Fantasy Football Player Notes

If we were replaying the 2019 season, Jackson would be the No. 2 pick in fantasy leagues, and it wouldn't be a reach. He was behind only Christian McCaffrey in value based drafting score. We talk all the time about regression when it comes to quarterbacks with a high touchdown rate, and Jackson is no different after posting a ridiculous 9.0 percent touchdown rate in 2019. That's going to come down. Lowering that mark to 5.0 percent (which is still above average), he would've thrown 20 touchdowns instead of the 36 that he did. However, something to help offset that is his rushing touchdown output. Based on where his carries took place last year, Jackson should've scored closer to 12 rushing touchdowns rather than the seven that he did. The downside to Jackson is that he's a bit thinner than you'd like as a mobile quarterback. While it's tough to get a clean hit on him, we have a history of mobile quarterbacks not withstanding a lot of hits. When you invest a second- or third-round pick on a quarterback, you need him on the field. If Jackson were a lock to play all 16 games, he'd be my QB1 and well worth a second-round pick. When you add in some of that risk, he's more of a third-round selection. There were nine separate occasions last year where he delivered 28-plus fantasy points. Those are week-winning performances.

The trio of tight ends in Baltimore accounted for a massive 40.2 percent target share last year, which easily led the league. Just one other team (Eagles) had their tight ends see over a 30.0 percent target share. Hayden Hurst is gone, which shifts those targets to the duo of Andrews and Boyle. While I anticipate some of them moving to the wide receivers, it's not a bad thing for Andrews supporters. I think many have forgotten just how hard it is for young tight ends to produce elite numbers, yet Andrews posted 852 yards and 10 touchdowns in his sophomore season on a team that threw the ball just 440 times. He's very good. With a slight bump in pass attempts for the team overall combined with the exit of Hurst, and we could see Andrews reach 120 targets this season. My issue with Andrews is that he's been a bit more inconsistent than the likes of Travis Kelce and George Kittle, so it takes a bit of projecting to see him reach that tier. Andrews played just 46 snaps per game in 2019, while those two averaged 60 snaps. For me, Andrews is in the tier directly behind them alongside Zach Ertz. If you can get him in the late-fourth or early-fifth round, I'm good with that. If you take him earlier, you're have to project 120 targets.

Not many expecting Ingram to finish as an RB1 with Lamar Jackson under center, thinking he'd lose some of the goal-line carries to the mobile quarteback. Despite the fact that Ingram had more than 15 carries just twice all season, he finished as the No. 8 running back. We aren't banking on that happening again, especially when the Ravens drafted JK Dobbins in the second round of the NFL Draft. Ingram is going to be 31 years old this year, while Dobbins and Justice Hill have young, fresh legs. We could see Ingram lose a few carries a game, but provided he's healthy, we should still expect him to lead this timeshare and be a borderline RB2.

He was coming off foot surgery last year, and it was the reason I was avoiding him in drafts. Same calendar year surgery on foot/ankle never goes well for pass catchers. Still, Brown went out there and played well the first two weeks, racking up 253 yards and two touchdowns over the first two weeks. Unfortunately, the injuries to his lower body added up as the year went on and his performances reflected that, as he topped 50 yards just once over the remaining 12 games he played. Offensive coordinator Greg Roman has said Brown's "had a great offseason." Brown's schedule is great to start the year, too. In Weeks 2-5, he'll play against the Texans, Chiefs, Washington, and Bengals. The upside to Brown is a DeSean Jackson-like presence of someone who won't be a consistent WR1, but rather one you play as a WR2/3 who gives you "boom" potential on a weekly basis. However, if the Ravens don't up their pass attempts, it'll be hard figuring out when those booms will come. Relying on him as more than a WR3 this year would probably be a mistake, because there's not much evidence suggesting they'll throw the ball a lot more than they did in 2019.

If you're looking for a handcuff to Mark Ingram, Dobbins is your guy. The Ravens apparently had a first-round grade on him in the draft, so selecting him in the second round was a "no brainer," according to them. He's likely to get 8-10 touches per game even with Ingram in the lineup, as the Ravens are not going to give any one running back more than 15-16 touches per game. That limits the upside of Dobbins, as does Lamar Jackson stealing plenty of goal-line touches.

To the extent there's a sure thing in terms of fantasy kickers, it's Tucker, who has finished as a top-12 kicker in every year of his career. The Ravens offense was better than ever last year which limited his opportunities more than usual, but he remains as accurate as ever. Perhaps a 1B to Harrison Butker's 1A this year, Tucker should be one of the first kickers off the board.

Have the Ravens written him off as a bust? After drafting him in the third round last year, they had him playing behind guys like Seth Roberts and Willie Snead. He played just 27.2 snaps per game and saw just 22 targets his rookie year despite being healthy for all 16 games. He did score three touchdowns on those targets, and outside of Mark Andrews, he's probably the dark horse to lead the team in receiving touchdowns at 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds. Still, he needs to be on the field for that to happen. My guess would be that he starts on the perimeter opposite Marquise Brown with Roberts gone, so there's some sort of opportunity here. The issue is that they targeted wide receivers just 172 times last year. Even a 15 percent increase (which is a lot) would bring them up to 200 targets. Without an injury, it's going to be difficult for Boykin to see more than 50-60 targets, even as a starter.

Edwards could probably be a star if he got a full workload in Baltimore. He's averaged 5.3 yards per carry in his career and has lost just one fumble in two seasons. He would have been a high-end handcuff for Mark Ingram this year, but the addition of J.K. Dobbins essentially relegates Edwards to irrelevancy. He'd almost certainly need multiple injuries to have much fantasy value, and despite the high upside in that unlikely scenario, he's not worth wasting a roster spot on.

It was a shame we didn't get to see Hill in a bigger role last year, but we all felt that Mark Ingram was a year closer to the end, and Gus Edwards was going to be a free agent. Well... Ingram is still closer to retirement, but Edwards was retained by the team, and then they went and drafted JK Dobbins in the second round, eliminating the shot of Hill getting a bigger role. He's going to be stuck in the 4-6 touches per game role unless there are multiple injuries.