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Consensus Fantasy Football Busts from 80+ Experts (2022)

Aug 26, 2022


 
Our last consensus article focused on sleepers that could elevate you to a title. Our 76 voters nominated Rhamondre Stevenson and Trevor Lawrence as the two mid-to-late-round players with the highest chance to provide huge returns on their average draft position (ADP). The experts have offered their opinions on who will make your season, but who will break it? This is arguably even more important than who the top sleepers are because one or two busts is all it takes to crush your playoff hopes right out of the gate, especially if those underperformers were taken high in the draft.

To help you identify which athletes carry too much risk relative to their ADP, we have polled 82 experts on who this year’s biggest busts are at every position in half-PPR formats heading into the new season. Check out who they chose below.

Want to see all the votes? Click here to view which experts participated and who they voted for.

Note: All ADP and ECR values are as of August 25

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Fantasy Football Redraft Draft Kit

Top Consensus Busts

PLAYER POS TEAM VOTES ECR ADP
Deebo Samuel WR SF 13 WR7 WR7
Mike Gesicki TE MIA 13 TE14 TE11
Darren Waller TE LV 13 TE5 TE5
David Montgomery RB CHI 11 RB20 RB18
DK Metcalf WR SEA 11 WR22 WR19
Dawson Knox TE BUF 11 TE10 TE9
Cam Akers RB LAR 10 RB19 RB17
Tyreek Hill WR MIA 10 WR9 WR8
Joe Burrow QB CIN 9 QB7 QB5
Aaron Rodgers QB GB 9 QB13 QB11
Antonio Gibson RB WAS 9 RB28 RB24

Click here to view which experts participated and who they voted for.

Running Backs

PLAYER TEAM VOTES ECR ADP
David Montgomery CHI 11 RB20 RB18
Cam Akers LAR 10 RB19 RB17
Antonio Gibson WAS 9 RB28 RB24
Najee Harris PIT 6 RB6 RB6
Derrick Henry TEN 6 RB5 RB4
Elijah Mitchell SF 6 RB22 RB22
Javonte Williams DEN 6 RB14 RB13
Josh Jacobs LV 5 RB24 RB21
D’Andre Swift DET 5 RB8 RB8
Ezekiel Elliott DAL 4 RB16 RB15

Other running backs who received votes were: Austin Ekeler (2), Nick Chubb (2), Joe Mixon (1), Travis Etienne (1), James Conner (1), Leonard Fournette (1), James Cook (1), Raheem Mostert (1), J.K. Dobbins (1), Christian McCaffrey (1)

Wide Receivers

PLAYER TEAM VOTES ECR ADP
Deebo Samuel SF 13 WR7 WR7
DK Metcalf SEA 11 WR22 WR19
Tyreek Hill MIA 10 WR9 WR8
Terry McLaurin WAS 5 WR19 WR17
AJ Brown PHI 5 WR10 WR10
Gabriel Davis BUF 4 WR27 WR27
Diontae Johnson PIT 4 WR17 WR16
Courtland Sutton DEN 3 WR16 WR20
Mike Williams LAC 3 WR15 WR18
Michael Thomas NO 3 WR26 WR28
CeeDee Lamb DAL 3 WR6 WR6
Marquise Brown ARI 3 WR23 WR23

Other wide receivers who received votes were: Jerry Jeudy (2), Kadarius Toney (2), Amari Cooper (2), Russell Gage (1), DeAndre Hopkins (1), Chase Claypool (1), Chris Godwin (1), Amon-Ra St. Brown (1), Tee Higgins (1), Jaylen Waddle (1), Rashod Bateman (1), Davante Adams (1) 

Quarterbacks

PLAYER TEAM VOTES ECR ADP
Joe Burrow CIN 9 QB7 QB5
Aaron Rodgers GB 9 QB13 QB11
Patrick Mahomes KC 8 QB3 QB2
Kyler Murray ARI 7 QB5 QB6
Trey Lance SF 7 QB11 QB13
Dak Prescott DAL 6 QB10 QB9
Tua Tagovailoa MIA 5 QB16 QB16
Jalen Hurts PHI 5 QB6 QB7
Justin Fields CHI 4 QB17 QB17
Tom Brady TB 4 QB8 QB10
Matthew Stafford DET 4 QB12 QB12

Other quarterbacks who received votes were: Lamar Jackson (3), Mac Jones (2), Josh Allen (2), Matt Ryan (2), Zach Wilson (1), Derek Carr (1), Deshaun Watson (1), Ryan Tannehill (1), Russell Wilson (1)

Tight Ends

PLAYER TEAM VOTES ECR ADP
Mike Gesicki MIA 13 TE14 TE11
Darren Waller LV 13 TE5 TE5
Dawson Knox BUF 11 TE10 TE9
T.J. Hockenson DET 7 TE8 TE7
George Kittle SF 6 TE4 TE4
Pat Freiermuth PIT 5 TE11 TE12
Dallas Goedert PHI 5 TE7 TE8
Dalton Schultz DAL 4 TE6 TE6
Kyle Pitts ATL 3 TE3 TE3
Zach Ertz ARI 3 TE9 TE10

Other tight ends who received votes were: Mark Andrews (2), Cole Kmet (2), Travis Kelce (2), Evan Engram (1), Albert Okwuegbunam (1), Logan Thomas (1), Robert Tonyan (1), Noah Fant (1), Gerald Everett (1)  

Beyond our fantasy football content, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you prepare for your draft this season. From our free mock Draft Simulator, which allows you to mock draft against realistic opponents, to our Draft Assistant, which optimizes your picks with expert advice, we’ve got you covered this fantasy football draft season.

Q. Who is the player you expect to be this year’s biggest fantasy bust and why?

Running Backs

Cam Akers (LAR) 
“Cam Akers will be the biggest fantasy football bust in 2022. During his breakout campaign in 2020, the 23-year-old finished with just three total touchdowns across 13 games while only producing two games with at least 80 rushing yards. The Rams head coach, Sean McVay, proved he is comfortable with Darrell Henderson Jr. in the backfield, with Henderson earning 33 percent of snaps in 2020 compared to Akers’ 26 percent opportunity. Akers is a solid talent with a great burst at times, but he’s in a pass-centric offense, draws limited targets, and will continue to compete for reps with Henderson in 2022.”
Matt MacKay (FantasyPros)

Cam Akers is a huge risk in 2022, as his ADP lingers in the 3rd- to 4th-round range. No runner has ever, I repeat ever, become a top 15 RB after an Achilles tear. Cam was my biggest RB avoid walking into 2021, as he had HUGE injury risks, so you can imagine that I have zero confidence in him go-forward. Achilles tears leave runners with no explosion for several years, and Cam is just over 12 months recovered. His style of play leads to injury, as he’s ultra-reckless with his body/neck, and rushing back onto the field last season only six months recovered from his Achilles tear proves how reckless he is with his body. History suggests that this is an improbable comeback, especially his first year back from his tear. His reckless attempt to play games late last season may have actually caused damage we cannot measure, meaning maybe he prevented full repair of the Achilles. Take a safer player in 2022.”
Smitty (TheFantasyFootballShow)

Cam Akers is terrifying. I love the player and wish him the best but everything this offseason points towards splitting time to keep him healthy. Even without the injury, we have a 10-game sample size where he only scored more than 10 fantasy points only three times. Although he has the talent, we still have yet to see him truly break out. Add in the injury and potential timeshare, and I struggle to take him above known players such as David Montgomery and James Conner.”
Ellis Johnson (True North Fantasy Football)

David Montgomery (CHI)
“David Montgomery, RB, CHI – In 2020 Monty took advantage of some of the historically worst run defenses in the back-third of the season to finish as the RB4. He beat up on a few bad defenses last year, just not to the same degree as he did in 2020. The new coaching staff has used the committee approach at RB in the past. Khalil Herbert shined in Montgomery’s absence last season, finishing as an RB1 twice in the four games that Monty missed. Free agent signing Darrynton Evans and sixth-round draft pick Trestan Ebner both have 4.4 forty speed and pass-catching ability, similar to former Bear, Tariq Cohen, but bigger. ”
Kev Wheeler (The 33rd Team)

David Montgomery is a solid running back in a bad offense and defenses will focus on stopping him. YPC isn’t everything but 3.7 as a rookie and 3.8 in year three are worrisome. I’m astonished to see him drafted at #35 overall just ahead of Travis Etienne and Breece Hall and way in front of J.K. Dobbins. He’s the epitome of the dead zone running back.”
Dave McKay (The Fantasy Sports Brain)

James Cook (BUF) 
“Yes, Cook has the draft capital to his name to certainly be a factor for fantasy football. It’s not often that you see an RB get 2nd-round draft capital and not make a fantasy impact, so the chances that Cook is fantasy relevant in 2022 are high. With that being said, there were other landing spots that the talented receiving weapon could have ended up in that might have led to top-24 fantasy upside. Yes, Buffalo is a dynamic offense and is going to put up points each and every week. However, it’s important to remember that Devin Singletary isn’t going anywhere in this backfield. Cook profiles completely as a 3rd-down RB at his size – combined with his skill set – and he should step into that role alongside Singletary as the 1st and 2nd-down back. Additionally, Cook is paired with a QB that had the 8th-highest ADOT last season for QBs with over 100 pass attempts. Josh Allen is not known to check the ball down with regularity as opposed to someone like Jared Goff where the target volume could have been astronomical and that’s going to hurt Cook’s fantasy potential. He will be a decent RB3 in Full PPR formats this year. Unless we see him become the goal-line back though – which would be incredibly odd at just 190 pounds – it’s unlikely that Cook is going to see the necessary volume with Allen as his QB to be a weekly contributor for fantasy lineups in 2022. There’s a lot of buzz surrounding Cook right now within the fantasy community, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see his ADP rise as we get closer to Week 1 of the season. Buyer beware with Cook this year.”
Kyle Yates (The Fantasy Playbook)

Nick Chubb (CLE) 
“Chubb has been a steady and consistent producer for fantasy managers over the last 3 seasons finishing inside the Top 10 at the position in fantasy PPG. His ability to evade tackles (92 in 2021) allows him to pile up the yardage and be among the league leaders in rushing yards each season. But efficiency was something of an issue for Chubb in 2021 (0.85 fantasy points per opportunity, RB27), and his lack of usage in the passing game (20 receptions, RB55) will always limit his upside. Add in the uncertainty surrounding the Browns QB position in 2022 with the Deshaun Watson situation, and this could spell doom for Chubb’s potential. Coming off the board as RB10 and 16th overall may be a bit of a reach at the moment as I expect to see Chubb’s PPG in 2022 to land him outside the RB1 range. ”
Brandon Murchison (RotoBaller)

Derrick Henry (TEN) 
“In the last decade, only 11 running backs at or above age 28 have put up a season of 250+ PPR fantasy points per Stathead. If Derrick Henry were to do so in 2022, he would be the first running back to reach that mark since 2017, when both Mark Ingram II and LeSean McCoy accomplished said feat. For context, 250 PPR points would have been enough to finish as RB8 overall last season Betting against an otherworldly athlete like Henry feels wrong, but given the history of players his age and the nature of his foot injury that sidelined him for seven games last season, it’s hard to justify him as a top five (let alone top three) pick in drafts in 2022. ”
Herms (The Lateral)

Javonte Williams (DEN) 
“Javonte Williams is the biggest potential bust for any player this year, in terms of where he is being drafted and where he is likely to finish. He is coming off the board in the second round, at RB12. However, someone who was ranked 31st in opportunity share and snap share amongst RBs and 41st in Fantasy points per opportunity. In fact, Williams failed to finish in the top 12 at the position in any significant statistical category. So why are we drafting him at his ceiling? He is a low-end RB2 play with minimal upside unless Melvin Gordon moves out of the way.”
Adam Murfet (5 Yard Rush)

Antonio Gibson (WAS) 
“A fumble deep in Washington’s territory by Antonio Gibson in the Commandeers’ first preseason game led to his benching and subsequent working with second, third, and even the special teams the following days in camp. While this exercise might be a method to teach Gibson a lesson about ball security, it also does have to make fantasy managers nervous about his status in the Commanders backfield. There were red flags already with Gibson coming into the season, which includes his fumbling issues. His six fumbles tie Ezekiel Elliot for the most fumbles in the league since 2020. In addition, the presence of Jd Mckissic, who Washington went out of their way to resign, limits Gibson’s pass game usage. They also drafted Alabama’s Brian Robinson in the third round, who will restrict his short-yardage and goalline work. Finally, add that Gibson always seems slowed down by injuries and will not be a workhorse back in an offense led by new quarterback Carson Wentz. Combining these factors provides immense potential for the biggest fantasy bust this season. ”
Dennis Sosic (Fantasy Six Pack)

D’Andre Swift (DET) 
“D’Andre Swift oozes potential, but if you want to secure the third-year Lions running back on your fantasy team this season, it’s going to cost you an early-second-round if not late-first-round draft pick. That’s way too rich for my liking and sets Swift up to be a huge bust in 2022. He’s never topped 200 carries in a pro or college season, has shown a propensity for injury in his first two years in the NFL, and could see a reduction in targets with a rising WR1 in Amon-Ra St. Brown, a healthy TJ Hockenson and Jamaal Williams, and the addition of DJ Chark and (eventually) Jameson Williams to the receiving corp. ”
Jason Willan (Gridiron Experts)

Elijah Mitchell (SF) 
“Elijah Mitchell – Mitchell scored at a decent clip with five rushing touchdowns in 11 games as a rookie. But he saw just six carries from within 5 yards of the end zone and will likely see even more competition for goal-line work with Trey Sermon impressing and the mobile Trey Lance starting at quarterback. Mitchell is an excellent player with the speed to score from long distance. But he may miss out on the most valuable touches for backs in fantasy.”
Scott Spratt (FTN)

Joe Mixon (CIN) 
“Joe Mixon – In 2021 Mixon scored just under 60% of his total fantasy points in just 7 games. He was very inconsistent and left far too many single-digit performances on the field. Relative to his ADP, he’s too risky for my liking.”
Blake Fincher (Fantasy Football Cafe)

Fantasy Football Redraft Draft Kit

Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill (MIA) 
“The Chiefs were intentional about getting the ball in Hill’s hands in 2021 — his 27.1 percent target per route run rate was by far the highest mark of his career and trailed only Davante Adams (30.7 percent), Cooper Kupp (30.6 percent), and Diontae Johnson (27.5 percent) among players with at least 350 routes run, and yet he finished as just the WR6 in Fantasy. He’s being drafted as the WR8 as a Dolphin. Can we really expect Miami to get him more involved in 2022? Surely we aren’t expecting an increase in efficiency as Hill transitions from familiarity with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid to a new offense under a first-time head coach and unproven quarterback, right? His target per route run rate will have to spike to justify Hill’s current ADP, then, and this isn’t even considering the likelihood that the Mike McDaniel-led Dolphins will likely produce far fewer pass attempts than Hill’s Chiefs did. From a projection standpoint, there’s no way to make sense of Hill’s ADP.”
Jacob Gibbs (SportsLine)

Tyreek Hill’s trade to the Dolphins isn’t baked into his cost enough for me, so I can’t get behind drafting him as a top-10 WR this year. He’s going from one of the pass-happiest teams in the league to likely one of the most run-heavy. As the offensive coordinator in San Francisco last year, new Miami head coach Mike McDaniel employed a game plan which saw the fourth fewest pass attempts in 2021. Tyreek is coming off a season that saw career highs in targets and receptions, and a significant drop-off there and at the quarterback throwing him the ball has me fading him in the second round of drafts this season.”
Bart Wheeler (Hail to Fantasy Football)

“I think Tyreek Hill could see a fall from grace in 2022. Going from Patrick Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa is a clear step backward in terms of quality of target, and Hill saw his average depth of target decrease from 12.9 to 10.4 in 2021. Now entering his age-28 season in a brand-new system, one has to wonder if Hill can simply pick up where he left off in Kansas City in a new scheme under new coaching. If Jaylen Waddle takes a leap in his sophomore season over and beyond his historic 2021 rookie campaign, Hill could very quickly become the second option on his team.”
Nathan Groot Nibbelink (JWB Fantasy Football)

“Tyreek Hill: The Chiefs fan inside of me wants to believe that Tyreek Hill is QB proof, but we saw signs of this being a false narrative last year. Tyreek Hill is a game-changing talent, but his lack of consistency last year worries me. Last year, 43% of Hill’s fantasy output came in only 4 games. The downgrade from Mahomes to Tua, as well as Waddle’s familiarity with Tua, has me all out on Cheetah”
Nate Marcum (Fantasy In Frames)

Deebo Samuel (SF)
“Deebo Samuel – Deebo Samuel built his 2021 WR2 finish on two things: a ridiculously high yards per reception and an even more obscene rushing touchdown percentage. 18.2 yards per reception is simply unsustainable (only Ja’Marr Chase was within THREE yards of that with 110 targets or more). Then you don’t have to be a mathematician to know that eight touchdowns on only 59 carries is due to regress downward. Of course, the biggest factor is volume now that Trey Lance has fully taken over. Lance will definitely cut down Samuel’s rushing attempts with his own legs, and the 49ers will throw less overall.”
Michael Tomlin (Fantasy Six Pack)

Deebo Samuel posted a bunch of efficiency metrics last year that will be nearly impossible to match in 2022: 18.2 yards per catch, 11.6 yards per target, and a 13.6% rushing TD rate. His volume might take a hit, too. The 49ers figure to throw it even less under QB Trey Lance. And WR Brandon Aiyuk seems primed to take on a bigger role. Reduced efficiency and reduced volume is a bad combination.”
Jared Smola (Draft Sharks)

DK Metcalf (SEA) 
“The difference between having Geno Smith/Drew Lock at quarterback versus Russell Wilson cannot be overstated enough. Both guys have sub-80.0 career passer ratings. while Wilson’s career passer rating (101.8) ranks second all-time among QBs with 100 starts. DK Metcalf has thrived off efficient QB play touchdown production – 32 touchdowns over his first three seasons -, but scoring might be a rare commodity for this 2022 Seahawks offense. There’s also no guarantee that Metcalf holds a stranglehold as the team’s target share leader after he and Tyler Lockett have posted nearly identical target shares over the last two seasons.”
Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)

Rashod Bateman (BAL) 
“The Ravens are going to be a run-first team, and Mark Andrews is the #1 receiver, so I won’t be relying on Rashod Bateman’s PPR targets to win my leagues. Bateman had the lowest Average depth of target (or ADOT) in the offense in 2021. Hollywood Brown’s ADOT was 11.25 yards, Mark Andrews was 10.29 yards, and Rashod Bateman was 8.9 yards. That means his route tree was that of a possession receiver (not deep threat), so I expect a lower ceiling than most for Bateman this year. ”
Bradlee Kilgore (Fantrax)

CeeDee Lamb (DAL) 
“CeeDee Lamb is now being drafted early to middle 2nd round ahead of top tier running backs and much safer WRs. The history of Big12 wide receivers failing to reach their potential is very obvious with names like Corey Coleman, Josh Doctson, Denzel Mims, and John Ross. Lamb was the WR14 overall and the WR15 in PPG with players such as Mike Evans, Keenan Allen, Tee Higgins, and Tyreek Hill scoring ahead of him last year, but now they are being drafted later.”
Justin Weigal (FantasySharks)

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen (BUF) 
“Josh Allen – Whilst Josh Allen is an elite quarterback and especially so in fantasy football, the cost of drafting him is simply too high in single quarterback leagues. It’s very rare for the player drafted as QB1 to pay off that price and even when they do so it comes at a cost of a skill player in that round, for instance, Cooper Kupp or Mark Andrews in 2021. The Bills also strike me as a team who may like to run the ball through their running backs more often going forward, and Allen collected 26.85% of his points with his legs in 2021, a reduction in rushing output would be awful for his chances of being the QB1 again.”
Tom Strachan (NFL Best Ball)

Trey Lance (SF) 
“Trey Lance is currently a QB1 according to ECR (QB11), as many experts and fantasy enthusiasts are understandably tantalized by his rushing ability and strong arm. However, Lance started only 19 games since high school, with all but two (89 percent) coming against inferior FCS foes that his North Dakota State Bison methodically trampled. Lance should experience significant growing pains during his first season as an NFL starter, so despite a few exciting spike weeks, I expect inconsistency and too many low ceiling games to justify a Top 12 ranking.”
Drew DeLuca (QB List)

Patrick Mahomes (KC) 
“He must be QB2 because he’s most likely to remain top 5 out of all the other top options, but he’s shown us it takes FIFTY passing TDs to hit that top 2 mark. The Chiefs just lost the most offensive DYAR of any team in the 21st century, according to Football Outsiders. 10 of 11 teams with comparable DYAR lost over an offseason saw dips in offensive DVOA the following year. I’ll pass.”
Seth Miller (Crossroads Fantasy Football)

Aaron Rodgers (GB) 
“Aaron Rodgers is the biggest fantasy bust for this upcoming season. Rodgers is currently being drafted as the 10th quarterback off the board ahead of guys such as Russel Wilson, Matthew Stafford, and Trey Lance. Rodgers’s situation this year is one I want to avoid after the loss of Devante Adams. He has no established WR1 and will be relying on Lazard to take a step forward as well as two rookies. The Packers should lean more on their running game and defense this season which drops the scoring potential for Rodgers which lowers his weekly upside. Due to this lack of upside and weapons, I would not draft Rodgers as a QB1 this season.”
Dylan Licciardo (FF Gamers)

Tight Ends

Darren Waller (LV) 
“I hate to say it, but I think Darren Waller (currently ranked as TE5) will disappoint fantasy managers this season. Many see the name Waller and think 90+ catches and 1,000+ yards from their TE. Between the emergence of Hunter Renfrow as a legit slot threat (103 rec. in 2021) and the addition of red-zone monster Davante Adams (AVG:11.5 TDs per season since 2016) there’s more competition for targets in Vegas than ever before. Of course, Waller is one of the best TE talents in the league, but there is a potential massive drop-off in production on the horizon with volume regression looming.”
Tim Brosnan (Tim’s Fantasy Tips)

Kyle Pitts (ATL) 
“I like Kyle Pitts, and I very much want him to be good. But I just don’t see the tea leaves lining up for him to be the TE3 that he’s being drafted as in the fourth or fifth round of most drafts. Pitts had a solid rookie season and finished as TE6, but he also suffered a massive downgrade at quarterback over the offseason. He doesn’t have much competition at tight end, so he still has a very good chance to finish as a top-5 TE. But he’s being drafted as an *elite* tight end, and that’s a steep price of draft capital that I’m just not willing to pay.”
Nick Raducanu (Dr. Roto)

T.J. Hockenson (DET) 
“Last year T.J. Hockenson was a popular breakout candidate given a lack of proven weapons in Detroit. Unfortunately, he ended the year as the TE15 in PPR scoring, and the Lions added several receivers in the offseason. More importantly, Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift are coming off productive years and expect to have massive roles this year. Hockenson isn’t a bad low-end TE1 option, but he shouldn’t have a higher ADP than Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz.”
Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)

Mike Gesicki (MIA) 
“Mike Gesicki is ranked as a borderline TE1 in ECR, but I believe his upside is quite limited when comparing his skill set to his role in Mike McDaniel’s offense. Adding Tyreek Hill and pass-catching backs like Chase Edmonds will also eat into his target share.”
Jaime Eisner (The Draft Network)


CTAs

Thank you to all the experts for naming their consensus busts. You can view each expert’s picks above and be sure to give them a follow on Twitter for more great advice. Also, please check out our latest podcast episode below.


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