We’ve all made the mistake of reaching on a player in our fantasy drafts. There are those guys we want to believe will finally show the world who they are, the ones we project are in a better situation and should improve, or the player who is due for a breakout. It’s easy to be blinded by the idea that “talent always wins out.” While that sounds nice, we also know this isn’t true.

Eliminating bias and evaluating a situation can save you from making these mistakes come August. Here are three players I believe won’t live up to expectations in 2022.

Rankings based on FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings

Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS) Overall ECR: 47 (WR20)

There was a lot of hope for former Ohio State WR Terry McLaurin when the Washington Commanders selected him in the third round of the 2019 NFL Draft. While underutilized in college, his talent led many to believe he would be successful at the NFL level.

To say Mclaurin hasn’t had solid, consistent QB play throughout his career is fair. During his first three seasons in the league, the Commanders have had nine different players start at QB, with Taylor Heinikie being the only one to start more than eight games in a season. In addition, Washington is a team that favors the run, keeping the ball on the ground on 44.6% of plays in 2021. The addition of veteran QB Carson Wentz makes it unlikely to change in 2022.

Not only does the addition of Wentz dampen McLaurin’s outlook, but the team also re-signed pass-catching RB J.D. McKissic and drafted dynamic Penn State WR Jahan Dotson in the first round of the most recent draft. These moves don’t instill much confidence in McLaurin heading into 2022.

His FantasyPros Draft ECR should give pause. He is projected to go ahead of WR Darnell Mooney, Courtland Sutton, Brandin Cooks, and Allen Robinson as the WR17. However, if he’s going to live up to his current ranking, we need to see more involvement in the red zone offense. In 2021, he saw just nine targets inside the 20 yard-line. Without touchdown upside, it’s not probable that McLaurin sees enough volume to prop him up higher than his best fantasy finish, overall PPR WR20 in 2020.

Mark Andrews (TE – BAL) Overall ECR: 17 (TE2)

Baltimore TE Mark Andrews broke out in a big way in 2021. This past season, his 284.6 PPR fantasy points are the most by a TE not named Travis Kelce since Jimmy Graham put up 303.5 in 2013. It was an impressive showing from a player who had been hanging around the mid-TE1 tier the last few seasons behind Kelce, George Kittle, and Darren Waller.

This past season saw Andrews set career single-season highs in targets (153), receptions (107) and yards (1361). QB Lamar Jackson also missed significant time due to injury, playing in only 12 total games. With Jackson missing six games, the Baltimore offense became considerably more pass-heavy, going from throwing on 44.69% of offensive snaps in 2020 to 56.37% in 2021. Also notable is that Andrews had his best stretch of games when Jackson was on the bench, averaging 21.07 PPR fantasy points in the last seven games. In the previous 11 games, Andrews averaged only 13.87 points.

The departure of WR Marquise Brown via trade to the Arizona Cardinals has many believing Andrews can easily replicate his 2021 campaign. Brown accounted for 145 targets in the Baltimore offense last season, and the team did not make a move to replace him. However, in 2020 with a healthy Lamar Jackson behind center and a healthy RB room that included J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, the Ravens threw the ball a minuscule 406 times, compared to 611 times this past season. Additionally, Jackson, Dobbins and Edwards are all back healthy for 2022, which indeed points to a return to hammering the ground game.

While Andrews should easily finish in the TE1 next season, it is unlikely he will replicate previous performance or volume, putting him outside the top five at the position.

Cam Akers (RB – LAR) ECR: 37 (RB17)

One of the more heartwarming stories to round out the 2021 NFL season was the return of Los Angeles Rams RB Cam Akers after tearing his Achilles tendon in July of the same year. The relatively quick return from such a devastating injury was almost superhuman. Given that he was slated to be the RB1 in Los Angeles before tearing up his ankle, it’s not surprising to see so many bullish on what he will do in 2022.

The defending Super Bowl champion Rams appear primed to make a run for a repeat this coming season. QB Matthew Stafford is entering his second season with the team, WR Cooper Kupp is in his prime and the addition of veteran WR Allen Robinson points to a high-octane offense in Los Angeles in 2022. While Akers will undoubtedly be a part of this explosive attack, exactly how much? We don’t know. Veteran RB Darrell Henderson is still with the team and has proven his favor with head coach Sean McVay, and the team selected RB Kyren Williams in the fourth round of this most recent draft. In the post-Gurley era, McVay has favored an RB by committee approach, not having had a 1,000 rusher since 2018.

Cam Akers will have fantasy value heading into the 2022 season. He is a talented back who will have an entire season to show what he can do at the NFL level. However, barring an injury to Henderson or Williams, Akers is unlikely to land near his current FantasyPros ECR of RB17. I would consider rostering him this upcoming season if his value slides back into the RB3 tier, but it won’t likely be a good return on investment at his current cost.

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Trade Analyzer – which allows you to instantly find out if a trade offer benefits you or your opponent – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

Nate Polvogt is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him @NatePolvogt.