Miami Dolphins vs. Detroit Lions

• MIA -3, O/U 50
• Dolphins vs. Lions Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Each of these teams isn’t blazing a play volume trail in neutral script (MIA 18th, DET 25th)
• The Dolphins are ninth in neutral passing rate, while the Lions prefer to focus on the run (eighth-highest neutral rushing rate).

Quarterbacks

Tua Tagovailoa: Tagovailoa is a top-shelf QB1 this week. He’s played well when on the field, ranking eighth in PFF passing grade and second in yards per attempt as the QB10 in fantasy points per game. The Lions have been ripped in half by quarterbacks all season. They are third in success rate per dropback, fourth in fantasy points per game, and 28th in DVOA against deep passing. Tagovailoa is 11th in deep passing rate, second in deep adjusted completion rate, and seventh in deep passing yards (minimum ten deep passing attempts). The only thing that could slow him is the Lions’ blitz. Detroit is sixth in blitz rate (16th in pressure rate). Tagovailoa is 19th in PFF passing grade against the blitz and 21st in blitz-adjusted completion rate (ninth in yards per attempt against the blitz).

Jared Goff: This is a nice bounce-back matchup for Goff, who hasn’t finished as a QB1 since Week 4. The Dolphins have surrendered the fifth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Miami is fourth in success rate per dropback, 25th in passing yards per game, and 27th in EPA per dropback. Where the Dolphins struggle is right in Goff’s wheelhouse as they are 30th in DVOA against short passing. This is a result of their inability to tackle, as they are sixth in YAC and eighth in missed tackles. Goff is a borderline QB1.

Running Backs

Raheem Mostert is THE RB to trade for

His upcoming schedule is SO SO GOOD
(rank in Rush Defense DVOA)

DET – 29th
CHI – 26th
CLE – 28th
HOU – 32nd
SF -yikes
LAC – 24th
BUF – yikes
GB – 31st

This is the type of stretch of games that can change your season & put you over the top pic.twitter.com/heiQN824Cm

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) October 24, 2022

Raheem Mostert: Since Week 4, this has been Mostert’s backfield. He’s averaged 17.8 touches and 90 total yards playing at least 62% of the snaps weekly. Over the last four weeks, he’s the RB19 in fantasy points per game. Mostert is 17th in opportunity share and 18th in weighted opportunities. He might not be the same player he was during his prime, but he’s still been quite elusive. He’s 23rd in PFF’s elusive rating, ninth in breakaway runs, and 27th in yards after contact per attempt. The Lions have been a pitiful defense all around. They are 31st in rushing yards per game, 30th in EPA per rush, and 31st in explosive run rate allowed. Monster is a top-15 running back.

Week 1

D'Andre Swift is an elite GPP play this week.

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) October 28, 2022

D’Andre Swift: Swift isn’t listed with an injury designation after practicing in full all week. The last time we saw him close to full health was Week 1, where he played 65% of the snaps with 18 touches and 175 total yards as the RB3 for the week. Swift is first in yards after contact per attempt, fourth in breakaway run rate, and 16th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 15 carries). The Dolphins are a tough draw for Swift, ranking eighth in rushing yards per game, fifth in EPA per rush, and tenth in explosive run rate. The good thing for Swift is that his ceiling and best asset isn’t his rushing ability but his pass-game role. This is where Swift can eat the Dolphins alive. Miami is 28th in DVOA against running backs in the passing game, allowing the ninth-most receptions, fourth-most receiving yards, and third-highest yards per reception. Swift is a strong RB1.

Jamaal Williams: In Week 1, Williams played 32% of the snaps with 12 touches, 30 total yards, and two touchdowns. His red zone role, which dwarfed Swift’s, is notable, but Williams will take a backseat this week. With the rushing matchup looking brutal, Williams isn’t efficient enough to overcome it. He’s 48th in juke rate, 56th in yards created per touch and 40th in evaded tackles. He’s a touchdown-dependent RB3 who has seen the seventh-most red zone touches.

Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill: Hill has been incredible this year. He’s a weekly must-start as the WR4 in fantasy. He’s second in Target share, seventh in air yard share, and leads the NFL in receiving yards. He’s first in PFF receiving grade and yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Hill is second in deep targets and first in deep receiving yards. If Tagovailoa cuts the Lions’ secondary to shreds with the deep ball, Hill will have a monster day. Hill will run about 58% of his routes against Jeffery Okudah (71% catch rate, 97.6 passer rating) and Amani Oruwariye (73.3% catch rate, 130.1 passer rating). Hill is a top-five receiver.

Jaylen Waddle: Waddle hasn’t been a slouch either as he tries to keep pace with his teammate as the WR9 in fantasy. Waddle has a 22% Target share with a 27% air yard share. The specialty that has carried him to 621 receiving yards (fourth-most) is YAC. Waddle is third in YAC and fourth in YAC per reception. He’s 13th in PFF receiving grade and fourth in yards per route run. While Waddle can still walk away with a good fantasy week, this game sets up as a Hill game. Detroit has allowed the sixth-lowest YAC this season and is 20th in missed tackles. Waddle is a borderline WR1/high-end WR2.

Amon-Ra St. Brown: St. Brown should be good to go this week. Head coach Dan Campbell stated St. Brown didn’t have a concussion but was ruled out due to ataxia. In Weeks 1-3 before the injury, St. Brown was 16th in PFF receiving grade, tenth in yards per route run, and 13th in YAC per reception (minimum ten targets). St. Brown will remind people this week that he’s a WR1. In the first three games of the season, St. Brown commanded a 30.8% Target share (sixth-best), seeing 11 targets per game (seventh-best). St. Brown will run about 66% of his routes from the slot against Justin Bethel (career: 58.1% catch rate, 94.8 passer rating).

Josh Reynolds: Reynolds is the WR35 in fantasy points per game this season. In Weeks 2-5 he finished as a top 36 wide receiver in each game (WR34, WR26, WR9, WR19). He has drawn a 17.6% Target share as the team’s field stretcher. He has a 13.0 aDOT (20th) while leading the team with eight deep targets. Miami is 12th in DVOA against deep passing so this game doesn’t set up well for Reynolds. He’ll run about 69% of his routes on the outside against Xavien Howard (70.6% catch rate, 151.2 passer rating) and Noah Igbinoghene (53.8% catch rate, 66.8 passer rating). Reynolds is a WR4/5.

Kalif Raymond: Raymond is an upside flex play this week. His role in this offense matches well against the Dolphins’ weaknesses. Last week he had an 87.5% route run rate with a 24% Target share and 8.0 aDOT. He was second on the team in YAC. Last year among wide outs with 50 or more targets, Raymond was 14th in YAC per reception. He’ll run about 54% of his routes on the outside against Howard and Igbinoghene.

Tight Ends

Mike Gesicki: Since being reintegrated into this offense in Week 5, Gesicki is the TE6 with a 15% Target share and a 66.2% route run rate. Over that small three-game span, he’s 13th in PFF receiving grade and 13th in yards per route run with five red zone targets. Gesicki has run about 60% of his routes from the slot, so he’ll see plenty of A.J. Parker (100% catch rate, 118.8 passer rating). Detroit is also 31st in DVOA against tight ends if we’re viewing Gesicki from the traditional tight-end lens. They have allowed the seventh-highest catch rate and yards per reception. Gesicki is a top-12 tight end.

T.J. Hockenson: Hockenson is the TE3 in fantasy scoring, but his Week 4 legend performance against Seattle is masking his shortcomings. Outside of that game, he has only one top-12 finish this season. If we take Week 4 out of the equation, Hockenson is 25th in PFF receiving grade, 34th in yards per route run, and has a 16% Target share (four red zone targets). No, I’m not a proponent of “well, if we exclude all of the big plays then,” but this game against Seattle looks like a massive outlier stacked against the rest of his 2022 resume. With all of that being said, Miami is a good matchup for Hockenson. The Dolphins are 23rd in DVOA against tight ends giving up the eighth-most receiving yards and highest catch rate, but they have also yielded the third-lowest yards per reception. Hockenson is a low-end TE1.

BAL vs. TB | DEN vs. JAC | CAR vs. ATL | CHI vs. DAL | MIA vs. DET | ARI vs. MIN | LV vs. NO | NE vs. NYJ | PIT vs. PHI | TEN vs. HOU | WAS vs. IND | SF vs. LAR | NYG vs. SEA | GB vs. BUF | CIN vs. CLE

Arizona Cardinals vs. Minnesota Vikings

• MIN -3.5, O/U 49
• Cardinals vs. Vikings Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• This game offers the highest upside for play volume on the slate. The Cardinals are fifth in neutral pace, followed by the Vikings at eighth.
• The Vikings remain pass heavy (seventh in neutral passing rate), while the Cardinals have been balanced (19th in neutral passing rate).

Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray: Last week against the Saints, Murray finished as the QB10 despite pedestrian numbers, but there are positive takeaways. Murray finished with his highest PFF passing grade (73.1) since Week 2. This was the first game that he had eclipsed 7.0 yards per attempt all season. The Vikings offer a wonderful spot for Murray to build on Week 7 and step into the limelight. Minnesota is 12th in success rate per dropback. The Vikings have been gashed through the air all year. They are 32nd in explosive pass rate, 28th in passing yards per game, and 32nd in DVOA against short passing. Murray can pepper the short areas of the field against a defense that has given up the 12th-most YAC.

Kirk Cousins: Since Week 4, the Cardinals’ pass defense has tightened up, ranking 11th in DVOA. Over their last four games, they are eighth in EPA per dropback and 13th in explosive pass rate allowed. Cousins is the QB13 in fantasy points per game. He’s 11th in PFF passing grade, eighth in adjusted completion rate, and ninth in true completion rate, but all of that unravels when he’s pressured. Cousins is 22nd in pressured completion rate and 29th in pressured accuracy rating. Arizona might only rank 23rd in pressure rate, but they are second in blitz rate. All I can say is I hope Cousins packed his brown pants because the blitz is coming. Cousins against the blitz is like the morning after a late-night Taco Bell run. It isn’t pretty. Cousins is 33rd in PFF passing grade, 36th in yards per attempt, and 32nd in adjusted completion rate against the blitz. Cousins is a QB2.

Running Backs

Week 7

James Conner: Conner has been ruled out.

Darrel Williams: Williams has been named a game-time decision. With Benjamin playing well last week, I lean that he sits. Even if Williams is active, he shouldn’t be in your lineup.

Eno Benjamin: After beginning the season as a run defense to target, the Vikings have tightened up. Overall, Minnesota is 14th in rushing yards per game, 12th in EPA per rush, and 18th in explosive run rate allowed. Since Week 3, they have been top-eight in each of these categories. Minnesota is 12th in second-level yards and third in open-field yards allowed. The Vikings are a pass funnel. In Week 7, Benjamin played 73% of the snaps with 16 touches and 113 total yards while splitting the red zone work with Ingram. Benjamin has been explosive with his touches this season, ranking 18th in yards created per touch, 17th in juke rate, 23rd in yards per route run, and 11th in breakaway run rate. Benjamin is a low-end RB2.

Keaontay Ingram: Ingram played 30% of the snaps in Week 7 with 11 touches and 37 total yards (one touchdown). With his heavy red zone usage, Ingram is an RB4 who could be an RB3 if he falls into the end zone.

Dalvin Cook: Cook is the RB17 in fantasy averaging 17.7 touches and 88.3 total yards. Cook has finally flashed tackle-breaking ability in a tough matchup. In Week 6, he recorded 5.54 yards after contact against Miami (his highest single-game mark of the season). Cook has seen his yards after contact per attempt and PFF elusive rating increase in each of his last three games. Overall, Cook is 21st in yards after contact per attempt and 24th in PFF elusive rating (minimum 20 carries). Cook is tenth in opportunity share and 19th in weighted opportunities. He faces a Cardinals run defense that’s exploitable. They have surrendered the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game because they have faced the fourth-fewest rushing attempts. Arizona is also 26th in explosive run rate, 26th in second-level yards, and 19th in open-field yards. Cook is a locked-in RB1.

Alexander Mattison: Before playing 13% of the snaps in Week 6 while dealing with a shoulder injury, Mattison averaged 40% of the snaps with eight touches and 34 total yards in Weeks 3-5. With four red zone touches over those three games, Mattison can be utilized as a desperation flex if injuries and the bye week strap you. Mattison is tenth in juke rate and 27th in yards created per touch.

Wide Receivers

DeAndre Hopkins: In his first game back Hopkins saw the best usage of his tenure in Arizona. He went nuclear absorbing a 46.7% Target share and 60.6% air yard share which is great, but my biggest takeaway was his 42.4% slot rate. This is by far the highest slot rate he’s seen during his time with Kliff Kingsbury. Hopkins responded with 3.55 yards per route run. We’ll see how much slot time he gets this week with Rondale Moore likely to move back inside if Robbie Anderson is up to speed, but I have to tip my cap to Kingsbury for a moment. When on the outside Hopkins will matchup with Patrick Peterson (50% catch rate, 55.7 passer rating) and Cameron Dantzler (75% catch rate, 112.6 paser rating). Kingsbury would be wise to move Hopkins inside again some this week to take advantage of Chandon Sullivan (82.8% catch rate, 128.0 passer rating). Hopkins is a WR1.

Rondale Moore in Week 4: 16.1% Target share; 39% of snaps from the slot; 3.7 PPR points

Week 5: 21.1% TS; 84% slot snaps; 13.1 points

Week 6: 27.8% TS; 71% slot snaps; 10.9 points

Week 7: 6.9% TS; 14% slot snaps; 4.1 points

Almost like he's not a perimeter WR.

— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) October 21, 2022

Rondale Moore: Moore’s usage has been all over the map this season. He has two games on his resume with at least 82% of the snaps in the slot, with the other two contests seeing him outside on at least 63% of snaps. Last week, A.J. Green was sent to the bench, and Anderson, only a part-time player, while Moore was outside, which was terrible for him. I expect he will move back into his customary slot role this week. In his two games running from the slot, he’s seen a 24.3% Target share with an 87.6% route run rate (1.5 yards per route run). Moore should be integral to Arizona attacking the Vikings’ weakness against YAC and short passing. Moore is sixth in YAC per reception and 29th in overall YAC (minimum 15 targets). Moore is a WR3 with WR2 upside this week.

Robbie Anderson: Anderson only ran seven routes in his first game with Arizona while playing 62% from the slot. His only look came on a deep target. Anderson should move into the primary outside receiver role opposite Hopkins this week. Anderson is just a stash now with his role and Target share in question as he is integrated into this offense. His 13.9% Target share and 1.11 yards per route run don’t inspire much hope, but he will likely have spike weeks as a field-stretching threat. His deep role in this offense shouldn’t be at the top of Kingsbury’s list, with Minnesota ranking tenth in DVOA against deep passing.

Justin Jefferson: Jefferson remains a matchup-proof fantasy monster. He’s the WR3 in fantasy after a slow start. He’s seventh in Target share, 17th in target per route run rate, 12th in PFF receiving grade, and third in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Since Week 4, the Cardinals have utilized zone on 60% of their coverage snaps. This will be their undoing if Cousins can manage to deliver accurate balls to Jefferson. Jefferson has seen 58.3% of his target volume against zone, ranking first in PFF receiving grade and yards per route run against the coverage type (minimum ten targets). Jefferson is an elite WR1.

Adam Thielen: Thielen looks like a receiver on his last legs. He’s the WR33 in fantasy, drawing a 20.5% Target share. His red zone role has helped keep him afloat, as he’s seventh in red zone targets among wide receivers. Thielen has three games inside the top 24 wideouts, but he’s finished outside the top 50 fantasy wide receivers in the other three contests. Thielen is 53rd in PFF receiving grade and 83rd in yards per route run (minimum ten targets). He’s a WR3/4 that has to score to pay off starting him weekly. He’ll run about 63% of his routes against Byron Murphy (63.8% catch rate, 110.4 passer rating) and Marco Wilson (59.5% catch rate, 82.0 passer rating).

K.J. Osborn: Osborn isn’t fantasy-viable at this point. He’s finished outside the top 50 fantasy wide receivers in five of six games. He’s getting plenty of cardio with his 79% route participation, but he’s only managed a 12.4% Target share and three red zone targets (none since Week 3).

Tight Ends

Zach Ertz: Since 2021 in a small five-game sample with Hopkins on the field, Ertz has seen his targets drop from 10.0 per game to 4.4 and his receiving yards per game dip from 59.5 to 36.2. Again this is a tiny sample to draw from, but it’s worth mentioning. Despite concerns with Hopkins back, Ertz remains a TE1. He’s the TE5 this season, commanding a 20.2% Target share with the third-most red zone targets. He’s 14th in PFF receiving grade and 22nd in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). The Vikings are a cake matchup for Ertz this week, ranking 32nd in DVOA with the fifth-highest catch rate, seventh-highest yards per reception, and eighth-most receiving yards per game allowed.

Week 8: Irv. Smith. #LetIrvSwerve pic.twitter.com/ldKWthitNQ

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) October 28, 2022

Irv Smith Jr.: Smith Jr. is the matchup-based streaming option of the week. Smith’s numbers aren’t pretty, but the matchup is wondrous. Over his last three games, Smith has a 12.5% Target share with a 55.8% route run rate. These aren’t exactly numbers that we chase in fantasy. Add on to that his 29th-ranked PFF receiving grade and 30th standing in yards per route run, and you’ll be scratching your head as to why I’m so enamored with Smith outside of being a long-standing truther. The matchup. The matchup. The matchup. Arizona is 28th in DVOA against the tight end position giving up the fourth-highest catch rate, the most receiving yards per game, the most receptions per game, and the second-most fantasy points per game. Smith is tenth in red zone targets. He’s a TE1 this week.

BAL vs. TB | DEN vs. JAC | CAR vs. ATL | CHI vs. DAL | MIA vs. DET | ARI vs. MIN | LV vs. NO | NE vs. NYJ | PIT vs. PHI | TEN vs. HOU | WAS vs. IND | SF vs. LAR | NYG vs. SEA | GB vs. BUF | CIN vs. CLE

Las Vegas Raiders vs. New Orleans Saints

• LVR -2, O/U 48
• Raiders vs. Saints Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Surprisingly enough, the Saints actually lead the way in neutral pace here (13th), while the Raiders have slowed massively. In Weeks 1-3, the Raiders were ninth in neutral script pace. Since then, they have been ranked 22nd.
• Each offense is playing to its strengths. The Raiders are eighth in neutral passing rate, while the Saints and their laundry list of wide receiver injuries are ninth in neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Derek Carr: Carr is a low-end QB1/high-end QB2. He’s managed three top-12 performances this season (QB6, QB11, QB11), with his other three games finishing as the QB16 or lower. The Saints’ pass defense is battered and bruised. Since Week 4, they are 22nd in pass defense, DVOA ranking 22nd in passing yards per game, 31st in EPA per drop back, and 26th in explosive pass rate allowed. New Orleans is only 28th in pressure rate. That should help Carr, who has been struggling this season, even from a clean pocket. Among quarterbacks with at least 25 dropbacks from a clean pocket, Carr is 31st in PFF passing grade, 22nd in yards per attempt, and 27th in adjusted completion rate.

Andy Dalton: Dalton looks to remain the Saints’ starter. News flash. He’s playing better than most would like to admit. He’s second in PFF passing grade, 16th in yards per attempt, 17th in adjusted completion rate, and 13th in big-time throw rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). He finished as the QB2 in fantasy last week, exploding for 361 passing yards and four passing scores. Dalton is a strong QB2 that could easily find himself in the top 12 again this week. The Raiders have allowed the sixth-highest success rate per dropback while ranking 27th in passing yards per game and 26th in explosive pass rate.

Running Backs

In the year 2022:

Josh Jacobs is an elite RB.

I have been bodied. This pain is real.

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) October 26, 2022

Josh Jacobs: Jacobs has been an elite fantasy running back this season. Since Week 4, the team has committed to him as a bell-cow averaging 83% of the snaps with 27.3 touches and 174.3 total yards per game. Jacobs is the RB2 in fantasy, ranking first in opportunity share, eighth in weighted opportunities, sixth in red zone touches, tenth in routes run. Jacobs is third in juke rate, second in evaded tackles, and 14th in breakaway runs. Jacobs takes on a Saints’ run defense that has fallen from their former elite perch. This season they are 22nd in rushing yards per game, 17th in explosive run rate, and 25th in open-field yards. Jacobs is a top-five fantasy running back weekly.

Alvin Kamara: Since his return in Week 5, Kamara has played at least 69% of the snaps weekly, averaging 24 touches and 141 total yards. Over the last three games, he’s 26th in yards after contact per attempt, fifth in runs of ten-plus yards, and 25th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 15 carries). In Week 7, he logged his highest yards after contact per attempt and elusive rating since Week 1, so the injuries must be in the rearview mirror. Kamara is eighth in opportunity share and ninth in weighted opportunities, but he’s only 26th in red zone touches. The good news is that he’s logged four red zone looks in two of his last three games, so that usage seems to be trending upward, as he has only two red zone touches in his other three games. The Raiders have been a tough team to run on, ranking top-ten in rushing yards per game, EPA per rush, and eighth in explosive run rate. They are seventh in adjusted line yards and tenth in open field yards allowed. If the Saints don’t wait until the fourth quarter to get Kamara involved in the passing game, he should be able to do damage through the air. Kamara is third in Target share (20.2%) and eighth in yards per route run. The Raiders are 23rd in DVOA against running backs, surrendering the third-most receptions per game, the fourth-most receiving yards per game, and the 11th-highest yards per reception. Kamara is a steady RB1.

Mark Ingram: Ingram remains only a low-end handcuff. Since Kamara’s return, he’s averaged 22-33% of the snaps with 8.6 touches and 31.7 total yards. Over that span, he has only one red zone touch.

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams: Adams remains a weekly WR1. He’s the WR6 in fantasy points per game with a 32.0% Target share (fourth) and 28.4% target per route run rate (15th). Adams is 13th in deep targets and second in red zone targets. He ranks seventh in PFF receiving grade and 13th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). The Saints remain zone-based in the coverage, with at least 55% of their corner snaps last week coming in zone coverage. Adams has seen 63.8% of his target volume against zone, ranking eighth in PFF receiving grade and 11th in yards per route run against zone (minimum five targets). With Marshon Lattimore ruled out, Adams will run about 70% of his routes against rookie Alontae Taylor (16.7% catch rate, 39.6 passer rating, six targets) and possibly backup safety Bryce Thompson (zero targets, five coverage snaps). Watch the Saturday and Sunday news for Adams who is dealing with a rough bout of the flu. He was DNP all week before a limited session on Friday and a questionable tag.

Hunter Renfrow: Renfrow has become an afterthought in this offense. Over his last two games played, he has a 13.2% Target share despite 1.9 yards per route run. He’s only seen a 68.9% route run rate over that two-game sample. Renfrow hasn’t drawn a red zone target since Week 2. He’s a low-floor WR4/5.

Mack Hollins: Hollins has been listed as questionable (heel). Hollins has a 15.7% Target share, and two top 36 wide receiver finishes under his belt. He’s been heavily involved in the deep passing game (nine targets, 17th) and red zone (six targets, 23rd). Hollins is a WR5 that will run about 86% of his routes against Taylor and Thompson.

Chris Olave: Olave has been a mega-producer and arguably the best rookie wide receiver in the NFL when he’s been active. In his full games played, he’s seen a 27.4% Target share with 42.6% of the team’s air yards. He has stacked a 77.9 PFF receiving grade and 2.38 yards per route run in those weeks. This season, those would rank 15th and 11th-best among wide receivers (minimum 15 targets). Olave leads the NFL in deep targets, and now he faces a pass defense ranked 26th in DVOA against deep passing. Olave is a WR2 that will run about 74% of his routes against Rock Ya-Sin (47.8% catch rate, 66.4 passer rating) and Anthony Averett (80% catch rate, 158.3 passer rating).

Tre’Quan Smith: Since Week 5, Smith has played 61-83% of snaps with a 66.1% route run rate and a 12.9% Target share. Over the last three games, he’s finished as a top 36 wide receiver twice with 1.47 yards per route run and two red zone targets. He’ll run 60% of his routes against Amik Robertson (77.8% catch rate, 126.9 passer rating). Smith is an upside flex.

Marquez Callaway: Since Week 4, Callaway has played at least 70% of snaps weekly with a 16.9% Target share, 25.6% air yard share (80.8% route run rate), and two red zone targets. Over the last four games, he hasn’t finished higher than WR46 in fantasy. He’ll run about 92% of his routes against Ya-Sin and Averett as a WR6.

Michael Thomas: Thomas has been ruled out.

Jarvis Landry: Landry has been ruled out.

Tight Ends

Darren Waller: Waller has been listed as questionable after limited practices all week. In the three games Waller has played a full-time role this season, he’s been underwhelming as the TE9, TE29, and TE29. He handled a 15.7% with an 83.3% route run rate and 1.14 yards per route run. He averaged only 5.7 targets, 3.3 receptions, and 41.7 receiving yards per game. Waller is a low-end TE1 if he plays. New Orleans is first in DVOA against tight ends limiting them to the second-lowest catch rate, ninth-lowest yards per reception, and zero touchdowns.

Foster Moreau: If Waller is out, Moreau will be the full-time tight end, but there are better streamers than Moreau. The Saints have been an elite unit at defending the tight end for multiple seasons. Moreau would be a TE2.

Juwan Johnson: Juwan Johnson, my king. Last week he turned his five targets into 32 receiving yards and two scores. Since Week 6, he’s played at least 76% of the snaps with an 11.1% Target share and 76.5% route run rate. He ranks 11th in deep targets and tenth in red zone targets among tight ends. Johnson is a decent TE2 and streaming option this week against a Raiders defense that ranks 16th in DVOA against tight ends with the 14th-most receiving yards per game allowed. Johnson has been listed as questionable with a hamstring issue. He logged limited practices on Thursday and Friday putting him in line to play.

BAL vs. TB | DEN vs. JAC | CAR vs. ATL | CHI vs. DAL | MIA vs. DET | ARI vs. MIN | LV vs. NO | NE vs. NYJ | PIT vs. PHI | TEN vs. HOU | WAS vs. IND | SF vs. LAR | NYG vs. SEA | GB vs. BUF | CIN vs. CLE

New England Patriots vs. New York Jets

• NE -1.5, O/U 41
• Patriots vs. Jets Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Zach Wilson returned to the huddle, the Jets are 18th in neutral pace with the 12th-highest neutral rushing rate.
• The Patriots are comfortable with who they have been since Tom Brady‘s departure. They are 28th in neutral pace with the seventh-highest neutral rushing rate. Feed Mondre SZN continues.

Quarterbacks

Mac Jones: Jones looks like he’ll get his starting job back this week. With the uncertainty that he could be pulled at the drop of a hat, Jones is a low-end QB2 better left on your bench. The Jets have given up the tenth-lowest success rate per dropback, sixth-lowest yards per attempt, and the 12th-lowest passing touchdown rate.

Zach Wilson: Wilson remains a basement-level QB2. He’s been the QB27 and QB26 in fantasy over the last two weeks. The Jets don’t want him throwing the ball, and neither should you. Since his return, he’s averaged 25.3 passing attempts with 6.8 yards per attempt and only one passing touchdown. The Patriots are fifth in pass defense DVOA with the fifth-lowest EPA per dropback and second-lowest success rate per dropback allowed. New England’s pass rush, which ranks third in pressure and sixth in blitz rates, will rattle Wilson. Wilson is 36th in pressured completion rate and accuracy rating. Even in SuperFlex formats, I would be playing a positional player over Wilson.

Running Backs

Week 7

Rhamondre Stevenson: Mondre SZN can’t be stopped. It won’t be stopped, and apparently, the NE coaching staff agrees, as Stevenson was the clear lead despite Harris returning. Stevenson played 77% of the snaps with 19 touches. He turned them into 98 total yards as the RB5 for the week. Pick a metric. Any metric, and Stevenson is probably top-24 among running backs in it. Stevenson is sixth in juke rate, third in evaded tackles, 20th in yards per route run, and 21st in yards created per touch. The Jets are no cakewalk for running backs. They are top-ten in adjusted line yards, second-level yards, and open-field yards. They have given up the 14th-lowest EPA per rush and 13th-lowest explosive run rate. New York is also fourth in DVOA against running backs, with the fifth-lowest yards per reception allowed. Stevenson remains an RB2 despite the rough assignment.

Damien Harris: Harris only played 17% of the snaps with four touches (ten yards). This backfield could belong to Stevenson now, or if we want to be more optimistic, Harris could have been game-scripted out last week. Either way, It’s impossible to play Harris this week, considering the brutal run defense he faces and last week’s usage. Sit Harris.

Michael Carter: Last week, Carter played 73% of the snaps with 15 touches and 74 total yards. He saw an 8.3% Target share with a 38.7% route run rate. Carter is tough to trust as anything more than a low-end RB2/ high-end RB3, with Ty Johnson and James Robinson possibly eating into this workload. After an efficient rookie season, Carter has struggled to follow it up in his sophomore season. Among 66 running backs with at least 20 carries, he ranks 60th in yards after contact per attempt, 25th in breakaway run rate, and 34th in PFF’s elusive rating. He has remained a plus in the passing game, though, ranking 15th in yards per route run and 11th in PFF receiving grade (minimum ten targets), which will help him, especially this week. The Patriots are 26th in rushing yards per game, 28th in EPA per rush, and 25th in explosive run rate allowed. New England is also 30th in DVOA against running backs allowing the highest yards per reception. If Carter gets the lion’s share of the work, he could easily be a top 15 running back this week, but there’s risk involved with Robinson and Johnson.

James Robinson: Robinson is a volatile and probably touchdown-dependent RB3/4 this week with an uncertain role. New York didn’t give up much to acquire his services, but Robinson isn’t the type of running back you build your run game around at this juncture in his career. Among running backs with 20 or more carries, he’s 45th in yards after contact per attempt and 56th in PFF’s elusive rating. He has only two runs of more than ten yards since Week 3 and zero games above 2.5 yards after contact per attempt over the last four weeks. Robinson hasn’t registered a PFF elusive rating over 30 since Week 2.

Wide Receivers

Jakobi Meyers: With the churning uncertainty of quarterback, Meyers saw only two targets last week. Luckily, he secured one for a touchdown to finish as the WR33 in fantasy. Meyers is the WR17 in fantasy points per game with top 36 finishes in three of five games. Meyers is quietly turning in a fantastic season, ranking 14th in PFF receiving grade and 11th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). His biggest issue remains the lack of red zone usage, with zero red zone targets this season. Meyers has a 22.9% Target share and 30.9% air yard share (24th). Meyers should be the focal point of the Pats passing attack this week against the only decent cornerback matchup. He’ll run about 70% of his routes against Michael Carter (73.3% catch rate, 95.0 passer rating). Meyers is a low-end WR2/high-end WR3.

DeVante Parker: Parker has seen a 13.8% Target share with 26.4% of the team’s air yards. He’s the WR75 in fantasy points per game with three finishes outside the top 100 fantasy wide receivers. He’s 44th in PFF receiving grade and 47th in yards per route run as the team’s field stretcher (11 deep targets, eighth among WRs). Parker is a WR5/6 this week, running about 90% of his routes against the teeth of the Jets’ secondary. He’ll see Sauce Gardner (42.5% catch rate, 51.1 passer rating) and D.J. Reed (52.8% catch rate, 56.3 passer rating) on nearly every route. Good luck, Parker.

Tyquan Thornton: Over the last two weeks, Thornton has had a 16.9% Target share (five targets per game) with a 90.3% route run rate. With 81% of his routes on the perimeter over that stretch, he’s also in for a long day against Gardner and Reed. Thornton falls into the same WR5/6 bucket as Parker.

Garrett Wilson: With Zach Wilson back under center, Garrett Wilson has seen his season go into the dumpster. Since Week 4, he has a 21.1% Target share which has netted him five targets and 25 receiving yards per game (4.7 aDOT). With only short-area targets incoming and a low-volume passing offense, Garrett Wilson doesn’t see the volume to be productive in fantasy. He also hasn’t drawn a red zone target since Week 3. Wilson will run about 53% of his routes against Myles Bryant (71.4% catch rate, 101.3 passer rating) as a WR5/6.

Elijah Moore: Moore should return to the lineup this week as a full-time player. In Weeks 1-5, he saw a meager 14.5% Target share with an 86.8% route run rate and 1.03 yards per route run. Moore will run about 75% of his routes against a mix of Jonathon Jones (52.6% catch rate, 78.6 passer rating), Jack Jones (48% catch rate, 37.6 passer rating), and Jalen Mills (62.5% catch rate, 84.0 passer rating). Moore is a WR6 that is better left on the waiver wire or your bench.

Corey Davis: Davis has been ruled out.

Tight Ends

Hunter Henry: Since Week 4, Henry has had an 18% Target share (4.5 targets per game) with an 82.6% route run rate as the TE17 in fantasy. Over the last four games, he has had four red zone targets. Henry is a mid-TE2 and a decent matchup streamer. The Jets have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends while ranking 13th in yards per reception.

Tyler Conklin: Since Week 4, no Jets tight ends are playable in fantasy. None have seen more than 3.5 targets per game or a route run rate higher than 53.4%. New England is sixth in DVOA against tight ends.

BAL vs. TB | DEN vs. JAC | CAR vs. ATL | CHI vs. DAL | MIA vs. DET | ARI vs. MIN | LV vs. NO | NE vs. NYJ | PIT vs. PHI | TEN vs. HOU | WAS vs. IND | SF vs. LAR | NYG vs. SEA | GB vs. BUF | CIN vs. CLE