory. Of the two stud kickers who are widely available, I would not recommend picking up Ficken based on the fact that the Jets offense ranks dead last in yards per game.
Week 4 Dud Performances from widely-rostered kickers
Greg Zuerlein (DAL) vs. CLE: 97% rostership on Yahoo
The Cowboys defense is allowing a ridiculous 36.5 points per game, including 49 points on Sunday to Baker Mayfield and the Browns. A negative game script killed Greg the Leg’s chances for field goals and extra points, as Dallas was forced to go for two and forego field goal attempts. While I want to say that this was an anomaly, I am concerned that the dreadful Cowboy defense will continue to present negative kicking game scripts going forward.
Robbie Gould (SF) vs. PHI: 94% rostership on Yahoo
Gould entered Week 4 averaging 11 fantasy points in his first three games, making him one of the most consistent players in the first month of the season. Unfortunately, the 49ers offense struggled against the Eagles on Sunday Night Football, leaving fantasy owners with just two points for Gould. At this point, I would not recommend dropping Gould for another option. He should bounce back this week against the Dolphins.
Kicker Rankings
| Rank | ECR | Name | TEAM | Opponent | Spread | O/U | OPP RZ D | RZ EFF* | OFF RNK | K Score** | Weather |
| 1 | 1 | Justin Tucker | BAL | vs. CIN | 46.5 | -13 | 8 | 11 | 25 | 44 | 66F, rain, 6 mph wind |
| 2 | 2 | Harrison Butker | KC | vs. LV | 43 | 12 | 21 | 23 | 5 | 49 | 75F, 12 mph wind |
| 3 | 3 | Wil Lutz | NO | vs. LAC | 50 | -7.5 | 3 | 20 | 17 | 40 | Dome |
| 4 | 5 | Jason Myers | SEA | vs. MIN | 49.5 | -9 | 2 | 31 | 3 | 36 | 54F, 11 mph, light rain |
| 5 | 6 | Robbie Gould | SF | vs. MIA | 46.5 | -8.5 | 30 | 17 | 11 | 58 | 69F, 6 mph wind |
| 6 | 4 | Greg Zuerlein | DAL | vs. NYG | 44 | -11 | 20 | 24 | 1 | 45 | Dome |
| 7 | 7 | Zane Gonzalez | ARI | at NYJ | 44.5 | -8.5 | 14 | 28 | 18 | 60 | 69F, 5 mph wind |
| 8 | 8 | Rodrigo Blankenship | IND | at CLE | 46.5 | -2.5 | 25 | 4 | 21 | 50 | 68F, 12 mph wind |
| 9 | 12 | Nick Folk | NE | vs. DEN | 48.5 | -10 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 24 | 65F, 5 mph wind |
| 10 | 11 | Sam Sloman | LAR | at WAS | 40 | 9.5 | 17 | 18 | 7 | 42 | 65F, rain, 5 mph wind |
| 11 | 9 | Joey Slye | CAR | at ATL | 55 | 3.5 | 29 | 6 | 12 | 47 | Dome |
| 12 | 10 | Ka’imi Fairbairn | HOU | vs. JAC | 47 | -6.5 | 16 | 14 | 27 | 57 | Dome |
| 13 | 19 | Daniel Carlson | LV | at KC | 43 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 15 | 37 | 75F, 12 mph wind |
| 14 | 13 | Tyler Bass | BUF | at TEN | 49 | 6.5 | 31 | 21 | 4 | 56 | 69F, 6 mph wind, rain |
| 15 | 14 | Chris Boswell | PIT | vs. PHI | 44 | -7 | 23 | 7 | 14 | 44 | 67F, rain, 6 mph wind |
| 16 | 15 | Stephen Gostkowski | TEN | vs. BUF | 49 | -6.5 | 15 | 26 | 10 | 51 | 69F, 6 mph wind, rain |
| 17 | 16 | Ryan Succop | TB | at CHI | 45.5 | -3 | 1 | 30 | 16 | 47 | 60F, 6 mph wind |
| 18 | 17 | Michael Badgley | LAC | at NO | 50 | 7.5 | 32 | 16 | 6 | 54 | Dome |
| 19 | 18 | Dan Bailey | MIN | at SEA | 49.5 | 9 | 18 | 27 | 22 | 67 | 54F, 11 mph, light rain |
| 20 | 25 | Cairo Santos | CHI | vs. TB | 4.5 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 24 | 38 | 60F, 6 mph wind |
| 21 | 20 | Jake Elliott | PHI | at PIT | 44 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 28 | 40 | 67F, rain, 6 mph wind |
| 22 | 21 | Randy Bullock | CIN | at BAL | 46.5 | 13 | 28 | 2 | 20 | 50 | 66F, rain, 6 mph wind |
| 23 | 22 | Elliott Fry | ATL | vs. CAR | 55 | -3.5 | 27 | 15 | 8 | 50 | Dome |
| 24 | 23 | Jason Sanders | MIA | at SF | 46.5 | 8.5 | 7 | 13 | 23 | 43 | 69F, 6 mph wind |
| 25 | 24 | Graham Gano | NYG | at DAL | 44 | 11 | 22 | 0 | 32 | 54 | Dome |
| 26 | 26 | Cody Parkey | CLE | vs. IND | 46.5 | 2.5 | 19 | 29 | 13 | 61 | 68F, 12 mph wind |
| 27 | 27 | Brandon McManus | DEN | at NE | 48.5 | 10 | 13 | 3 | 29 | 45 | 65F, 5 mph wind |
| 28 | 28 | Sam Ficken | NYJ | vs. ARI | 44.5 | -8.5 | 5 | 1 | 31 | 37 | 69F, 5 mph wind |
| 29 | 29 | Dustin Hopkins | WAS | vs. LAR | 40 | 9.5 | 12 | 22 | 30 | 64 | 65F, rain, 5 mph wind |
*Red Zone Efficiency is based on the inverse of how well the kicker’s offense does in the red zone. For example, the Ravens rank 21st in red zone efficiency; therefore Justin Tucker has a RZ EFF score of 11. The lower number, the better for kickers, as playing on a team that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone equates to more field goal opportunities.
**The K Score is the sum of a player’s opponent red zone, the red zone efficiency of his offense, and the overall rank of his respective team in terms of total yards. A low score indicates that a kicker has variables working in his favor for a good fantasy kicking performance.
Kicker rankings are based on numerous factors, including matchups, Vegas lines and score projections, weather conditions, the ability of a kicker’s team offense and their ability to move the ball into field goal range, offensive red zone efficiency, and how well the opposing defense limits touchdowns in the red zone. These factors are a guide, but they’re not a definitive way to predict kicking success, as other variables and negative game scripts can significantly impact the outcome.
Based on all of the variables mentioned above, the following two kickers are players ranked outside of the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who could be excellent plays in Week 5.
Sam Sloman (LAR) at WAS: 8% rostership on Yahoo
Rookie Sam Sloman has yet to score more than six fantasy points in a game this season. He ranks 27th on the season in fantasy points scored, and almost nobody in fantasy should have started him in their lineups up to this point. He should only be played in certain matchups against defenses who present a challenge to the Rams’ offense in the red zone. With Chase Young likely returning to the lineup for Washington, the Rams may find it difficult to score touchdowns against the Football Team. This pick also depends on the weather; if it rains in Landover, MD, on Sunday, I would pivot to someone else.
Nick Folk (NE) vs. DEN: 2% rostership on Yahoo
Folk has the top K Score of the week with an excellent matchup at home against a Denver defense that just gave up 18 fantasy points to Sam Ficken. If Cam Newton misses this game and the Patriots roll out Jarrett Stidham or Brian Hoyer, look for the Patriots to struggle again in the red zone and create a ton of kicking opportunities.
Prediction Review
Each week I suggest two kickers ranked outside the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who I believe will be solid performers based on the variables described in the K Score section. The following is a review of my picks from the previous week to see where I was successful and where I missed the mark.
Tyler Bass (BUF) at LV: 2% rostership on Yahoo
- ECR Rank: 13
- My Rank: 1
- Week 4 Finish: T17
In a week of disappointing games by elite kickers, Bass scored more points than widely rostered options like Zane Gonzales, Greg Zuerlein, and Robbie Gould. His five fantasy points gave you a decent floor game, but he missed an extra point that would have given him a more respectable seven points on the day.
Joey Slye (CAR) vs. ARI: 14% rostership on Yahoo
- ECR Rank: 14
- My Rank: 10
- Week 4 Finish: T16
The Panthers offense continues to impress and provided Slye with a nice extra point floor of four points. Slye made a short chip shot attempt but missed a 49-yarder that would have given him a chance to finish as a top-6 play. The opportunity was there, and the K Score proved to be helpful in identifying a chance for a big game, but the second-year kicker did not come through.
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Nick Folk (NE) vs. DEN: 2% rostership on Yahoo
Folk is one of my picks this week based on his top-ranked K Score in what could be a low-scoring game at home against Denver. The Broncos have given up the 10th most points to opposing kickers, and the Patriots offense did not look as sharp without Cam Newton. This may be an ugly game, and Folk and Brandon McManus could do most of the scoring.
Other players to consider: Rodrigo Blankenship (IND) @ Cleveland: 41% rostership on Yahoo
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Andrew Swanson is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive or follow him @FFtoday_Andy.
