Brian Ford | Wed, May 15th 2024, 7:06am EDT

10 Dynasty Rookie Draft Value Picks (2024 Fantasy Football)

This is not a sleepers article. This article is about finding rookie value picks in your Superflex and/or TE-premium dynasty fantasy football rookie drafts that can be found in pockets all over the draft board, including the first round. You can attain that value in several ways, especially by knowing players’ average draft position (ADP) and drafting using tiers – i.e., if you like players generally equally, taking the cheapest one while adding assets can often be advantageous.

When thinking about who is a rookie value pick, we can base that on our assessment of how well the player will produce fantasy points and how quickly he does. We must also consider what the player will be worth as a dynasty rookie draft pick asset by August or this time next year. Those two results are, of course, linked, but are not the same thing.

Dynasty Rookie Draft Value Picks

Furthermore, diversification of your dynasty portfolios is important, and taking what the market gives you on some players is a great way to mix in those assets when you might not have otherwise.

Let’s dive into where we can find dynasty rookie draft value picks after the first wave of rookie drafts has told us a story about how the market is operating. Each player’s name, position and team is followed by their FantasyPros rookie expert consensus ranking (ECR) for PPR Superflex leagues.

Early-Round Draft Values

Value picks can be found anywhere in the draft where we see the relationship between outcomes and price be advantageous to us. That includes the first round and surely includes quarterbacks in Superflex leagues.

Drake Maye (QB – NE) | ECR: 6

Drake Maye has flaws and the New England landing spot is less than ideal. This has depressed his value in some managers’ minds. He is sliding behind not only Jayden Daniels but also often J.J. McCarthy in rookie drafts. Firm player stances at quarterback can be dangerous. Given Maye’s ceiling, such stances on Daniels and McCarthy seem overconfident and misplaced. That could be an inefficiency to exploit.

Maye is very talented and has tremendous upside. As a quarterback taken early in the first round of the NFL Draft, he is part of an asset class that retains value even after a bad rookie season. He will benefit from sitting behind veteran Jacoby Brissett, who is familiar with the Kevin Stefanski-Drew Petzing system new offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt will be running in New England. Brissett can also help young wide receivers like second-year slot man DeMario Douglas, deep threat Tyquan Thornton and rookies Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker develop so Maye can walk into a better situation once he does start. There do not seem to be many outcomes in which Maye’s value decreases by this time next year.

Given that the 1.01-1.08 range represents a mega-tier of roughly equal assets, Maye is sliding toward the back of that tier. Given the bust potential of all rookie quarterbacks, trading back within that tier to take the cheapest one and scoop up extra pieces makes sense. In some cases, even trading up to the end of the tier, since the market has decided there may be a soft tier break at 1.04, could be less expensive than a couple of weeks ago.

Bo Nix (QB – DEN) | ECR: 13

If Maye’s value is tied to his high ceiling, Bo Nix’s is tied to his high floor or at least his high median outcome. His roller coaster of a college career ended at pick 12 overall in the NFL Draft in an offense for which he is well-suited. In remaking the Broncos in his image, Sean Payton got his “point guard” and “distributor” quarterback in Nix.

Largely due to the experience gained from his long college career, Nix arrives in the NFL already loaded with what rookie quarterbacks struggle with the most: Processing, sack evasion, knowing when to throw the ball away and accuracy. He will throw a good amount of high-percentage passes, is likely underrated as a deeper passer and is joined by college teammate Troy Franklin, who caught a lot of those deeper passes.

Suppose Franklin’s rookie draft ADP among players with higher draft capital reflects the market’s faith in the talent and/or situation. In that case, we might think the market would have greater faith in Nix, especially because of the value retention in a Superflex league. Even if all Nix becomes is a very solid QB3 in Superflex to use because of injuries and bye weeks, which seems likely, he is valuable to us by way of either fantasy points or trade value. We can take a shot at that outcome with a late first-round pick in a few drafts rather than only spending it on players whose positional value could be far lower.

Mid-Round Draft Values

Diversification means not having too many eggs in too few dynasty asset baskets. While mixing in shares of wide receivers with better ADPs, such as Brian Thomas, Keon Coleman, Adonai Mitchell and Xavier Legette is fine, we know these are flawed prospects who are broadly in the mold of recent fantasy misses on boundary receivers. If you are picking in the mid-second and already have shares of those players, or do not trust them, trading back and taking shots on other players while adding pieces could prove profitable. If you do so, consider targeting the players below.

Two dynamic running backs and two underdrafted wide receivers find themselves in intriguing landing spots in the late second to the early third round of most Superflex drafts.

MarShawn Lloyd (RB – GB) | ECR: 20

Marshawn Lloyd has issues with vision and ball security, but he boasts a well-rounded skill set and true explosiveness. Free agent signee Josh Jacobs‘ contract allows the team an out after this upcoming season, and his efficiency has steadily decreased. Coach Matt LaFleur has already compared Lloyd to Aaron Jones and mentioned using him in the passing game. Offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich recently affirmed the team’s desire to get him touches beyond the level we would attribute to a fantasy handcuff. He is a legitimate threat to Jacobs and the fantasy buzz around Lloyd is growing.

We know this offense likes to rotate backs, so it could just be a case of an annoying timeshare, but could Lloyd be closer to the Jones role and Jacobs closer to the A.J. Dillon role by midseason? It’s very possible and worth a late second-round pick to find out. If that does not develop, a shot at efficient touches now and the lead back for a good offense in 2025 is your likely consolation prize.

Jaylen Wright (RB – MIA) | ECR: 22

Jaylen Wright has excellent straight-line speed and underrated tackle evasion and agility. However, he went down on first contact too often and much of his success came with big holes and against light boxes, so he justifiably had his skeptics. Then Wright wound up in arguably the perfect landing spot. If there is a system that will put fast backs in advantageous positions, it is Mike McDaniel’s scheme in Miami. Additionally, Raheem Mostert turned 32 in April and has a history of injuries, and he seems likely to be gone in 2025. Smaller option De’Von Achane, while explosive and efficient in his 2023 rookie campaign, showed us concerns about his durability — and therefore touch count — could be valid.

All this adds up to at least a strong contingent upside this year, with the possibility for more and a likely path to the Mostert role next season. In the short term, with Wright consistently going in the late second and even early third round of rookie drafts, he is just camp film clips and positive coach speak away from a value spike.

Roman Wilson (WR – PIT) | ECR: 24

If you do not go the route of taking Lloyd or Wright, Roman Wilson is almost always available in this draft range. Wilson, a route technician with athleticism and strong hands, was selected with Day 2 draft capital by a team with a very good track record of drafting and developing wide receivers. That team also has a wide receiver room that, after George Pickens, includes Calvin Austin, Quez Watkins, Dez Fitzpatrick, Denzel Mims, Van Jefferson, Scotty Miller, Marquez Callaway, Duece Watts and Keilahn Harris. In other words, Wilson has a clear path to targets in somewhat the role Diontae Johnson played before being traded. Whether it is the PPR production or his trade value, you likely stand to gain from trading back to the late second round, or even early third sometimes, to grab Wilson.

Jermaine Burton (WR – CIN) | ECR: 26

Jermaine Burton is consistently available in the early third round of rookie drafts. He is probably as talented as some other outside receivers such as Adonai Mitchell and Keon Coleman, but his lower NFL Draft capital and the presence of Tee Higgins above him on the depth chart have made him available much later in rookie drafts. Burton is explosive and has good ball skills, and while he is not very strong, he is tough and physical. Burton can have an immediate impact should Higgins miss time this season, and it seems almost a guarantee that the latter will be gone in 2025. Trading back and taking a shot on a cheaper outside receiver like Burton (or fellow popular sleeper Javon Baker) when the others have legitimate on-field red flags while gaining assets in the process helps you diversify and add value.

Late-Round Draft Values

As buzzy sleepers like Kimani Vidal and Tyrone Tracy get steamed up — and there is reason to like them both; I do — Ray Davis, Bucky Irving and Audric Estime seem to be getting lost in the shuffle. They could be as good an investment or better.

Ray Davis (RB – BUF) | ECR: 28

Ray Davis has a very plausible immediate path to tougher, between-the-tackles carries — or at least short-yardage and goal-line work. Damien Harris, Leonard Fournette and Latavius Murray are gone. Ty Johnson and undrafted free agent (UDFA) rookie Frank Gore Jr. are more in the James Cook neighborhood as far as build and skill set. Darrynton Evans is a smaller back who has leaned mainly on his speed. In other words, Davis, who is also competent in pass protection and as a receiver, brings a skill set that does not overlap much with the rest of the Bills’ backfield and one that gives him access to some high-value touches. That is worth the price he is going for.

Bucky Irving (RB – TB) | ECR: 31

Tampa Bay has been looking for ways to take some touches off Rachaad White‘s plate. Ke’Shawn Vaughn is no longer on the team, 2023 rookie Sean Tucker was a non-factor and Chase Edmonds is an unimpressive option. Bucky Irving does not have the size or burst White does, but, like White, he is a very good pass-catcher. He is also arguably more agile and is very efficient with the ball in space. Irving should get some pass-catching work pretty early, and has some contingent upside should White miss time, though Edmonds would likely get first looks between the tackles in that scenario. White’s value is strongly related to volume because he is not a dynamic player. Like Tracy, Irving brings some juice to a backfield with a weak starter and little competition. That is a path to fantasy points, maybe in a Zero RB build, and spikes in trade value.

Audric Estime (RB – DEN) | ECR: 33

Audric Estime was critiqued during the pre-draft process for his lack of speed. While his 40-yard dash times at both the NFL Combine and his Pro Day were underwhelming, Pro Football Focus (PFF) data showed he had similar game speed to fellow rookie back Isaac Guerendo, who clocked a time of 4.33 seconds on his 40-yard dash at the combine. Film analysts agreed. This indicates that Estime is a fast processor on the field. When we add that to his clear physicality and competent pass protection, he seems underrated. This is likely attributed to the landing spot on a team and offense the market is down on along with the presence of fellow big backs Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine. Perine could be cut. If he is not, Estime is a good bet to overtake him sooner rather than later. That positions Estime with contingent upside behind Javonte Williams, a player who has had his share of injuries, is likely in a high-volume role this year and has a contract expiring after the season. By next year, Estime and either Jaleel McLaughlin or 2024 UDFA rookie Blake Watson could be playing the Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara roles in Payton’s offense. Buying a ticket for this ride in a few leagues is worth the price.

Davis, Irving and Estime are often drafted at or after where similarly uncertain prospects Vidal and Tracy are, so mixing in shares — including by trading back — is a good idea.

Tight Ends Not Named Brock Bowers

The narrative of the 2024 tight end rookie class has been “It’s Brock Bowers and everyone else.” While that narrative is true, it seems to be overemphasized in early rookie drafts, even in TE-premium leagues. Popular prospect Ben Sinnott sometimes slides into the third round, and Ja’Tavion Sanders is consistently available then. Other targets like Theo Johnson, Jared Wiley and Erick All can even go undrafted in four-round drafts. If you are in TE-premium leagues, it is highly advisable to acquire shares of various cheap rookie tight ends and stash them. This is sometimes called the “buckshot” approach or “spray and pray.”

Sinnott is an athletic and versatile player with second-round draft capital on an ascending offense in Washington with a rookie quarterback who will need some layups. He only has to compete with a thus far unimpressive Cole Turner and late-career Zach Ertz. Sanders’ athletic testing was below expectations, but he is a proven pass-catcher who can immediately be Carolina’s No. 1 TE and provide layup targets for Bryce Young while both develop their respective professional games.

Johnson needs some refinement but has the high-end athleticism that positively correlates to fantasy production at the position, and while Daniel Bellinger is underrated, he is not formidable competition. Wiley has drawn praise for his receiving acumen and also tested well athletically. The Chiefs’ tight end corps includes Noah Gray and Irv Smith Jr. among other players all slotted below Travis Kelce on the depth chart. Wiley’s current price for a talented, plausible successor to Kelce is very affordable. All has a history of significant injuries, but also has very good upside as a receiver and got a tantalizing landing spot in Cincinnati.

Now that the first wave of dynasty rookie drafts has given us a more precise sense of the market, we can use that information to find current pockets of value. This can benefit our fantasy teams in 2024, add trade value to our rosters and help us accrue additional assets while diversifying our portfolios. Happy hunting.

More Dynasty Rookie Draft Advice

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DBro’s Dynasty Rookie Draft Primers

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