Best NFL Plays for Week 17 at No House Advantage
The DFS market has exploded in recent years, and you’ve got a plethora of options aside from the big-names of DraftKings and FanDuel. No House Advantage (NHA) is one such upstart competitor, and the site has eschewed the traditional salary cap structure in favor of ranked prop bets.
What does that mean? At NHA, you must pick a set number of individual player prop lines, take the over or under, and put them in order. The higher you rank a line, the more points you receive if it hits.
If you’re an experienced DFS player, you know that the payout structure will dictate your strategy. For this week’s 275-person $5,000 Week 17 Finale, 40% of the prize pool goes to first place, so you’ll want to aim for perfection. This column earned an overall 26-9 record on NBA bets, and that included three perfect lineups. I’m currently 53-48 on the NFL season thus far.
Best High-Priority Prop Plays
Derrick Henry (TEN): OVER 109.5 Rushing Yards (S)
This play is common sense. The Titans will face the Texans this weekend, and Houston has given up the second-most rushing yards per game this season (151.7). Henry even ran for 212 yards against them back in Week 6.
While I am a little wary of how high this line is set, it’s somehow still below Henry’s average rushing yards per game (118.5). Given Houston’s struggles against the run and Henry’s heavy workload, you should feature this play high in your lineup.
Daniel Jones (NYG): UNDER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
The Giants might be in a must-win spot, but they’re averaging only 8.7 points over their last three games. Jones started two of those matchups, and he threw a total of one passing touchdown. He’s thrown multiple touchdowns just three times all year, and he hasn’t done so since Week 8.
To be fair, he’ll have a soft defensive opponent this weekend in the Dallas Cowboys. They’re letting up an average of 2.1 passing touchdowns per game, which does give me some pause, but not enough for me to avoid this line. Why? Jones failed to throw a single touchdown pass against them in Week 5. Instead of having Jones pass near the goal line, the Giants ran it in with Devonta Freeman and Evan Engram.
Best Mid-Priority Prop Plays
A.J. Brown (TEN): UNDER 5.5 Receptions (S)
Brown is a phenomenal receiver, but the Titans are up against the Texans this week, so it’s the Derrick Henry Show. Brown caught just five passes against Houston earlier in the year, and he’s averaging only 4.6 catches per game. He’s beaten this total just three times all year, and Henry failed to eclipse the century mark in two of those games.
Since I expect Henry to gash the Texans for another triple-digit showing, I’ll fade Brown’s total receptions. The Titans simply won’t need him to win this game.
Ryan Tannehill (TEN): UNDER 0.5 Interceptions (S)
Tannehill won’t need to throw much for the Titans to top the Texans. And even if he does attempt a bunch of passes, he probably won’t get picked off, as the Texans have recorded just three interceptions all year — and J.J. Watt was responsible for one of those.
That said, Tannehill is one of the unlucky three quarterbacks (Jake Luton and Matthew Stafford are the other two) to have been picked off by the Texans this season. This line should be a safe play — I don’t expect lightning to strike twice — but it only takes one tipped pass for it to bust, so I wouldn’t feature it that high in your lineup.
Calvin Ridley (ATL): OVER 96.5 Receiving Yards
I would usually stay away from a line set so high, but Ridley just posted 163 yards on 10 receptions against the Buccaneers two weeks ago, and he should have a similarly large role this Sunday.
Ridley is averaging 94.4 receiving yards per game, which is only a notch below this line, even though he worked alongside Julio Jones for most of his games. But Jones has missed the last three contests, and Ridley is averaging 139 yards per game through that stretch. I’m prioritizing his yardage over his receptions total (6.5) because he’s only averaged 7.7 receptions per game over the last three weeks (which includes a five-catch showing last week), making his yardage seem like a safer option.
Tom Brady (TB): OVER 300.5 Passing Yards
Brady threw for 390 passing yards against the Falcons two weeks ago. He’s averaged 319.8 passing yards over his last four contests and is averaging 282.3 on the year.
The veteran quarterback has had some off days this season, of course. But the Atlanta Falcons surrender 301.3 passing yards per game to opposing signal-callers, and this line is too tantalizing to pass up. Brady should throw for at least 301 yards unless the Falcons fall behind early, but the 17-point first-half lead Atlanta built over Tampa Bay in Week 15 suggests that they won’t.
Best Low-Priority Prop Plays
David Montgomery (CHI): OVER 76.5 Rushing Yards
David Montgomery and the Bears will take on the Packers tomorrow, and Green Bay has allowed 93.1 yards per game to opposing rushers. That isn’t terrible, but they let Montgomery get 103 on 11 carries back in Week 12, and this over is 4-1 in his last four appearances.
While the Packers will want to lock down their bye week, the Bears have a chance to play spoiler at Soldier Field. Montgomery was incredibly efficient on his few touches the last time these teams met, and I’m comfortable betting the over here as a result.
Davante Adams (GB): UNDER 7.5 Receptions
It feels heretical to bet against Adams, but it’s Week 17, and that’s where we are. Adams is just two catches away from his career-high of 111 in a single season, and he’s only 58 yards from his career-best 1,386. So why, then, do I like this under?
The Chicago Bears have played well against opposing wideouts. They’ve given up the sixth-fewest total receptions to the position, and Adams only caught six passes against them back in Week 12. The star receiver may lead the league in receiving touchdowns, but he’s averaging only 8.4 receptions per game, and he’s failed to clear this total in seven of his 15 games this year.
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