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2024 NFL Mock Draft: Early Picks & Predictions

2024 NFL Mock Draft: Early Picks & Predictions

For a particular crowd, myself included, there is no such thing as a “way-too-early” mock draft. I have enough self-awareness, though, to take a step back and recognize that my interest in the NFL Draft borders closely on obsession, so alas, here is my objectively “way-too-early” mock for the 2024 NFL Draft.

Note on draft order: I just used inverse Super Bowl odds. So if you don’t agree with the order, just know that I don’t either in some places, and those are our valid yet irrelevant opinions here.

Dynasty Rookie Draft Kit

2024 Way-Too-Early Mock Draft (Fantasy Football)

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TRADE): Caleb Williams (QB – USC)

It feels crazy to include a prospective trade within a prospective draft order for an event that’s still a year away, but it almost feels more realistic to include one atop the 2024 Draft because the team picking No. 1 overall will be the winner of the Caleb Williams sweepstakes. I do my best to limit any hyperbole around my NFL Draft writing, but it is already that likely for Williams to become the next first-overall pick.

Even if Williams has a down season compared to 2022 or deals with an injury — and even if the supposed QB2 has a monster season in 2023 — it probably doesn’t matter. “Chosen One” QBs rarely surrender their place atop the totem pole, and the 2022 Heisman winner deserves that title with his rare combination of arm talent and creativity.

Ryan Leaf challenged Peyton Manning, Robert Griffin III challenged Andrew Luck, Marcus Mariota challenged Jameis Winston, Zach Wilson challenged Trevor Lawrence…you get the point. As of this week, Williams has negative odds to be the top pick in 2024 before playing a down in 2023 – and it makes sense.

As for the mocked trade here, I wouldn’t make too much of it, aside from Tampa being all-in on Williams and Arizona remaining committed to Kyler Murray through their impending rebuild. I know it’s still so early, but I’m surprised how many other forecasters are ready for the Cardinals to bail on Kyler. I get it and personally might even endorse it, but I don’t see it happening.

2. Arizona Cardinals (via Houston Texans): Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR – Ohio State)

If you are going to sprinkle some betting action on anyone else’s odds for the 2024 first-overall pick aside from Caleb Williams, don’t make it another QB; make it Marvin Harrison Jr. He easily would have been the top wideout in the 2023 class had he been age-eligible, and he doesn’t have to worry about losing that status come 2024. At 6-foot-4 with pedigree, production, and the total package of speed and strength, Harrison is the best WR prospect since…Calvin Johnson? Larry Fitzgerald?

Wide receivers are more highly valued now than they were back then too, and it’s not inconceivable for a team with a QB already in place to land the No. 1 pick. So while that team would likely trade the pick in that outcome, Harrison might be the top option should they instead stay and pick.

3. Arizona Cardinals (TRADE): Olu Fashanu (OT – Penn State)

While Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr weren’t able to enter the 2023 Draft, Olu Fashanu (Williams’ high school teammate) could have declared as a redshirt sophomore but instead opted to return to Penn State for another season. Good! There is an emerging trend of young offensive tackles entering the Draft as soon as possible despite needing further development, like Broderick Jones in the latest Draft.

Fashanu, still 20 years old, shouldn’t worry about losing his top-10 pick status. With continued health and even better play, clearly, I believe Fashanu can upgrade himself to top-three pick status. Though the Cardinals did just select Paris Johnson with the sixth overall pick, that selection just about removed all confidence in DJ Humphries being a key part of their rebuild plan, and they don’t have much at OT on the roster after him.

4. Indianapolis Colts: Joe Alt (OT – Notre Dame)

At 6-foot-8 and 315 lbs, it’s been a long time since a prospect has looked the part of a future franchise left tackle more than Joe Alt. It doesn’t hurt that he’s the son of a Pro Bowl OT, either. Alt, who’s been starting at LT for Notre Dame since his freshman year, has the game to match his textbook frame, too; he was named a 2022 First-Team All-American.

The Colts have addressed the LT position with mid-round draft picks and stopgap free agents since the retirement of Anthony Castonzo, not dissimilar to their organizational approach to QB until selecting Anthony Richardson. Like Indy hopes for Richardson at QB, Alt could put a permanent end to their game of musical chairs at LT.

5. Tennessee Titans: JT Tuimoloau (EDGE – Ohio State)

Barring any unforeseen developments, JT Tuimoloau is a Round 1 lock for 2024, though mocking him in the top five involves some heavy projection. Tuimoloau, a consensus five-star recruit and one of the top overall dudes from the Class of 2021, is already a good player for the Buckeyes, but he hasn’t consistently produced at the level of a top-five pick yet.

But when he flashes, as he did against Penn State in what immediately became legendary tape, he looks more like Chase Young did at Ohio State. As a bigger EDGE at 270+ pounds, Tuimoloau would be a perfect fit for Tennessee’s defense and could seamlessly replace Denico Autry for the Titans.

6. Washington Commanders: Dallas Turner (EDGE – Alabama)

The subtext of this pick for Washington might be more interesting than the pick itself, and who knows if ‘Commanders’ will even still be the team name by this point. Anyway, I have Sam Howell playing capably enough in 2023 for the Commanders to bypass drafting another QB in this spot. (Howell playing well enough doesn’t really add up with them picking at No. 6 in a year, but I didn’t make up this order, so just roll with it).

Upon the graduation of Will Anderson to the NFL, Dallas Turner is next up as the superstar pass rusher for the Crimson Tide. Montez Sweat and Chase Young are each entering contract years, and it’s unlikely that Washington will keep both of them. Their organizational infatuation with the Alabama program is well-documented too.

7. Los Angeles Rams: Drake Maye (QB – North Carolina)

This could prove five spots too low for Drake Maye by the time of the 2024 Draft, but he does only have one year of starting experience under his belt, and the 2023 Draft reminded us once again: there are only so many teams willing to take QBs in Round 1 every year! The Rams with Matt Stafford might not jump out as one of those QB-needy teams, but it’s certainly possible that they’ll look to deal Stafford and the $31 million guaranteed to him for 2024 — if Stafford doesn’t sort it out himself by retiring before then. Very few college QBs have ever boasted arm talent like Stafford’s, but Maye is close, and he’d also introduce an element of mobility to Sean McVay’s offense that neither Stafford nor Jared Goff had.

8. Las Vegas Raiders: JC Latham (OT – Alabama)

The Raiders’ decision to allocate zero of their nine picks in the 2023 Draft towards the offensive line was a shocking one, and also one that has the potential to immediately backfire with Jimmy Garoppolo in the pocket. Time will tell if the Dave Ziegler and Josh McDaniels duo gets a third year at the helm, but JC Latham would be a wise selection for the Raiders in any event. Latham was both figuratively and literally a huge recruit for Alabama, and the 335-pound right tackle has lived up to the hype so far in Tuscaloosa. Latham and Kolten Miller would be strong bookends of an offensive line for Las Vegas.

9. Atlanta Falcons: Malik Nabers (WR – LSU)

Though currently not listed as the WR2 in the 2024 class on big boards yet, Malik Nabers has the potential to skyrocket his stock during the 2023 season. Nabers caught 72 balls for 1,017 yards for LSU as a 19-year-old true sophomore — including nearly 300 yards combined in his final two games against Georgia and Purdue –, and now he’ll no longer have to compete with Kayshon Boutte for target share.

Nabers is at his best with the ball in his hands, so he’d fit right into Arthur Smith’s master plan for a positionless offense. I’m not going to suddenly opt against mocking a young, dynamic offensive weapon to the Falcons after they’ve taken one in the top 10 three years running.

10. Pittsburgh Steelers: Emeka Egbuka (WR – Ohio State)

Emeka Egbuka is regularly ranked as the WR2 in the 2024 class — and for good reason, following his 2022 season with over 1,200 total yards and 12 touchdowns. Though Egbuka is another former five-star recruit playing wide receiver for the Buckeyes, he doesn’t have Chris Olave‘s top-end speed or Garrett Wilson‘s wizardly body control. Still, he’s a savvy route runner with refreshingly good physicality and size for a college wideout at 6-foot-1, 205 pounds.

Even with George Pickens in the fold, Pittsburgh’s WR future is bleak. Allen Robinson could be a serviceable WR3 for the 2023 Steelers, but he’s nothing more than a Band-Aid acquisition, and 2024 is Diontae Johnson‘s contract year too.

2023 NFL Draft Guide: Prospect Rankings & Player Profiles

11. New York Giants: Jack Sawyer (EDGE – Ohio State)

The new-look front office of the Giants has already made one big investment at EDGE with the selection of Kayvon Thibodeaux, but the depth is pretty shallow at the opposite EDGE spot in Wink Martindale’s defense. With Azeez Ojulari‘s struggles to stay healthy across a full season, he might be better suited for a pass rush specialist role at this point, leaving a gap on the roster for another versatile, every-down EDGE who can reliably contain his side of the line. Sawyer, a former five-star recruit and high school QB who’s listed at 265 pounds, could fit that bill.

12. New England Patriots: Joe Milton (QB – Tennessee)

I’ll preface this atypical inclusion of Joe Milton in a 2024 mock draft with the immediate concession that this is a bit of a cop-out. Almost every year, there is the one quarterback who unexpectedly bursts onto the Round 1 scene during the 2023 college football season, and this upcoming season has way more candidates than usual: Quinn Ewers, JJ McCarthy, KJ Jefferson, Bo Nix, Jordan Travis, etc. But the cop-out ends with the declaration that I’m planting my flag on Milton as that guy.

I don’t expect Josh Heupel’s Tennessee offense to skip a beat in 2023 despite Hendon Hooker, Jalin Hyatt, Cedric Tillman and Darnell Wright going to the NFL. Doubling down on that take, I think there’s a chance it’s even better with Milton under center. Milton has an absolute rocket launcher of a right arm, and it’s not like he doesn’t know how to wield it yet; he carved Clemson in the Orange Bowl following Hooker’s ACL injury.

I don’t buy the idea of Bill O’Brien putting Mac Jones fully back on track in New England, which would then place the Patriots in the QB market come 2024. Could this be the first NFL Draft selection for Head Coach Jerod Mayo, a former Volunteer himself?

13. Minnesota Vikings: Michael Penix Jr. (QB – Washington)

Like I said in Drake Maye’s above write-up: be careful about mocking too many QBs in Round 1. That said, short of a trade for Trey Lance or a similar type of veteran acquisition, it’s hard to imagine the Vikings not targeting Kirk Cousins‘ successor in this Draft. Michael Penix Jr. will certainly have his critics once he officially becomes a prospect: he’s torn his ACL twice, had an up-and-down tenure across his four years at Indiana, has a herky-jerky lefty release, and he’ll be 24 by Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season.

Still, he’s a gamer with good enough size and definitely a good enough arm, and he can dish it around an offense as well as anyone in the nation. There’s a chance for Penix to threaten 5,000 passing yards in 2023 if he starts every game of the season, and that could cement him as a first-rounder.

14. Green Bay Packers: Kool-Aid McKinstry (CB – Alabama)

This one makes too much sense, and not only because it would be a full-circle moment from HaHa Clinton-Dix to Kool-Aid McKinstry of Alabama DBs with fun names going to Green Bay in Round 1. Things can change over the course of a year — almost nobody had Devon Witherspoon or Christian Gonzalez as the CB1 going into the 2022 college football season — but McKinstry looks like the clear-cut top dog at cornerback for next year’s class. He has the pedigree, size, and elite athleticism — his 15.8 yards per punt return ranked third in the nation — to check all of the Packers’ strict parameters.

15. Chicago Bears: Jared Verse (EDGE – Florida State)

The NFL Draft community collectively got a bit too excited over Verse when it seemed likely for him to enter the 2023 Draft. Without fail, we’ll always wish there was just one more elite prospect at EDGE in every single NFL Draft class because these guys get ruthlessly picked apart once they actually declare. I mean, we were just subjected to arguments over whether Will Anderson is truly a supreme prospect.

It’s easy to hypothetically gush over Verse, a highly skilled pass rusher who logged 17 TFLs and nine sacks in his first year at the FBS level. He’s also a sub-260-pound transfer from Albany who missed time in 2022 due to a knee injury and will be 23.5 years old by the time of his NFL rookie debut. Trust me. My aim isn’t to temper excitement over Verse; I’m just getting ahead of what his narrative could sound like as a prospect. This range could prove more realistic for him, where he’d be a dream fit and a Day 1 starter for the Bears.

16. Chicago Bears (via Carolina Panthers): Calen Bullock (S – USC)

The top tier of the 2023 class at safety was dismal; Brian Branch was the first one off the board at Pick 45. Safety is definitely a polarizing position when it comes to the NFL Draft, but for now, it at least appears that the 2024 class will have a few more candidates for Round 1. Arguably atop that list is Calen Bullock, a 6-foot-3 true junior who logged five interceptions for the Trojans in 2022. If the Bears were able to pair up a ballhawk like Bullock with the do-it-all Jaquan Brisker, that could give them one of the more formidable duos at the back end of their defense in the league.

17. Seattle Seahawks: Brock Bowers (TE – Georgia)

Pick 17 feels way too low for Brock Bowers, who’s ludicrously good with the ball in his hands and has been the best tight end in the nation ever since he stepped foot onto Georgia’s campus. He’s easily a top-10 talent in the 2024 Draft, and it’s possible that one team views him like the Falcons viewed Bijan Robinson and eschews positional value to take him in that range anyway.

Then again, we all just watched another surefire Round 1 talent at tight end in Michael Mayer fall into Round 2, and I wouldn’t say that either Kyle Pitts or TJ Hockenson have lived up to their billing on rookie contracts as top 10 picks. Seattle’s front office has done a total of 180 with their Draft philosophy in recent years, transforming from one of the league’s wonkiest drafters into one of the top “don’t overthink this” teams. They’ll have a gap at TE1, too, with Noah Fant entering his likely final year as a Seahawk.

18. New Orleans Saints: Jeremiah Trotter Jr. (LB – Clemson)

If any position had a worse top tier in the 2023 Draft than safety, it was linebacker — though apparently, nobody told the Lions that. After they made the stunning decision to submit the Pick 18 card for Jack Campbell, another off-ball linebacker wasn’t drafted until Drew Sanders at Pick 67. And even if that was too late for Sanders, who I and many others had graded as the LB1, there’s a logical argument that his eventual range made more sense than Campbell’s.

Recent history for off-ball linebackers selected in Round 1 is dreadful, honestly worse than Round 1 running backs, but the rare hits at the position are those who are selected high enough to be true outliers — like Roquan Smith at Pick 8 in 2018. He’ll need to back it up over another full season for Clemson, but Jeremiah Trotter Jr. could prove himself as that caliber of an instinctive linebacker to justify comparisons to Smith and Round 1 value. For the Saints, a signal-calling middle linebacker is paramount to success for Dennis Allen’s defense, and Demario Davis‘ remarkable run in black and gold might be coming to an end soon.

19. Denver Broncos: Braelon Allen (RB – Wisconsin)

Ah, yes: a Round 1 running back following a Round 1 linebacker. Old-timey football fans, rejoice! For starters, Sean Payton is one of the decision-makers around the league who’d be willing to do this for the right bell cow without thinking twice. And honestly, looking at the Broncos’ current RB room…I’d get it.

Javonte Williams‘ future in Denver seems murky at best, and I don’t exactly think Samaje Perine is the long-term answer for them, either. It remains to be seen who emerges as the RB1 in the 2024 class, but I’ll place my chips on Braelon Allen. Potentially the next great workhorse back for the Badgers, Allen is only 19 years old yet weighs 235 pounds and reportedly runs a 10-yard split in 1.49 seconds. If he backs that up at the next Combine, Allen could offer GMs across the league a do-over for passing on Jonathan Taylor in 2020.

20. Miami Dolphins: Amarius Mims (OT – Georgia)

Amarius Mims has done just about the bare minimum on the field to earn this placement; he has one career start to his name for the Bulldogs. That has everything to do with Broderick Jones and Warren McClendon being entrenched as Georgia’s starters at OT, though and nothing to do with Mims’ ability.

Mims, a consensus five-star recruit, is a mammoth at 6-foot-7, and an exponentially upward trajectory for him would be similar to the one that just landed Broderick Jones in the top half of Round 1. It’s inconceivable that Austin Jackson is still atop Miami’s depth chart at RT, so this pick would be long overdue for Tua Tagovailoa and Dolphins fans everywhere.

Draft Wizard

21. Los Angeles Chargers: Maason Smith (DT – LSU)

Though not nearly to the same degree as Mims, Maason Smith is another projection as a Round 1 prospect. Arguably the top non-QB recruit in the Class of 2021, Smith had a promising debut season for LSU as a true freshman before tearing his ACL in the 2022 season opener. Assuming a return to full health, this spot could prove too low for the gifted and ideally-sized Smith (6-foot-5, 310 pounds). The Chargers’ deficiencies on the defensive line predate the team’s relocation to Los Angeles, so this match goes without explanation.

22. Houston Texans (via Cleveland Browns): Kalen King (CB – Penn State)

Kalen King was one of college football’s breakout stars on the defensive side of the ball in 2022, as he responded to a high volume of targets as Joey Porter Jr.’s counterpart with a conference-leading 21 passes defended. We’ll see how he handles a presumed downtick in targets in 2023, but that might not even matter much for his draft stock; King was a good recruit and has the requisite size and athleticism of an NFL cornerback. The Texans totally neglected CB in the 2023 Draft, and their foundation at the position beyond Derek Stingley is basically non-existent.

23. Jacksonville Jaguars: Donovan Jackson (OG – Ohio State)

Jacksonville just spent its most recent Round 1 pick on the left side of their offensive line, but doubling down to pair Anton Harrison with an ascendant guard like Donovan Jackson could be the best strategy for keeping Trevor Lawrence upright and the Jags’ offense firing on all cylinders. The idea of this pairing could become increasingly realistic with further clarity into Jacksonville’s future plans for Cam Robinson — if he’s even part of their short-term plans following his PED suspension.

24. Detroit Lions: Graham Barton (OG – Duke)

With Graham Barton, we have a left tackle with dominant tape but questionable length who’s entering the NFL from an academic institution with weak football. Sound familiar? It should, because there’s a good chance that all discussion that surrounded Peter Skoronski over the last couple of months will be taken off the ice and recycled for Duke’s Barton.

While Skoronski is probably the more athletically skilled of the two, Barton is more of the bulldozing type who might be more natural for a forced move inside to guard. Detroit has worked diligently to build a great offensive line, and I doubt they are willing to let that go once Jonah Jackson and Halapoulivaati Vaitai hit free agency following 2023.

25. Baltimore Ravens: Blake Fisher (OT – Notre Dame)

The pipeline of Notre Dame offensive lineman to the NFL is one of the strongest positional pipelines in existence, and the Ravens can attest to that with Ronnie Stanley as their franchise left tackle. Blake Fisher’s play isn’t at the level of his teammate Joe Alt’s yet; Fisher has struggled with weight and endured a serious knee injury during his freshman season.

But now in better shape and comfortably entrenched at right tackle, 2023 could be the big season that Fighting Irish fans have been waiting for from Fisher. Also, a former five-star recruit, it wouldn’t come as a surprise if Fisher experiences a rapid rise to Round 1 status and mirrors the trajectory of Darnell Wright.

26. Dallas Cowboys: Cooper Beebe (OG – Kansas State)

Though I don’t have Cooper Beebe as the first interior offensive lineman off the board in this exercise, there’s a strong chance that no other IOL prospect in this class will rival his production at the college level. Already named to All-American Teams for his 2022 season, Beebe chose to return to Kansas State for his redshirt senior season for the chance to put unassailable dominance on tape across multiple seasons. There’s zero debate over whether Beebe has NFL size; he’s listed at 332 pounds.

His eventual athletic testing will be worth monitoring, though Beebe was a great left tackle for the Wildcats before kicking inside to guard in 2022 to boost his NFL stock. It’s a guess, but I think he’ll be fine athletically; he’s a bit reminiscent of Steve Avila, who nearly got drafted in Round 1. The Cowboys heavily considered Avila from their spot before going with Mazi Smith, and they’ll likely still have an opening for an LG upgrade come 2024.

27. Green Bay Packers (via New York Jets): James Williams (S – Miami)

Annually during my intensive NFL Draft evaluation as a relatively casual college football fan, I stumble across a couple of underclassmen when scouting the tape of their teammates who warrant a “who is THAT guy” reaction…only for me to quickly learn that underclassman is a former five-star recruit and a famous player at the college level.

Miami’s James Williams, who easily pops on tape as a 6-foot-5 safety, was one of those select players during this most recent cycle. Williams isn’t a complete player yet — his running mate Kamren Kinchens might even be the better safety on the Hurricanes at the moment — but he’s already a coverage mismatch and terrifying downfield presence.

Entering only his true junior year with a legitimately rare build, Williams could be a one-of-one prospect in his class — for better or worse. Some teams might not be tempted to use an early pick on a massive strong safety, but other front offices have historically valued Williams’ mold of a defensive chess piece — the Packers being one of them.

28. San Francisco 49ers: Kingsley Suamataia (OT – BYU)

Aside from Trent Williams, the 49ers typically succeed on offense in spite of their offensive line — not because of it — but the Shanahan/Lynch regime has been reminded before that they can’t entirely scheme around weak play upfront. Clearly, I’m skeptical about Colton McKivitz or Jaylon Moore becoming the long-term solution at right tackle following Mike McGlinchey‘s departure in free agency. Suamataia, a former five-star recruit to Oregon who transferred to BYU, could have what it takes though. At a lean 315 pounds, Suamataia is a force in the run game and would fit San Francisco’s identity.

29. Cincinnati Bengals: Jer’Zhan Newton (DT – Illinois)

The Bengals, on the verge of possibly losing DJ Reader, with BJ Hill also entering a contract year in 2024, need to reinvest in the middle of their defensive line. Fortunately for them, 2024 is shaping up as a deep class at DT; I also considered Miami’s Leonard Taylor and Ohio State’s Michael Hall Jr. and Tyleik Williams here.

Instead, I’m going with Johnny Newton, who likely would’ve heard his name called on Day 2 of the most recent Draft should he not have chosen to return to Champaign for another season in the center of the suddenly dominant Fighting Illini defense. If Newton can repeat his 2022 production — he was named a Second-Team All-American and led all Power 5 interior defensive linemen in pressures and QB hits — then he could secure himself Round 1 status.

30. Buffalo Bills: Michael Hall Jr. (DT – Ohio State)

Shortly after considering him for the Bengals, I’m slating Michael Hall Jr. one pick later to the Bills — and I like this fit for him much more. I’m generally apprehensive with undersized DTs in mock drafts, and Hall is one of them at a listed 6-foot-2, 285 pounds. Hall has only flashed on tape to date, too, with some of that attributed to injury but the current fact of the matter regardless.

He’s extremely twitchy and can storm into backfields in the blink of an eye, though, and it’s not like Hall is comparably small to Calijah Kancey — who just went in Round 1 anyway. Buffalo is one of the few teams around the league who should be in the active market for a three-tech-only type like Hall because they need increased pass rush disruption from the IDL that badly. They drafted Ed Oliver to be that guy, but he’s had an up-and-down tenure with Buffalo and doesn’t have a play style consistent with his athletic profile. (Oliver might not remain on the Bills for long, either).

31. Philadelphia Eagles: Xavier Worthy (WR – Texas)

It’s typically good business to peg a trench player to the Eagles in Round 1 of mock drafts, but they just took three of them within the Top 65 picks of the 2023 Draft. When Howie Roseman has deviated away from OT/DT/EDGE atop the Draft in recent years, it’s exclusively been for wide receivers.

With Quez Watkins entering his contract year and DeVonta Smith eligible for an extension come 2024, it would be wise for Philly to restock a WR room that’s depleted for the future behind Smith and AJ Brown. One or two skinny burners are haphazardly compared to DeSean Jackson ahead of the Draft every year, but Worthy actually might be…*drum roll please*…worthy of that comp.

32. Kansas City Chiefs: Bralen Trice (EDGE – Washington)

Looking ahead to Kansas City’s 2024 depth chart, EDGE might not be their biggest team need — though Mike Danna could leave for a pay raise in free agency. Still, Brett Veach is as good as any GM at filling out the roster with late-round picks and UDFAs, so the Chiefs don’t have many glaring holes in the roster moving forward.

Taking another productive yet potentially overlooked EDGE — Trice had nine sacks in 2022 and led the nation in total pressures according to PFF — would turn an occurrence into a pattern for the Chiefs, following George Karlaftis in 2022, then Felix Anudike-Uzomah in the latest Draft. That would be a wise pattern for the Chiefs, not only because stockpiling a premium position like EDGE is smart but also with Chris Jones set to sign a contract closer in line to an elite EDGE than an elite DT.

2023 Fantasy Football Best Ball Draft Advice

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