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No House Advantage Pick ‘Ems Week 7 (2022 NFL Football)

No House Advantage Pick ‘Ems Week 7 (2022 NFL Football)

The recent explosion of online betting and new, inventive ways to play fantasy sports has most of our heads spinning. No House Advantage’s new app lets you stack over/under prop bets to win real money. I’ll be here weekly, giving you my favorite prop bet plays to help you build a winning stack.

Early Slate

No House Advantage offers three options for their Pick ‘Ems contest this Sunday for the early 1 PM EST Slate. Entry fees range from $5 to $50. The following prop bet picks apply to all three contests.

Leonard Fournette (RB – TB) OVER 64.5 Rushing Yards

This week, the reeling Tampa bay Buccaneers face off against a Carolina Panthers team in disarray. While nothing is a sure thing, the Bucs running away with this one feels close. As of late, QB Tom Brady has struggled, and this is the perfect opportunity to keep the ball on the ground.

Carolina is giving up the sixth most rushing yards per game (133.3). While Tampa has the fewest average rushing yards per game in 2022 (67.5), this is a situation where Fournette should flourish. I’m taking the over on this rushing prop but keeping it as a mid-priority play.

Daniel Jones (QB – NYG) UNDER 203.5 Passing Yards

The New York Giants are off to an unexpectedly hot start this season. Currently sitting at 5-1 and in second place in the shockingly powerful NFC East. Giants QB Daniel Jones has been efficient in leading this team to relevance so far this season, but it hasn’t been flashy because they simply haven’t needed him to be. RB Saquon Barkley has carried the load for this team, returning to his 2019 dominating form.

Jones has thrown for more than 200 yards only once this season, in a Week 5 upset of the Green Bay Packers. This week, against Jacksonville, I expect more of the same, with Saquon leading the charge. The Jaguars have been stellar against the run but have yet to face a ball carrier as talented as Barkley. Jones will continue to be a game manager, and I’m taking the under on this prop as a mid-priority play.

D.J. Moore (WR – CAR) UNDER 4.5 Receptions

After firing head coach Matt Rhule, to end out Week 5, the Carolina Panthers went into full rebuild mode, trading away WR Robbie Anderson this past Monday. Then in a stunning move, the team parted ways with RB Christian McCaffery, sending him to San Francisco for draft picks. That leaves this offense with RBs D’Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard, WR D.J. Moore, and a bunch of “who’s that guy” guys. It should be time for Moore to shine, given that he’s the most talented veteran on this team. In theory, this sounds great. In practice, however, it is unlikely to materialize this week.

Tampa Bay is allowing the ninth fewest passing yards per game (219) in the league right now, and Carolina is trotting out former XFL stand-out QB P.J. Walker behind center this week. I cannot imagine interim head coach Steve Wilks will risk throwing the ball much against one of the better pass defenses in the NFL. I’m taking the under on this prop and making it a high-priority play.

Taylor Heinicke (QB – WAS) OVER 0.5 Interceptions

Commanders starting QB Carson Wentz suffered a broken finger last week and appears to be headed to injured reserve. Back-up Taylor Heinicke will take the reigns of this offense heading into a Week 7 match-up against the faltering Green Bay Packers. Heinicke, who was the starter in Washington for 16 of their 17 games in 2021, had his best game last season against a much better Green Bay team with fewer weapons on offense. However, he threw for only one touchdown and added an interception in that contest.

This is Heinicke’s first game back in the saddle, and while I do think he will play well, I also expect mistakes and miscommunications. I see an interception or two against this underperforming yet talented secondary. I’m taking the over on this interception prop for Heinicke and playing it with confidence as a high-priority bet.

Late Afternoon Slate

No House Advantage offers one option for their Pick ‘Ems contest this Sunday for the late afternoon Slate with a $15 entry fee. The following prop bet picks apply to this contest.

Brevin Jordan (TE – HOU) OVER 2.5 Receptions

Houston tight end Brevin Jordan is back this week after missing three games due to a hamstring injury. The Texans have not been good in his absence, or before, if we’re being honest, and have begun leaning more and more on rookie RB Dameon Pierce. Jordan, who is the highest-graded pass-blocking tight end on this team, should see a decent snap share against the Raiders this week.

Las Vegas has been abysmal against TEs this season, allowing the third most fantasy points to the position in the league. If the Texans want to win this game, QB Davis Mills will have to use his bookends more than usual. While fellow TE Jordan Akins has earned an expanded role during Jordan’s absence, I expect him to be involved enough in this offensive attack to get three or more catches. I’m taking the over on this prop but keeping it as a low priority.

Travis Kelce (TE – KC) OVER 6.5 Receptions

I keep waiting to see all Travis Kelce props removed from every platform, including No House Advantage, yet here we are. The elite Kansas City TE has proven to be the focal point of this powerful offense this season. With Tyreek Hill shipped off to Miami, many thought either of the WR free-agent acquisitions, JuJu Smith-Schuster or Marquez Valdez-Scantling, would emerge, but that hasn’t happened. It’s been the Kelce show, and that’s not stopping this week.

The Chiefs are looking to rebound from a disappointing loss to the Bills in Week 6. San Francisco presents a tough challenge, but this is Travis Kelce. I cannot fathom him seeing less than 12 targets in this game, and over 6.5 catches seem like child’s play. I’m taking this prop without question and playing it as a high priority.

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If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

Nate Polvogt is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him @NatePolvogt.

 

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