The Game Plan: Week 4 Edition (2021 Fantasy Football)

Cleveland Browns vs Minnesota Vikings

Date/Time: Sunday October 3, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Browns -2
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 53 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Browns 27.5, Vikings 25.5

Cleveland Browns

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Minnesota Vikings

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Quarterback

Cleveland: Baker Mayfield certainly didn’t get a ton done in week three from a production standpoint, but he really didn’t need to with the way Cleveland was playing. This game against Minnesota figures to be a bit closer all the way through and Cleveland will probably need Baker a bit more in this matchup. There’s of course always the potential that the running game takes over for the Browns offense, but Baker should provide a safe floor this week. He can be viewed as a low-end streaming option against the Vikings.

Minnesota: Did you know that Kirk Cousins is currently on pace for 5,202 passing yards, 45 passing TDs, and zero interceptions? We know those numbers won’t stand up by the end of the season, but Cousins has been playing excellent football over the past few weeks and it’s coming through for fantasy purposes. He’s coming off of a 323 passing yard performance to go with three touchdowns and he now has a 73% completion rate on the entire season. He needs to be given the respect he deserves for what he’s doing on the field this year and he’s slowly working his way into the every-week starter consideration. Against a stout defense like Cleveland, it’s probably best to adjust expectations though, and put Cousins in the mid-range QB2 conversation versus a locked-in QB1.

Running Backs

Cleveland: Nick Chubb took advantage of a favorable game script in week three and he saw a season-high 22 carries. While it didn’t lead to top-tier fantasy production, he still succeeded despite a tough matchup on the ground. Chubb has yet to finish with less than 83 rushing yards in a game and there’s a lot to be said for that level of consistency from your RB1 spot. We know he has the upside to find the end zone any given week, so there’s no reason to downgrade him based on this performance. Chubb should be viewed as a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 yet again in week four against Minnesota. Kareem Hunt exploded back onto the scene in a big way last week after being a bit of a disappointment in week two. Hunt rumbled for 8.1 YPC on 10 attempts last week and added a touchdown too. He forced 5 missed tackles in the game against the Bears, ripped off 61 total Yards After Contact, and added 74 receiving yards on six receptions too. He simply could not be contained and he made the most of his opportunity. Hunt will continue to be a game-script-dependent RB that will need to find the end zone to crack the top-20 at the position, but he certainly comes with upside any given week. He can be viewed as a low-end RB2/high-end RB3 for this matchup.

Minnesota: Dalvin Cook returned to practice on Wednesday and appears to be trending towards suiting up for this matchup. When he’s on the field and healthy, we know exactly what we’re getting from him. He’s a top-3 start every single week.

Wide Receivers

Cleveland: With Jarvis Landry out of the lineup, Odell Beckham made a significant impact on the field in his season debut against the Bears. Beckham saw a 29% target share in his first game back in action and he reeled in five of those nine targets for 77 yards. Beckham looked to be on the same page with Baker all game long, which was one of the main concerns after watching this duo last season. Moving forward, OBJ needs to rise back up Rest-Of-Season Rankings and he belongs squarely in the low-end WR2 conversation as long as Landry is out of the lineup.

Minnesota: Justin Jefferson has been a force to be reckoned with again through the start of the 2021 NFL season. He now has 29 targets, 20 receptions, 254 receiving yards, and two touchdowns through the first three games and he’s currently the WR10 on the year. He’s providing an extremely high floor for fantasy managers and he’s proving that last year’s breakout was no fluke. Jefferson should draw coverage from Denzel Ward this week, which will be a fun matchup to watch but it shouldn’t slow down the second-year wideout. He can be viewed as a mid-range WR1 yet again. Adam Thielen certainly hasn’t been efficient this season, but he’s returning value for fantasy managers that drafted him as a mid-range WR2 due to his touchdown upside. Through the first three weeks of the season, Thielen is tied with a handful of other players for the second-most TDs in the NFL with four. With Cousins playing fantastic football lately, Thielen has continued his ridiculous touchdown rate from last year and it’s translating to fantasy success. He’s now averaging seven receptions, 60 receiving yards, and 1.3 receiving touchdowns per game. In a tougher matchup against Cleveland, Thielen might not put up crazy receiving yardage but he has an excellent chance of finding the end zone like usual. KJ Osborn had been on the verge of breaking out after a solid first two games, but he took a back seat last week to Conklin in this offense. Osborn is now back to a bench stash in deeper formats.

Tight Ends

Cleveland: Austin Hooper was able to find the end zone in week three, but he did it on the back of just three total targets. This TE room in Cleveland is still extremely unpredictable, which makes projecting it for fantasy purposes a nightmare. Hooper should remain in the mid-range/low-end TE2 conversation that you’re simply hoping finds the end zone. If he doesn’t, you’re going to regret starting him.

Minnesota: When Irv Smith went down with his season-ending injury, some of the discussion turned to the potential next man up in Minnesota. Tyler Conklin had shown flashes of his talent and athleticism in different spurts in 2020, but there was some uncertainty regarding whether or not he would be able to handle an increased role. Conklin got off to a slow start, but he emerged in a big way last week against Seattle with seven receptions for 70 yards and a touchdown. With so many other TE options struggling this season, Conklin is worth picking up off of the waiver wire and potentially starting in this matchup against Cleveland. It’s still a risky move because we don’t know if last week was a fluke performance or not, but there absolutely is an opportunity for him to continue being a solid fantasy option in this Vikings offense.

FantasyProjection Buster: The Cleveland TE room.

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Washington Football Team vs Atlanta Falcons

Date/Time: Sunday October 3, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Washington -1.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 48 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Washington 24.75, Falcons 23.25

Washington Football Team

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Atlanta Falcons

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Quarterback

Washington: Taylor Heinicke had a tough matchup in front of him last week against the Bills secondary and he did struggle as a passer. He had just a 58.3% completion rate, he only threw for 212 yards, and he had two interceptions to go with his two touchdowns. However, he did show off his mobility and was able to find the end zone as a runner which helped fantasy managers that played him in a tough matchup. This week against Atlanta, Heinicke should have an easier time out there, but he’s still not quite on the 1QB streaming radar. He’ll be a fine option as a QB2 in Superflex formats, but there are better options available in your traditional leagues.

Atlanta: Matt Ryan was able to put together a fairly solid performance in week three against the Giants with a 75% completion rate, 243 passing yards, and two touchdowns with zero interceptions. However, even with that decent of a stat line he still finished as the QB22 on the week due to his lack of mobility. Without the cheap rushing yardage that so many other QBs in the NFL now are able to pick up, Ryan can have a solid day passing but he’s going to trail behind them simply due to the fact that he doesn’t have the same type of rushing ability. Looking ahead to week four, Ryan is off the redraft radar in 1QB formats, but he’s an intriguing sneaky play in Superflex leagues. Washington has stars littered all across their defense, but they are currently allowing the most fantasy points to opposing QBs through three weeks. They also are the fourth-worst ranked team in Total Defensive DVOA, which is a massive surprise given the talent that this unit has at their disposal. We shouldn’t be expecting crazy things from Ryan, but he might have more upside in this matchup than we’d anticipate at first glance.

Running Backs

Washington: Everyone was seemingly panicked about Antonio Gibson through the first two weeks, but he quieted people’s fears just a bit after ripping off a 73-yard highlight-reel touchdown reception in week three against Buffalo. The Bills kept Gibson in check on the ground, but he reminded people that he’s one of the most talented backs in the entire NFL with that long reception. Now in week four, Gibson should get right back to his efficient ways against a defense that is allowing 118.3 rushing yards per game. Gibson can be viewed as a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 yet again this week. JD McKissic made an impact for fantasy football in week two, but he was merely just a change-of-pace option yet again in week three against the Bills. McKissic only logged five total touches and he should remain in this type of role moving forward. He can be dropped back to your league’s waiver wire if you picked him up after week two.

Atlanta: We’ve all come to the collective conclusion that there is essentially zero upside with Mike Davis this year, right? Davis is currently averaging 12 rush attempts per game, 46 rushing yards, zero rushing touchdowns, five receptions, 23 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns. While there’s a place for this in fantasy lineups that need stability from their RB2 or RB3, fantasy managers have very little excitement plugging Davis into their starting lineup at this point. Against Washington, Davis should be viewed as a mid-range RB3 at best.

Wide Receivers

Washington: Terry McLaurin was quiet in week three against the Bills, but that was to be expected given the tough matchup against Buffalo’s secondary. However – as McLaurin essentially always does – he provided fantasy managers with a very safe floor. Now, against the Atlanta secondary that’s allowing 2.7 passing touchdowns per game so far, McLaurin should be in line for a bigger performance. He can be viewed as a high-end/mid-range WR2 this week.

Atlanta: It’s true that Calvin Ridley is no longer providing the massive upside that he was week after week last season, but he’s still giving managers a safe enough floor to be viewed as a high-end WR2. He still has a 24.8% target share in this offense for the entire season and he has a total of six red-zone targets too. He’ll have his moments where he’ll be able to convert some of those key targets into points that will push him up into the top-10 on the week, but he’ll still provide a high floor in the meantime. Against the Washington secondary that is currently allowing the 4th most fantasy points to opposing WRs, Ridley should be viewed as a high-end WR2. Over the past two weeks, Patterson has now logged 14 carries for 31 yards, and a touchdown to go with 14 targets, 11 receptions, 140 receiving yards, and another receiving touchdown. He’s the RB6 through that time span and he’s absolutely making an impact for fantasy rosters. With his positional versatility, he offers an advantage that not many other players possess at the WR position for your fantasy lineups. He’s now entering into the weekly FLEX conversation and he obviously does come with some upside due to his skill set and athleticism.

Tight Ends

Washington: Logan Thomas has now scored a touchdown in three of his last four games going back to last season. While he’s not breaking records in terms of receiving yardage – he’s only averaging 39 yards per game – he’s getting the job done for fantasy football with his propensity for finding the end zone. Against the defense that’s allowing 2.7 passing touchdowns per game so far this season, Thomas stands an excellent chance of scoring six again this week. He can be started as a low-end TE1 with upside in this matchup.

Atlanta: Kyle Pitts put up yet another mediocre performance in week three, but he came close to having a much bigger game as he drew Defensive Pass Interference in the end zone on one specific play that could’ve resulted in a touchdown. For what fantasy managers were expecting when they drafted Pitts, he’s been a major disappointment through the first three weeks. He’s now only averaging 4 receptions per game for 46 yards and zero scores. Fantasy managers are going to need to start seeing some dramatic improvement from Pitts or it might be time to start looking for a replacement option. Against a Washington defense that’s middle-of-the-pack in defending opposing TEs, Pitts can be viewed as a low-end TE1.

FantasyProjection Buster: Can Kyle Pitts connect on the end zone targets? If he does, he’ll outperform expectations.

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Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills

Date/Time: Sunday October 3, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Bills -16.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 48 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Bills 32.25, Texans 15.75

Houston Texans

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Buffalo Bills

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Quarterback

Houston: Davis Mills looked capable and competent in week three, but Houston did their best to keep things close to the vest and limit his ability to make mistakes. He was able to provide fantasy value to Cooks, but he certainly didn’t do enough to put himself on the redraft radar. Now against the Buffalo Bills secondary, Mills shouldn’t be anywhere near your starting lineups in week four. Even in Superflex formats, it’s probably best to look elsewhere.

Buffalo: No, you can’t go back and delete them! I saw the messages last week asking if you should sit Josh Allen. While there was no universe in which I was going to sit Allen in my fantasy lineups, I understood where people were coming from when they were asking that question. Allen certainly had not been performing well for fantasy purposes through two weeks, especially considering how early you drafted him in your drafts this off-season. Allen came alive in week three though and he was surgical the entire afternoon, picking apart the stout Washington defense with precision passing and good decision-making. Allen totaled five touchdowns in week three against Washington and probably single-handedly carried some managers to a victory and he now gets to take on the Houston Texans defense. Allen could be viewed as the number on overall QB in rankings going into this matchup. Start him with supreme confidence this week.

Running Backs

Houston: Mark Ingram was the most productive Texans running back in week three, but that doesn’t mean he was good. Ingram had a mere six carries for 21 yards on the ground, while David Johnson and Phillip Lindsay saw a combined nine carries for 16 yards. At this point, none of the Texans’ RBs should be considered for fantasy football due to the fact that there’s very little upside with any of these options.

Buffalo: Zack Moss is now starting to become a fantasy-relevant option again in this Buffalo offense, but we still shouldn’t be getting carried away with expectations for the second-year RB. Moss essentially split work again in this backfield with Singletary in week three and there was only so much work to go around because Buffalo was up big for the majority of the second half. While that same storyline could play out here in this matchup against Houston, there’s certainly still some risk to playing Moss. He’s a game-script-dependent option that will need to score in this game to crack the top-24. Devin Singletary looked like he was on his way to completely taking over this backfield after week one, but Moss has worked his way back in and actually out-touched Singletary 16 to 14 in week three against Washington. At this point, Singletary can’t be trusted anything more than a low-end FLEX option due to the unlikelihood that he finds the end zone any given week.

Wide Receivers

Houston: It doesn’t matter who is throwing him the ball…Brandin Cooks just simply produces. In week three, Cooks was able to see 10 targets and he reeled in nine of them for 112 yards. He’s giving one of the safest floors in all of fantasy football currently at the WR position and there’s very little reason to doubt that that will continue. In week four against the Bills though, Cooks should have a tougher time getting open and it’s unlikely that he crosses over the 100-yard benchmark. With that being said though, he’s going to continue to see a massive target share, so he still belongs in fantasy lineups. He can be viewed as a mid-range/low-end WR3.

Buffalo: Stefon Diggs was highly involved in the Bills offense yet again as he saw the second-most targets on the team in week three with 10. While the touchdowns went elsewhere in week three, this offense is potent enough that the touchdowns should go Diggs’ way sooner than later. Regardless, he’s providing fantasy managers with a safe floor week after week as he’s now averaging 6.3 receptions, 63.4 receiving yards, and .3 touchdowns per game. He’s one of the more consistent options at the WR position and he could absolutely explode in this plus matchup against Houston. He can be viewed as a low-end WR1 with upside this week. Emmanuel Sanders had been getting the job done for the Bills offense through the first two weeks and he had been filling his role well. While it hadn’t led to much fantasy production, he’d still been receiving a steady target share while the offense wasn’t performing at its best. Sanders exploded in week three though for five receptions, 94 yards, and two scores. While there are plenty of other mouths to feed in this offense, which makes predicting which option will have a good game a near-impossible task, Sanders has an excellent chance of exploding for a big performance again here in week four. Just due to the plethora of receiving options, we shouldn’t view him as anything more than a high-end FLEX play in week four. Cole Beasley gets essentially forgotten about for fantasy purposes, but he can still be an effective asset in this Bills offense. Through three weeks, Beasley is now averaging 7.6 receptions, 64.6 receiving yards, and zero touchdowns. He certainly doesn’t have as much upside as some of the other receiving options in this offense due to his lack of opportunity in the red zone, but he can soak up targets and help keep the offense moving. If Allen is going to throw the ball 40+ times every week, Beasley should easily provide a safe floor as a FLEX option for fantasy managers that gets a slight bump up in Full PPR formats. Gabriel Davis has enormous potential, but he’s simply not seeing enough opportunity in this offense to make much of an impact for fantasy football. He’s only played 21 and 23 snaps each of the past two weeks and has taken a clear back seat to Sanders in this offense. At this point, Davis is merely just a bench stash in deeper formats.

Tight Ends

Houston: None of the Houston Texans TEs should be considered for fantasy football this week.

Buffalo: This is two weeks in a row now where Dawson Knox is making an impact for fantasy football. He’s becoming more and more involved in this offense now and he’s seen his snaps increase each of the past two weeks from 48 in week one to 62 in week three. He’s at the point where he’s worth taking a flier on to see if this is trustworthy moving forward, but we shouldn’t be confidently plugging him into our starting lineups just yet. He can be viewed as a high-end/mid-range TE2 in week four.

FantasyProjection Buster: The entire Houston offense outside of Brandin Cooks.

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New York Giants vs New Orleans Saints

Date/Time: Sunday October 3, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Saints -8
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 43.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Saints 25.75, Giants 17.75

New York Giants

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New Orleans Saints

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Quarterback

New York: Daniel Jones was the hot streaming name in week three due to his rushing upside and the matchup, but he didn’t exactly come through for fantasy managers. While he didn’t hurt your lineups, he certainly didn’t help them as he finished as the QB20 on the week behind options like Jacoby Brissett, Sam Darnold, Kirk Cousins, etc. He now gets to take on the New Orleans Saints defense that’s the 3rd toughest matchup for opposing QBs this season and only allowing 12.8 fantasy points per game. With a couple of his receiving options appearing to be banged up, it’s probably best to look elsewhere this week for your 1QB leagues.

New Orleans: After witnessing Jameis Winston throw away the game – literally – in week two, Sean Payton came back with a refined game plan in week three which was focused on getting the ball out of Winston’s hands. Winston only had 21 total pass attempts and ended up with just 128 passing yards. After three games, Winston is on pace for just 2,193 passing yards and he’s living and dying on his touchdown rate at this point. That’s a very risky game for fantasy managers to play, even with him as your QB2 in Superflex formats. Winston’s on the edge of a low-end QB2/high-end QB3 that has an absolutely wide range of outcomes every single week.

Running Backs

New York: Saquon Barkley‘s fantasy managers had a major scare about halfway through last week’s game when Barkley was shaken up and was on the sidelines, but he came back in and found his way into the end zone for the first time since December 29th, 2019. Despite the injury scare, Barkley appeared to be back to 100% without any limitations and that was evidenced by his workload. Barkley saw 23 total opportunities in week three and he ended up with 94 total yards plus the score. We’ve been waiting for Saquon to get back up to speed and he appears to finally have gotten his legs underneath him. The Saints have been a stingy defense so far this year to opposing RBs as they’ve only allowed 10.4 fantasy points per game, but Saquon’s going to see too much work for that to matter. He’s back in your starting lineups as a low-end RB1 with upside.

New Orleans: Well, here’s something that I didn’t expect to see three weeks into the 2021 NFL season. Alvin Kamara is third in the entire league in rush attempts with 52. However, he is tied for 16th at the RB position for total receptions and actually has less than Derrick Henry. The Saints are leaning on Kamara after the week two debacle and they’re using him as a true workhorse option on the ground, which is certainly not what we’re used to seeing from the dynamic pass-catching option. It’s working for fantasy purposes though and Kamara had a great bounce-back performance in week three against the Patriots. Kamara should continue to see a healthy workload on the ground in week four and there’s no reason we shouldn’t view him as a mid-range RB1 yet again.

Wide Receivers

New York: Kenny Golladay certainly has not lived up to the hype that fantasy managers put on him to begin the off-season. After signing a massive deal with New York in free agency, people were discussing Golladay as a potential WR1 for fantasy purposes, but that certainly has not been the case through the first three games. Golladay is just the WR60 and he’s behind players like Kendrick Bourne, Van Jefferson, and even Darius Slayton. While Slayton and Sterling Shepard seem to be in line to miss this next game with injuries, which could open things up for Golladay from a target share perspective, he also has to worry about a CB matchup against Marshon Lattimore. Lattimore is currently only allowing .17 Fantasy Points Per Route Run and he’s received an elite PFF Grade of 88 so far this season. We need to be concerned about Golladay in this matchup and he should remain in the low-end WR3/high-end FLEX conversation. Collin Johnson came in last week and performed well with his increased opportunity. He’s worth picking up if you’re in a pinch at WR and playing as a low-end FLEX option, but otherwise, there are most likely better options you can roll with in your lineup this week.

New Orleans: Marquez Callaway finally made an impact for fantasy football last week, but it was most likely on everyone’s bench if they still roster him. Callaway was the recipient of a touchdown throw that never should have been made by Jameis Winston, but it certainly boosted his fantasy output. With that being said, he was otherwise a disappointment for fantasy yet again with just totaling four receptions for 41 yards. With the CB matchup that Callaway will have in front of him this week against Adoree’ Jackson and James Bradberry, it’s best to leave Callaway on your bench again in this one.

Tight Ends

New York: Evan Engram made his season debut last week and played 56% of the offensive snaps for the Giants, but failed to make much of an impact. With Slayton and Shepard potentially out for this game, Engram could see an uptick in targets, but it’s not worth rolling the dice with him. At this point, there are better options you can turn to at the position that have better matchups.

New Orleans: None of the Saints TEs should be considered for fantasy football this week.

FantasyProjection Buster: The entire Saints offense outside of Alvin Kamara.