Air Yardage Differential & Wide Receiver Efficiency (2021 Fantasy Football)

We often hear about air yards as it relates to player production in fantasy football. However, the way we use this metric may sometimes be misguided, and we can become enamored with the idea of a receiver getting downfield targets. While air yards can certainly account for intent, as we all know, not all targets are created equal.

For this exercise, we looked at three metrics: air yards, receiver air conversion ratio (RACR), and average depth of target (aDOT). Air Yards are pretty self-explanatory, as is aDOT, but RACR is the metric that we will use to determine efficiency. We measure it by dividing receiving yards by air yards. A RACR of 1.0 or better is considered extremely efficient, but for the purposes of this exercise, we’ll consider the most efficient receivers as anyone with a RACR of .85 or better.

Using airyards.com to compile the information below, we will look at the most and least efficient receivers — as well as the ones with the most air yards this season. It will help guide us on how to value a few of them moving forward, with the caveat being that most of the players listed are shoo-in WR1s.

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The Elite and Efficient

Stefon Diggs (WR – BUF)
Air Yards: 1,723
Receiving Yards: 1,535
RACR: 0.89
aDOT: 10.3

Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN)
Air Yards: 1,474
Receiving Yards: 1,400
RACR: 0.95
aDOT: 11.6

Davante Adams (WR – GB)
Air Yards: 1,329
Receiving Yards: 1,374
RACR: 1.03
aDOT: 8.9

DeAndre Hopkins (WR – ARI)
Air Yards: 1,363
Receiving Yards: 1,359
RACR: 1.00
aDOT: 9.3

Amari Cooper (WR – DAL)
Air Yards: 1,137
Receiving Yards: 1,114
RACR: 0.98
aDOT: 8.8

Jefferson and Diggs are the only two receivers who rank in the top-10 of all three metrics. Diggs was not only one of the most productive receivers in football this year, but he was also one of the most efficient. With an aDOT of 10.3, you would expect that a lot of his targets were of the downfield variety, which is true to an extent. However, two things stand out: Diggs ranked seventh among wide receivers with 473 yards after the catch, and he also had almost a 76% catch rate. Targets to Diggs were likely to be caught — and for big yards.

Jefferson was slightly less efficient than Diggs, but he turned 88 catches into 1,400 yards. Jefferson had an outstanding RACR of .95, fourth among all receivers with over 1,000 yards.

Adams and Hopkins lag behind Jefferson and Diggs from a raw air yards perspective, but they were two of the most efficient receivers in football. Adams and Hopkins did a lot of damage after the catch (Adams ranked first among all receivers in YAC), but they were also the only two receivers with 1,000 yards and a RACR of 1.00 or better. Hopkins’ aDOT declined from previous seasons, as did the gaudy volume that we were used to seeing. He is a sell for me this offseason.

Cooper is the surprise here, but with a RACR of 0.98 and a quiet 92 catches, he was statistically one of the league’s best receivers. Touchdowns are fluky and unpredictable, but if Cooper’s touchdown equity improves, he would be a top-eight receiver.

The Air Yard Kings

Calvin Ridley (WR – ATL)
Air Yards: 2,042
Receiving Yards: 1,374
RACR: 0.67
aDOT: 14.1

D.K. Metcalf (WR – SEA)
Air Yards: 1,829
Receiving Yards: 1,303
RACR: 0.71
aDOT: 14.0

Tyreek Hill (WR – KC)
Air Yards: 1,771
Receiving Yards: 1,276
RACR: 0.72
aDOT: 13.2

This trio led the league in air yards but was less efficient than the aforementioned group. With these three comes the potential for blowup games:

Metcalf’s Big Games
Metcalf (Week 1): 4/95/1
Metcalf (Week 2): 4/92/1
Metcalf (Week 3): 4/110/1
Metcalf (Week 4): 4/106
Metcalf (Week 8): 12/161/2
Metcalf (Week 12): 10/177
Metcalf (Week 17): 5/96/2

Ridley’s Big Games
Ridley (Week 1): 9/130/2
Ridley (Week 2): 7/109/2
Ridley (Week 3): 5/110
Ridley (Week 5): 8/136
Ridley (Week 13): 5/108
Ridley (Week 14): 8/124/1
Ridley (Week 15): 10/163/1
Ridley (Week 16): 5/130

Hill’s Big Games
Hill (Week 2): 5/99/1
Hill (Week 8): 4/98/2
Hill (Week 9): 9/113/2
Hill (Week 11): 11/102/1
Hill (Week 12): 13/269/3

Most of those performances were of the week-winning variety, which is what you tend to get with elite air yardage receivers. The weekly floor can be somewhat of a concern here, as each of the three had some dud games, but they would’ve carried your team most weeks.

Hill will almost always be in this group due to the combination of his route tree and Patrick Mahomes’ ability to push the ball down the field. Week-winning ceiling games have become the norm for him. Metcalf took a major step forward this year, but, in the same breath as Hill, we have come to expect this out of him. The biggest question for Metcalf is whether the Seahawks will let Russell Wilson cook next year. If they revert to a more run-based approach, Metcalf could disappoint.

As for Ridley, he should be one of the bigger buys of the offseason. Julio Jones will be 32 next year, and with an offensive-minded coach in Arthur Smith taking over in Atlanta, Ridley should continue to feast. He may not get the gaudy air yard numbers he did in 2020, but he is a sure bet to end up in the top-10.

The Inefficient

Jerry Jeudy (WR – DEN)
Air Yards: 1,620
Receiving Yards: 856
RACR: 0.53
aDOT: 14.5

AJ Green (WR – CIN)
Air Yards: 1,478
Receiving Yards: 523
RACR: 0.35
aDOT: 14.1

DJ Chark (WR – JAC)
Air Yards: 1,318
Receiving Yards: 706
RACR: 0.54
aDOT: 14.0

Darius Slayton (WR – NYG)
Air Yards: 1,311
Receiving Yards: 751
RACR: 0.57
aDOT: 13.5

These are some of the least efficient receivers from an air yards perspective, but the reason for each one differs. Green is the biggest outlier; he’ll turn 33 next year and will probably end up on a different offense. Whether or not he remains an elite downfield threat remains to be seen, but I am betting against him.

Slayton’s air yardage numbers here are healthy, and the Giants should be better on offense next year with the return of Saquon Barkley. If Daniel Jones takes a step forward, Slayton may be a nice late-round target next summer.

The two that most excite me are Chark and Jeudy, both of whom could benefit from a change at quarterback heading into next year. Chark’s disappointing 2020 will almost certainly cause his ADP to fall a round or two heading into next season, which will make him a nice bargain. With Trevor Lawrence and Urban Meyer heading to Jacksonville, there is reason to be bullish on the Jaguars offense as a whole. I liked Chark this year and will be in on him again next year.

As for Jeudy, we expected some struggles in his rookie season, but tallying over 1,600 air yards should give us cause for optimism. If Denver upgrades at quarterback with someone like Matt Stafford, Jeudy would see his stock skyrocket.

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Jason Kamlowsky is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @JasonKamlowsky.

NFL Stefon Diggs Justin Jefferson Davante Adams DeAndre Hopkins Amari Cooper Calvin Ridley D.K. Metcalf Tyreek Hill Patrick Mahomes’ Russell Wilson Julio Jones Jerry Jeudy AJ Green DJ Chark Darius Slayton Saquon Barkley Daniel Jones Trevor Lawrence Matt Stafford