It’s never too early to begin thinking about innings limits for starting pitchers. MLB teams are certainly thinking about them already. Teams spend so much money on pitchers’ arms that they need to treat them as delicately as possible. You may think that this article is too early, but consider how we’re already drafting.
Eury Perez is coming off a season where he struck out 108 batters in only 91 innings. He also had a 3.15 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP all as a 20-year-old. While the excitement is still high with an ADP of 99, it sure seems possible that it could have been higher. However, we’ve already seen the Marlins limit his innings last season. Even though he had a 2.36 ERA through 11 major league starts, the team sent him back to the minor leagues in July to limit his innings. He was recalled again in August, but you have to be aware of the possibility of it happening again when drafting him.
Below you’ll see more pitchers that could have innings limit this season for a variety of reasons.
- Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Simulator
- 2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit
- Fantasy Baseball Draft Rankings
- Fantasy Baseball Projections
Innings Limits to Monitor (2024 Fantasy Baseball)
Every Starting Pitcher for the Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers have an incredible number of starting pitcher options. For their big league team, it’s a great problem to have. The team has talked of using a six-man rotation and has plenty of options to get to the end of the season with hopefully a healthy rotation. For your fantasy team, it caps the innings of all their options. With how high some of their pitchers are going in fantasy drafts, you have to be aware of what the caps could be.
A quick list of starting pitchers in the Dodgers’ organization who could make starts at the big league level this season: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Bobby Miller, James Paxton, Emmet Sheehan, Ryan Yarbrough, Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, Michael Grove, Gavin Stone, Landon Knack and River Ryan. Okay, maybe it wasn’t a quick list. That is 14 different options that the Dodgers have to choose from. The interesting thing is that not one of them is a lock for innings.
Those with injury concerns that will limit their innings are Tyler Glasnow, James Paxton, Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw and Dustin May. Note that all the projection systems are bullish on Glasnow setting a new career high in innings pitched. Also recognize that a new career high in innings for him could still be less than 130, even though he is entering his ninth season.
The young pitchers who may have their innings limited include Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove, Gavin Stone, Landon Knack and River Ryan. Miller and Sheehan are the two that RosterResource projects as being in the starting rotation to start the season. Each of those pitchers threw over 120 innings already last season. The concern is that the Dodgers are going to want their electric arms available for the playoffs. They can do that in the middle of the season with the return of Kershaw, or by calling up some of their other minor league options.
Yamamoto is the Dodgers’ pitcher with the highest ADP at 40 overall. Based on his career in Japan, that would be a steal, as his career ERA is under two with a WHIP under one and over a strikeout per inning. While he has had a couple of seasons over 190 innings in the Nippon Professional Baseball league, it’s hard to envision that happening with the Dodgers. After all, the Dodgers have $325 million riding on his right arm over the next dozen seasons.
Ryan Pepiot (SP – TB) and Shane Baz (SP – TB)
Pegged as a breakout candidate by many analysts going into last season, Zach Eflin delivered on that promise. He set new career bests in wins, strikeouts, ERA, WHIP and innings pitched. One of this year’s popular projected breakouts is Ryan Pepiot. Much like Eflin, he is joining a Rays team that seemingly can maximize all pitcher arsenals. While the Rays may maximize Pepiot’s talent, it seems very unlikely that it will come with anywhere near the 177 innings that Eflin pitched.
Pepiot could set a new career high in professional innings pitched in a season. At this point, he has two seasons in his career where he has eclipsed 100 innings pitched in 2021 and 2022. Last year, he only pitched 64 innings as he injured his oblique at the end of spring training, which caused him to miss substantial time. It’s hard to envision a pathway for Pepiot to have more than 130 innings with the many options that the Rays should have by midseason.
One of those options is Shane Baz. He missed all of last season as he recovered from Tommy John surgery. That surgery was in the summer of 2022, so he should be ready for the start of spring training. However, that doesn’t mean that the Rays are just going to let him pitch without monitoring his innings. The most innings that Baz has had as a professional was only 92, and that was back in the 2021 season. Much like with Pepiot, a new career high in innings pitched for Baz may happen, but that will still be in the 100-innings pitched range.
Michael King was acquired by the Padres this offseason in the trade that sent Juan Soto to the New York Yankees. While he has made sporadic starts with the Yankees over the past four seasons, with San Diego he’ll be asked to be a full-time starter.
As with most relief pitchers, King’s minor league career began as a starter. Between the 2017 and 2018 seasons, he pitched 310 combined innings showing that he could handle a starter’s workload. That is a long time in the past though at this point. Since then, the most innings that he pitched were last year’s 104.
One of the differences between King and the options listed above is that the Padres don’t have the depth of pitching that the Dodgers or Rays have. If they are going to compete in a very difficult NL West, they are going to need Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove and King to deliver in their starts. To manage King’s workload, the Padres may give him some short starts and rely on their remade bullpen instead.
There was a lot of hype with Nick Lodolo going into the 2023 fantasy baseball season. It was easy to see why coming off a dazzling rookie debut. Over 103 big-league innings in 2022, Lodolo struck out 131 batters while walking 39 batters which led to a mid 3’s ERA. But 2023 would be a step back due to injury.
Most pitcher injuries are typically to the elbow or shoulder areas. Lodolo’s injury was actually to his left leg. Initially, the diagnosis was left calf tendinosis. Later, it was determined that it was a stress reaction in his left tibia which shut his season down already in early May. For the season, he ended with an ERA over six and a WHIP of 1.74. However, when you look at the game log it paints a different picture.
After his first three starts, Lodolo had a 2.12 ERA with 27 strikeouts to six walks in 17 innings. Then, in his last four starts, while the strikeout-to-walk ratio was still fine (20 strikeouts to four walks), he began giving up earned runs in droves. He surrendered 20 earned runs in only 17 innings mainly because he surrendered nine home runs. That has all the makings of a pitcher who was pitching injured.
Going into the 2024 season, Lodolo should be fully recovered from the leg injuries. It still appears that the Reds will limit his innings. His most innings pitched so far in a season are 115 which was 2022 between the major leagues and the minor leagues. While he may reach the threshold again, it’s hard to envision a scenario where the Reds ask him to pitch much more than that.
For the first time in his career, Chris Sale will be pitching in the National League in 2024. It will also be the first time that he won’t be asked to be the ace of his team in over a decade. This offseason Sale joined the Atlanta Braves to solidify the middle of their rotation with another left-handed option.
Most of the projection systems are optimistic about the innings pitched for Sale for the 2024 season. The Bat is the fewest of any of the projections, but still projects 121 innings pitched. That would be his most innings pitched since the 2019 season. Since the start of the 2020 season, Sale has only been able to muster a total of 149 innings pitched as he has dealt with a variety of injuries during that time.
The Braves are going to play the regular season as one of the favorites to win the World Series. It’s too early to know that for sure, but Braves management has to realize that a playoff run is likely. With that in mind, the Braves would be wise to save their best arms for the postseason. Sale may reach 130 innings pitched this year, but not in the regular season. It seems more probable that his regular season innings will be in the 110-inning pitched range.
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