The Primer: Week 7 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

The Primer: Week 7 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

Pittsburg Steelers vs. Los Angeles Rams

Pace and playcalling notes

  • Matt Canada leads an uninspiring offense that ranks 17th in neutral pace with the second-highest neutral rushing rate.
  • The slow and throw Rams of SoFI rank 25th in neutral pace with the fifth-highest neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Kenny Pickett: Pickett has been nothing short of dreadful this season as the QB28 in fantasy. Among 32 qualifying quarterbacks, he is 28th in passing grade, 24th in yards per attempt, and 24th in fantasy points per dropback. He has not finished higher than QB15 in any week. The Rams have given up the fewest passing touchdowns (tied, four), the ninth-lowest yards per attempt, and the seventh-lowest passer rating. Sit Pickett. Week 7 Positional Value: Must sit

Matthew Stafford: Stafford has three 300-yard passing games this season, but he has only one game with multiple passing touchdowns. He is third in passing attempts, 12th in red zone passing attempts, and third in passing yards, but he has only six passing touchdowns (18th). Regression is coming for Stafford. I will continue to bet on this and remain ahead of the curve. It would be one thing if I were betting on a quarterback who was playing meh-level football, but Stafford is definitely not. He is fifth in passing grade, sixth in yards per attempt, and first in big-time throw rate. This week, he faces a Steelers’ secondary that has allowed the tenth-highest yards per attempt and seventh-most passing yards per game. They blitz at the seventh-highest rate while ranking tenth in pressure, but that should be no issue for Stafford. Against the blitz, he has the sixth-best passing grade and third-highest big-time throw rate. Week 7 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Najee Harris: Harris has been nearly unstartable this season. He is the RB42 in fantasy with only one game with a weekly finish higher than RB36. The thing is, Harris has played well if you put just his per-touch metrics under the microscope. Among 53 qualifying rushers, he ranks fourth in explosive run rate, 19th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 19th in yards after contact per attempt. His offensive line has not helped him at all. Among those 53 rushers, Harris has the 14th-lowest yards before contact per attempt, and he runs behind PFF’s 11th-lowest graded offensive line. The Rams offer Harris a matchup to get on track finally. Los Angeles has allowed the seventh-highest explosive run rate and the 11th-highest yards after contact per attempt while sitting at 14th in yards per carry given up to zone runs (4.21). 65.1% of Harris’s runs have been on zone play designs. Week 7 Positional Value: RB2/3

Jaylen Warren: Warren’s role in this backfield has remained consistent. He has played 40-49% of the snaps weekly, averaging 11 touches and 58 total yards. He has three top-24 running back finishes this season (RB19, RB18, RB24). Warren remains one of the most explosive backs in the NFL, ranking 15th in explosive run rate, third in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 30th in yards after contact per attempt. Among 65 qualifying backs, he ranks 27th in route run rate as the Steeler’s primary passing down back. He is ninth in Target share and second in YPRR among the same sample of backs. Los Angeles has allowed the seventh-highest explosive run rate and the 11th-highest yards after contact per attempt while sitting at 14th in yards per carry given up to zone runs (Warren 55.9% zone). Week 7 Positional Value: RB2/3

Zach Evans: While Evans is the buzz name in this backfield this week, the more we have progressed this week, I have had diminishing faith that Evans will be the primary back this week. When asked about Evans this week, all Sean McVay offered was, “Zach’s a guy that’s continuing to learn..”. That’s not exactly a ringing endorsement for the rookie back to handle a major workload this week. Evans feels like a trap play in this uncertain situation. Evans didn’t exactly explode on the scene this preseason either, with only 2.22 yards after contact per attempt and zero breakaway runs (23 carries). Unless you are incredibly desperate with nowhere else to turn at the running back position, I would sit Evans this week, but I will admit the matchup is enticing. Pittsburgh has allowed the eighth-highest missed tackle rate and the third-highest yards after contact per attempt. They have surrendered the seventh-most fantasy points per game to running backs. Week 7 Positional Value: Dart throw flex play

Darrell Henderson: The answer to the Ram’s backfield could be none of the above, but Henderson could lead the group in opportunities and snaps this week. I know that sounds crazy, but he has the most familiarity with the system, and the key cog here that will go overlooked is whoever this team trusts on passing downs is the player that will probably soak up the most work. Henderson has graded out as a plus pass protector in two of his four seasons in the NFL. Across 115 career pass-blocking snaps, he has allowed only one sack and five hurries. Henderson has never been an impressive rushing talent. In 2022, he finished with 2.6 yards after contact per attempt and an uninspiring 26.9 elusive rating. Henderson could enjoy an efficiency boost behind an offensive line that is ninth in yards before contact per attempt, facing a porous run defense. Pittsburgh has allowed the eighth-highest missed tackle rate and the third-highest yards after contact per attempt. They have surrendered the seventh-most fantasy points per game to running backs. If I’m picking one back from the backfield to roll with this week, it’s Henderson, but he’s still only a desperation flex. Week 7 Positional Value: Dart throw flex play

Wide Receivers

Diontae Johnson: Johnson will return this week. He only played 43% of the snaps in Week 1 before his hamstring failed him, so we will go back to the 2022 numbers to figure out his possible usage this week. Last year, among 81 qualifying wide receivers, Johnson was 14th in Target share (24.5%), 20th in air-yard share (32.6%), and 17th in first-read share (30.8%). If Johnson returns to a full workload, he will be a WR3 with WR2 upside based on target volume alone. Week 7 Positional Value: WR3 with WR2 upside

George Pickens: Pickens has remained a boom-or-bust player this year even after assuming the WR1 role for Pittsburgh in Johnson’s absence. Pickens was a WR1 twice (WR11, WR5) but outside the top 36 wide receivers in weekly scoring in two outings (WR38, WR65). This season, Pickens has a 23.8% Target share, a 43.4% air-yard share, and a 32.7% first-read share. I don’t expect him to keep up that pace with Johnson back. Last year, he drew only a 14.7% Target share, a 28.4% air-yard share, and an 18.6% first-read share. I expect his number to even out in the middle of these two samples with Johnson back. The Rams run zone coverage at the tenth-highest rate in the NFL (76.9%). Pickens has a 22% TPRR and 2.44 YPRR against zone this season, which has been a major improvement in his game. He could give Johnson a run for his money for the team lead in targets weekly starting in Week 7. Week 7 Positional Value: WR3

Weeks 5-6

Player Target share Air-Yard % First-Read % YPRR
Cooper Kupp 34.4 47.3 41.7 4.51
Puka Nacua 29.5 33.6 31.4 1.52

Cooper Kupp: Kupp wasted no time reminding everyone that he is still one of the best wide receivers in the game, with WR12 and WR4 finishes. Kupp has commanded a 34.4% Target share with a magical 47.3% air-yard share and 41.7% first-read share. His 4.51 YPRR is an absolutely filthy number. Kupp will run about 52% of his routes in the slot against Chandon Sullivan (75% catch rate and 139.1 passer rating). The Steelers utilize man coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL (36.1%). Against man, Kupp’s Target share is a mind-blowing 42.1%, and he has 65.5% of the team’s receiving yards. Kupp has an incredible 4.11 YPRR against man this season. Kupp will dominate again in Week 7. Week 7 Positional Value: WR1

Puka Nacua: Nacua’s usage numbers have remained immaculate despite Kupp’s return with a 29.5% Target share, a 33.6% air-yard share, and a 31.4% first-read share. Those are WR1 usage numbers on any other team. Nacua was the WR11 in fantasy in Week 5, but last week, he finally had a down game as the WR56 in fantasy despite seven targets (two red zone targets). The Ram’s passing attack runs through Kupp and Nacua, with everyone else just left to pick up the scraps. The Steelers utilize man coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL (36.1%). Against man, Nacua’s Target share has dipped to 22.2% with 1.54 YPRR. Nacua will run about 54% of his routes against Levi Wallace (59.5% catch rate and 86.3 passer rating) and Patrick Peterson (57.1% catch rate and 109.8 passer rating). Week 7 Positional Value: WR2

Tutu Atwell: With Kupp back, Atwell has only seen a 9.8% Target share and 15.3% air-yard share, but he could see his usage spike this week against the Steelers man coverage heavy scheme (fourth-highest, 36.1%). Against man, Atwell is second on the team with a 24.1% Target share and 27.8% of the team’s receiving yardage. Fire up Atwell as a flex with upside. Week 7 Positional Value: WR4/5 with WR3 upside

Tight Ends

Pat Freiermuth: Freiermuth has been ruled out (hamstring).

Tyler Higbee: Higbee has suffered much like Atwell since the return of Kupp. Over the last two weeks, he has had a 9.8% Target share (three per game) with only 19 receiving yards per game. Until we see Higbee worked back into the offense more, he’s a must-sit (if not droppable). The Steelers are not a favorable matchup for Higbee anyway. Pittsburgh has held tight ends to the fifth-fewest receiving yards and fourth-fewest fantasy points. Week 7 Positional Value: TE2 (Droppable)

JAC vs. NO | WAS vs. NYG | ATL vs. TB | DET vs. BAL | BUF vs. NE | CLE vs. IND | LV vs. CHI | ARI vs. SEA | PIT vs. LAR | LAC vs. KC | GB vs. DEN | MIA vs. PHI | SF vs. MIN

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Pace and playcalling notes

  • In Kellen Moore, we truzz as the Chargers are fourth and eighth in neutral pace and passing rate.
  • The Chiefs have remained consistently slow and pass-happy, ranking 12th-lowest in neutral pace while sitting at ninth in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert: Herbert is the QB1 in fantasy. He is 15th in passing grade, eighth in yards per attempt, and 22nd in adjusted completion rate. He has finished as a QB1 in every game this season. However, that streak could come to an end this week. The Chiefs have been pulverizing quarterbacks all season. They have given up the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game, the fourth-lowest yards per attempt, and the 11th-lowest passer rating. Pump the brakes on Herbert this week, but we have seen him rise to the occasion with QB9 finishes in his two meetings with Kansas City last season. Week 7 Positional Value: QB1

Patrick Mahomes: All Mahomes needs is Travis Kelce, will, and he’ll find a way to make magic happen. He is the QB5 in fantasy this season despite a lackluster wide receiver room to throw to. He is pulling it off not only with his arm but his legs, with the 11th-most carries per game and seventh-most rushing yards per game. Mahomes is still seventh in passing grade, 12th in yards per attempt, and fifth in passing touchdowns. He takes on a Chargers’ pass defense that has allowed the most fantasy points per game, the sixth-most passing yards, and the second-highest yards per attempt to quarterbacks. Week 7 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Austin Ekeler: Ekeler saw his first action since Week 1 last week. He played 68% of the snaps with 18 touches and 62 total yards. Among 53 qualifying backs, Ekeler ranks 32nd in explosive run rate and 11th in yards after contact per attempt. The Chiefs have allowed the eighth-highest explosive run rate and the 12th-highest yards after contact per attempt while also having the fourth-lowest stuff rate. This would seem to be a smash matchup for Ekeler, but there’s a caveat here. Kansas City has been gashed by gap runs (third-highest yards per carry allowed), but they have held zone runs in check (11th-lowest yards per carry). 56.7% of Ekeler’s runs have been on zone concepts. Ekeler’s three-down skill set in a possible shootout game trumps any efficiency concerns, though. Week 7 Positional Value: RB1

Isiah Pacheco: Pacheco is the RB16 in fantasy. Over the last three games he has played 59-63% of the snaps averaging 20.6 touches and 106.6 total yards. His pass game role has been increased this season as he already has three games with at least three receptions and 30 receiving yards. Among 53 qualified backs, Pacheco ranks 16th in explosive run rate and 12th in yards after contact per attempt. The Chargers are not an elite run defense, but this isn’t the pushover unit of previous seasons. The Bolts have kept backs at bay with the fifth-lowest explosive run rate allowed and the 14th-lowest yards per carry to gap runs (Pacheco 52.9% gap). Los Angeles also has the tenth-lowest stuff rate, so it’s not like teams can’t run on them. Week 7 Positional Value: RB1/2

Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen: Allen has turned back the clock and spit in the face of Father Time. He is the WR2 this season with a 29.5% Target share, a 33.3% air-yard share, 2.85 YPRR, and a 36.9% first-read share. He’s seventh among wide receivers in red zone targets. The Chief’s utilize man coverage at the seventh-highest rate in the NFL (33.3%). Against man, Allen’s Target share inflates to 34.9%, his YPRR rises to 3.11, and his first-read share rises to 39.2%. Allen will get peppered against his week by Herbert. Allen will run about 62% of his routes against Trent McDuffie (69.2% catch rate and 88.5 passer rating). Week 7 Positional Value: WR1

Josh Palmer: In the two games since Mike Williams was lost to injury, Palmer has played very well. I have to give him his due. He’s commanded a 24.6% Target share, a 39.3% air-yard share, and produced 2.08 YPRR. His 22.9% first-read share over that short span is second to only Allen. Palmer’s biggest concern is that he could see shadow coverage from L’Jarius Sneed. Sneed has been a shutdown cover corner this season. He followed Calvin Ridley, D.J. Moore, Garrett Wilson, and Justin Jefferson on 58-75% of their routes. None of them exceeded 40 receiving yards in his primary coverage. Palmer has played well, but he isn”t in the same area code as those other receivers. The concern for Sneed taking him out of this game is real. Week 7 Positional Value: Worrisome WR3

Quentin Johnston: Over the last two games, Johnston has not been a full-time player with a 54% route run rate and only an 8.2% Target share. He remains a stash, but the light grows dimmer daily. Week 7 Positional Value: Stash

Rashee Rice: Rice’s route run rate has jumped all over the map this season (last week: 39.1%), with only two games above 45%. Justin Watson‘s elbow injury could change that moving forward. I feel like I’m making the same case for Rice that has been made for Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore before him. The deja vu is real. Rice’s route metrics are impressive, though (lol). He has a 36% target per route run rate and 3.14 yards per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). If he doesn’t break a big play or score a touchdown, then you’re likely upset you started him. Week 7 Positional Value: Stash

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce: Last week, Kelce had a 65% route run rate, a 22% Target share, and a 49.4% air-yard share as he amassed nine grabs and 124 receiving yards. As long as Kelce has two functioning(ish) legs and is active, he’s the TE1 overall, and you are playing him. Matchups don’t matter with Kelce.

JAC vs. NO | WAS vs. NYG | ATL vs. TB | DET vs. BAL | BUF vs. NE | CLE vs. IND | LV vs. CHI | ARI vs. SEA | PIT vs. LAR | LAC vs. KC | GB vs. DEN | MIA vs. PHI | SF vs. MIN

Green Bay Packers vs. Denver Broncos

Pace and playcalling notes

  • Green Bay is a middling-paced run-balanced attack, ranking 15th in neutral pace and 17th in neutral passing rate.
  • Sean Payton has turned to ball control mode. Since Week 4, the Broncos have the fifth-slowest neutral pace and are 12th in neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Jordan Love: Love has struggled mightily as a passer this season. He has the ninth-lowest passing grade, the 11th-lowest yards per attempt, and the lowest adjusted completion rate among 32 qualifying quarterbacks. Denver offers him a spot to post another QB1-worthy stat line. Love’s biggest struggle this season has been against pressure. His splits against pressure and kept clean are massive. Among 29 qualifying quarterbacks, when pressured, he is 27th in passing grade and 26th in yards per attempt, but when he is kept clean in the pocket, he is 18th in passing grade and ninth in yards per attempt. Luckily for Love, Denver is 31st in pressure rate. Add in that Denver has allowed the highest yards per attempt, the most passing touchdowns, and the highest adjusted completion rate in the NFL, and we have a perfect recipe for Love to be a QB1 in Week 7. Week 7 Positional Value: QB1

Russell Wilson: Wilson opened the season by beating up on bad defenses with a QB3 performance against and then a QB9 outing against Chicago. Over the last two weeks, he has come crashing back to earth with QB13 and QB24 weeks facing the Jets and the Chiefs. Wilson likely continues his struggles this week against a formidable Packer’s pass defense. Among 32 qualifying quarterbacks, Wilson ranks 18th in passing grade, 17th in highly accurate throw rate, and 18th in hero throw rate. Green Bay has allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, the 11th-lowest yards per attempt, and the sixth-fewest passing touchdowns. Week 7 Positional Value: QB2

Running Backs

Aaron Jones: Coming off the bye, Jones has been limited all week in practice. That’s not exactly what I was hoping for after the time off. He practiced in a limited fashion all week before ultimately being ruled out in Week 5. My spider sense says he could sit this week. If Jones is active, fire him up as a borderline RB1 in a smash matchup. Denver has allowed the highest explosive run rate, the second-highest missed tackle rate, and the fourth-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 7 Positional Value: Borderline RB1 (if active)

A.J. Dillon: Jones has been limited in practice all week, so he’s not a sure thing to return this week. If Jones is out, expect Dillon to see a similar workload to his Week 5 usage, where he finished with 64% of the snaps played with 20 touches and 76 total yards. Dillon’s tackle-breaking metrics have continued to sag this year. He looks like a Sherman tank with water in the fuel tank. Among 53 qualifying backs, he is 43rd in missed tackles forced per attempt and 42nd in yards after contact per attempt. If he draws the start, he’s a low-end RB2 based on volume and matchup alone, but if Jones plays, he’s a low-end RB3/RB4. Week 7 Positional Value: If Jones is out RB2, If Jones is active RB3/4

Week 6

Player Snap % Rushing attempts Targets Routes RZ opportunities
Javonte Williams 35 10 0 3 0
Jaleel McLaughlin 40 7 2 7 0
Samaje Perine 17 0 2 6 0

Javonte Williams: Denver eased Williams back in with 35% of the snaps and ten touches that he turned into 52 rushing yards. This wasn’t that dissimilar from his earlier season workload. In Weeks 1-3, he played 42-45% of the snaps, averaging 14.7 touches and 60 total yards. Williams is not on the injury report this week, so we could see him creep back into the 40-50% range in snaps or even a tad higher. Among 53 qualifying backs, Williams is 13th in explosive run rate and 24th in yards after contact per attempt. Green Bay has the ninth-lowest stuff rate, the 11th-highest missed tackles allowed per attempt, and the fifth-most rushing yards allowed per game. This is a perfect matchup to get him going. Week 7 Positional Value: RB2/3

Jaleel McLaughlin: McLaughlin continues to threaten for more work, and it’s not hard to see why. Among 53 qualifying backs, he ranks second in explosive run rate, fourth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and second in yards after contact per attempt. He is lightning in a bottle. McLaughlin’s workload this week is questionable at best, but even on 10-12 touches, he could return nice flex value. Green Bay has the ninth-lowest stuff rate, the 11th-highest missed tackles allowed per attempt, and the fifth-most rushing yards allowed per game. Week 7 Positional Value: Strong Flex/RB3

Samaje Perine: Perine was shaken up toward the end of the Kansas City game, so that could have factored into the playing time, but Perine is trending toward droppable if he isn’t already there. Perine has only two games this season where he’s finished better than RB42 in fantasy. He also has four outings where he failed to surpass even 40 total yards. At the very least, Perine is a must-sit this week. Week 7 Positional Value: Must sit

Wide Receivers

Christian Watson: Christian Watson is back, baby! Let’s go! The injury training wheels were taken off in Week 5 before the bye, as he played 84% of the snaps with a 70.6% route run rate. Watson responded by leading the team with a 23.3% Target share and a 70.3% air-yard share (OH MY!). He produced 3.79 YPRR and garnered a 28.6% first-read share. Watson could be shadowed this week by Patrick Surtain (62.1% catch rate and 87.7 passer rating). Surtain has followed wide receivers on 63-70% of their routes three times this season. Surtain shadowed Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, and D.J. Moore. Moore and Hill finished the 76 and 81 receiving yards in primary coverage from Surtain, so he hasn’t exactly been a shutdown corner in 2023. Week 7 Positional Value: WR2

Romeo Doubs: Doubs is the only Packers receiver outside of Watson to finish Week 5 with higher than a 47% route run rate (Doubs 76.5%). Unfortunately for Doubs, with Watson back to full strength, his Target share was only at 13.3%, and this first-read share sat at 19.0%. The good thing for Doubs is that if Surtain is following Watson, that means Doubs will draw Damarri Mathis (75% catch rate and 143.4 passer rating), who has been torched this season by opposing receivers. Doubs has three weeks with top-20 wide receiver finishes this season (WR13, WR17, WR11) as he ranks 12th among wideouts in red zone targets. Week 7 Positional Value: WR3/4

Courtland Sutton: With Jeudy in the lineup, Sutton has a 21.2% Target share, a 34.4% air-yard share, 1.62 YPRR, and a 25.0% first-read share. In those five games, Sutton has three games as a WR3 or highest (WR33, WR13, WR22). Sutton ranks seventh in red zone targets among wideouts. Sutton will run about 75% of his routes against Jaire Alexander (77.8% catch rate and 155.8 passer rating) and Rasul Douglas (60% catch rate and 89.1 passer rating). The Packers have held perimeter wide receivers to the seventh fewest PPR points. Week 7 Positional Value: WR3/4

Jerry Jeudy: Well, Jeudy has been quite bad this year. He is the WR56 in fantasy, but even looking at expected fantasy points per game, it doesn’t look much better as he is WR51. Since his return, Jeudy has had a 19.2% Target share, a 28% air-yard share, a 28.9% first-read share, and 1.51 YPRR. He has only drawn two red zone targets and still hasn’t scored a touchdown. Jeudy has only one game with more than 60 receiving yards this season. Jeudy will run about 70% of his routes against Keisean Nixon (82.6% catch rate and 107.8 passer rating). Week 7 Positional Value: WR4

Marvin Mims: Since Week 2, Mims only has a 26.9% route run rate. We are at the point where a Sutton or Jeudy trade is needed to unlock Mims, so we wait. Mims is a must-sit and hold. Week 7 Positional Value: Stash

Tight Ends

Luke Musgrave: Musgrave’s ancillary usage metrics all scream that he will be a weekly TE1 at some point this season. In the full games he has played, he has a 72.7% route run rate, a 17.6% Target share, and 1.56 yards per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Among 34 qualifying tight ends this season, those metrics rank 11th, 10th, and 10th. Musgrave has three red zone looks and three deep targets. Denver has been a dream matchup for tight ends, allowing the most receiving yards, the second-highest yards per reception, and the most fantasy points. Week 7 Positional Value: TE1

JAC vs. NO | WAS vs. NYG | ATL vs. TB | DET vs. BAL | BUF vs. NE | CLE vs. IND | LV vs. CHI | ARI vs. SEA | PIT vs. LAR | LAC vs. KC | GB vs. DEN | MIA vs. PHI | SF vs. MIN

Miami Dolphins vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Pace and playcalling notes

  • The play volume in this game will be quite nice. Each of these teams ranks inside the top 13 in neutral pace (eighth MIA, 13th PHI). They do, however, take different approaches with their offensive designs. Miami has the third-highest neutral passing rate, while Philly ranks 11th in neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Tua Tagovailoa: Tagovailoa is having a season for the ages. He is on pace for 5,315 passing yards and 40 passing touchdowns. He ranks inside the top two in yards per attempt, passer rating, CPOE on deep attempts, and highly accurate throw rate. He is fourth in fantasy points per dropback against zone coverage (PHI 61.7% zone). Philly has been an extraordinary pass funnel this season. They have allowed the fourth-most passing touchdowns, the ninth-highest passer rating, and the sixth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. The big concern for Tagovailoa this week is whether Miami can keep him clean in the pocket. The Eagles are fourth in pressure rate. Even when Tagovailoa has been pressured, he has been excellent, ranking fifth in pressured yards per attempt, 12th in pressured passer rating, and seventh in fantasy points per dropback against pressure. Week 7 Positional Value: QB1

Jalen Hurts: Hurts is the QB3 in fantasy who is currently pacing to set new career highs in passing attempts (604) and passing yards (4,369). He continues to play at an extremely high level, ranking tenth in passing grade and yards per attempt while ranking third in big-time throw rate and eighth in adjusted completion rate. Miami has utilized zone coverage at the 12th-highest rate (75.3%). Against 34 qualifying quarterbacks, Hurts ranks 11th in yards per attempt, 14th in adjusted completion rate, and tenth in fantasy points per dropback against zone. Miami hasn’t been a pass defense to fear, allowing the 11th-highest yards per attempt, seventh-highest passer rating, and the tenth-highest adjusted completion rate. Week 7 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Raheem Mostert: Mostert has been crushing this season as the RB3 in fantasy, averaging 15.5 touches and 95.7 total yards. He ranks 16th in snap share, 15th in weighted opportunities, and seventh in red zone touches. Mostert has already amassed 11 total touchdowns (first). He has scored in five of six games. Even if Jeff Wilson makes his return this week, Mostert should retain his lead-back status. While Father Time eventually catches us all, he hasn’t been able to keep up with this South Beach speedster. Among 53 qualifying backs, Mostert ranks seventh in explosive run rate, 12th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and seventh in yards after contact per attempt. The former Eagles practice squad player faces a very tough Philly front. The Eagles have kept backs contained to the eighth-lowest explosive run rate, the lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the fifth-lowest yards per carry to zone runs (Mostert 57.3% zone). Week 7 Positional Value: RB1/2

Jeff Wilson: Wilson has practiced in full all week. I expect him to be activated this week and play. The question is, how much Wilson do we see this week in a tough matchup for the ground game? If I have Wilson on my roster, I’m sitting him this week against a Philly run defense that has allowed the eighth-lowest explosive run rate and the second-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. Week 7 Positional Value: Must sit

Week 7 Positional Value:

D’Andre Swift: Swift is the RB11 in fantasy, ranking 21st in opportunity share, seventh in weighted opportunities, and 12th in red zone touches. Swift has settled into a nice 54-63% snap role over the last four weeks, averaging 19.1 touches and 95.8 total yards. Among 53 qualifying backs, he ranks 20th in explosive run rate, 34th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 27th in yards after contact per attempt. Swift’s pass game role has been growing, with 20 targets over the past three games. Overall, he ranks ninth among backs with a 13.6% Target share. Miami’s run defense has been stout, allowing the tenth-lowest explosive run rate and the fifth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. They are only 18th in yards per carry to zone runs, though (Swift 75.6% zone). Whatever Swift loses in efficiency on the ground this week, he could make up through the air. Miami has faced the second-fewest running back targets this season, so it has flown under the radar that they are giving up the second-highest yards per reception to running backs. It would not be easy in any format to sit Swift this week. Week 7 Positional Value: RB1

Kenneth Gainwell: Gainwell is a low-end stash only. Over the last three games, he has played 38-41% of the snaps with 5.6 touches and 20.7 total yards. Week 7 Positional Value: Stash only

Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill: HIll is on a blistering pace this season to obliterate Calvin Johnson’s single season receiving yardage record. Hill is currently on pace to catch 119 balls with 2,306 receiving yards. Those are insane video game numbers. He is the WR1 in fantasy ranking ninth in Target share (28.0%), first in YPRR (5.36), and 13th in first-read share (33.8%) among 136 qualifying wide receivers. Philly has deployed man coverage at the ninth-highest rate (30.4%) this season. Against man, HIll has seen his Target share balloon to 30.6% (13th-best), his YPRR reach epic proportions (6.04), and his first-read share climb to 35.1%. Hill has a 57.1% air-yard share against man. Hill is a matchup proof top-three wide receiver weekly. Week 7 Positional Value: WR1

Jaylen Waddle: Waddle will take a sizable back seat to Hill this week against the Eagles man coverage. Against man coverage, Waddle has seen his Target share dwindle to 13.2% with an 18.5% air-yard share, 2.16 YPRR, and a 15.4% first-read share. Waddle has seen six red zone targets this season (24th among wide receivers). Week 7 Positional Value: WR2/3

A.J. Brown: Brown has turned on the afterburners in recent weeks, scorching NFL fields regularly. Brown has not finished a game with less than 127 receiving yards or eight targets since Week 2. Brown hasn’t finished lower than WR13 in his last four games. He has a 28.2% Target share, a 48.3% air-yard share, 3.18 YPRR, and 43.6% of the team’s receiving yardage. Brown also ranks third in deep targets among wideouts. Brown has three of the team’s four end zone targets against zone coverage (MIA 12th-highest zone coverage rate). Brown will run about 80% of his routes against Eli Apple (61.3% catch rate and 82.2 passer rating) and Xavien Howard (72.2% catch rate and 99.5 passer rating). Week 7 Positional Value: Matchup proof WR1

DeVonta Smith: Smith is the WR37 in fantasy, ranking ninth among wide receivers in deep targets. Sadly, though, he only has two red-zone looks all season. Smith has a 20.2% Target share, a 30.5% air-yard share, 1.50 YPRR, and a 23.2% first-read share. Against zone coverage (MIA 12th-highest zone rate), his YPRR has increased to 1.69, and his first-read share has slightly bumped up to 24.7%. Smith will run about 70% of his routes against Eli Apple (61.3% catch rate and 82.2 passer rating) and Xavien Howard (72.2% catch rate and 99.5 passer rating). Week 7 Positional Value: WR2/3

Tight Ends

Dallas Goedert: Goedert is the TE11, ranking seventh in deep targets and fifth in red zone targets among tight ends. He has a 16.9% Target share, producing 1.23 YPRR with a 23.2% first-read share (tied for second on the team with DeVonta Smith). Against zone coverage, Goedert has seen his Target share bump to 18.1% and his first read share increase to 24.7% (again tied with Smith). Miami has bled out production to tight ends, allowing the tenth-most receiving yard and the fourth-most fantasy points to slot tight ends (Goedert 56.2% slot). Week 7 Positional Value: Top-five TE

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About Author

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Derek Brown

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Derek Brown is a senior fantasy football analyst at FantasyPros.