Hello and welcome to the Week 17 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit, DFS lineup construction, betting picks, or any other fantasy football decisions. There can be a lot of noise in fantasy football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points.

• Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
• Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
• Waiver Wire Picks
• Fantasy Football Trade Tools

Each of the charts has been designed in a way that you want to target players and teams that are in the top-right quadrant of the chart as denoted by the dotted black lines, which signify the median value for the stat on either the x-axis or y-axis. You’ll notice that I’ve added a second chart to each section. This is the same chart that you’re used to seeing for each section, but looking purely at the last four weeks. As we move through the season, the more recent weeks should hold more weight so this will give you a snapshot of more recent usage and trends! Before getting to each of the charts and analyses, here are some brief descriptions of what you will find on each chart and how to interpret them.

• Team Pace and Plays: Compares a team’s average plays per game to its pace over expected, using seconds per play as a measure of pace. On the chart, the y-axis flipped to show faster-paced teams (running plays faster than expected) on top. Simply put, teams (and overall matchups) with more plays and faster pace will offer more opportunities for fantasy point-scoring.
• Team Pass Rates: Compares a team’s pass rate over expectation (PROE) to its red-zone pass rate. Here we can identify which teams are passing the most when game script isn’t a deciding factor and when they get close to the goal line.
• Running Back Usage: Compares rushing expected fantasy points per game to his receiving expected fantasy points per game, with the size of the player’s point as his snap percentage. I use expected fantasy points as a measure of one’s workload in that specific area of the game, so it can help us discern which players are getting strong rushing or receiving workloads.
• Wide Receiver & Tight End Usage: Compares player weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) to his yards per route run (YPRR), with the size of the player’s point as his routes run rate (as a percent of the team’s dropbacks). WOPR weighs both air yards share and target share to evaluate a player’s opportunity, while yards per route run is a measure of one’s efficiency with the routes (and targets) he’s given. The charts show the same information for both the wide receiver and tight end position.

Fantasy Football Trends & Takeaways

Team Pace and Plays

• The Buffalo Bills are no longer who we thought they were. In addition to boasting a -6.5% PROE over the last month, they are trending towards playing slower and slower with each passing week. Though Buffalo has used no-huddle at an 11.4% rate this season (7th in the league), that has dropped down to just 1.3% in the last four weeks. Since Joe Brady took over playcalling duties, the Bills have snapped the ball with less than 10 seconds left on the clock at a 73.3% rate, up drastically from their 56.5% rate before that. Meanwhile, New England continues to get slower as well as they haven’t recorded a neutral-script pace under 30 seconds per play in their last six games, something they did in five of their first nine games. New England’s offense has also been struggling, ranking dead last in EPA per play over the last four weeks. All of these factors lead me to betting the under in this division-rivalry rematch.
  • Action: bet under 41 total points

Team Pass Rates

• The Cleveland Browns have now returned four straight games with a PROE over 4% — that’s the Joe Flacco effect, I guess! In those four games, Flacco is averaging an absurd 43.8 pass attempts per game. The problem is that Flacco really only has eyes for two players, Amari Cooper and David Njoku, who have combined for a 52% target share over the last three games (when Cooper was fully healthy). No other Browns player is averaging more than five targets per game in those three games, which makes it extremely difficult to trust in a lineup, even as a flex option. Cleveland also has to face a great New York Jets secondary in Week 17, so Cooper and Njoku are the only Browns pass catchers I’m considering starting despite this high-volume passing attack.
  • Action: start only Amari Cooper and David Njoku as Browns pass catchers

Running Back Usage

• It’s wild that we’re at a point where Ezekiel Elliott is a league winner, but 2023 has been full of surprises. While Elliott hasn’t been efficient running the ball (his -0.43 rushing yards over expected per carry ranks 6th-worst among qualifying running backs), his workload has been near-elite with at least 17 opportunities in the three games without Rhamondre Stevenson. What also keeps me intrigued is Elliott’s usage in the passing game — in the last three games without Stevenson, Zeke has run a route on at least 65% of the team’s dropbacks. Against a Bills team that should force them into some passing situations, Elliott is a solid RB2 option for fantasy championship week.
  • Action: start Ezekiel Elliott
• Alexander Mattison missed one game due to injury and that’s all it took for Ty Chandler to become Minnesota’s feature back. Mattison returned to the lineup after his one-game absence to just two carries on four total snaps against the Lions. While Chandler’s eight carries and zero targets aren’t that inspiring, he was still given a 66% snap share, his highest in a game that Mattison played. Additionally, Chandler got Minnesota’s lone carry inside the five-yard line in Week 16. In Week 17, Minnesota could be without Jordan Addison and TJ Hockenson. They will get a Packers team that has struggled (to put it lightly) defensively over the last month, so Minnesota could lean further into the running game. I think Chandler’s potential ceiling is good enough to make him a low-end RB2 or flex option.
  • Action: start Ty Chandler

Wide Receiver Usage

• On Sunday night, Courtland Sutton left the Broncos’ game with a concussion, leaving his Week 17 status in doubt. If you’re thinking about starting Jerry Jeudy with Sutton out, I’m here to tell you to think again. While Jeudy had his highest routes-run rate (91%) since Week 11, his targets per route rate (13%) was his lowest since Week 10. He’s also earned more than five targets just twice since Week 6. The Broncos also have a strong leaning towards running the ball, which they should find success doing so against the Chargers and will limit pass volume even further.
  • Action: sit Jerry Jeudy
• The Ravens got a dominating win over the 49ers on Monday night thanks in large part to the performance of Zay Flowers, who had an elite 35% targets per route run (his second-highest of the season). Lamar Jackson was keyed in on Flowers, who earned a season-high 13 targets, which made it so that no other Ravens player had more than four targets in the game. Odell Beckham ran a route on 65% of Baltimore’s dropbacks, which was his highest since Week 9, but the targets just aren’t consistent enough for him to have me trust him in a lineup. Week 16 was also Baltimore’s second-highest PROE mark of the season, so I expect that to revert lower this upcoming week, further limiting potential volume.
  • Action: start only Zay Flowers among Ravens wide receivers

Tight End Usage

• Trey McBride may have disappointed with just six catches for 31 yards on Sunday, but there’s no reason to be starting someone else if you made it to the finals with him. McBride still ran a route on 88% of the team’s dropbacks. While he earned his lowest targets per route run since Week 11, he’s recorded at least seven targets in each of his last six games, an elite mark for a tight end. Even with a tougher matchup against the Bears, McBride’s consistent volume makes him a top-end TE1 option.
  • Action: start Trey McBride

Quick Hops

• Best of luck in your fantasy football championships!

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