Fantasy Football Player Notes

Last year, Zay Flowers posted career-best marks across the board with 86 receptions, 1,211 receiving yards, and a WR12 finish in fantasy points per game. It was amazing to see for a player who also ranked eighth in target share (27.7%), 11th in receiving yards per game (71.2), seventh in yards per route run (2.61), and tenth in first-read share (33.3%, per Fantasy Points Data). While Flowers also saw 19 deep targets last year, the big concern with him is his touchdown upside. Flowers has never had more than five receiving touchdowns in any season, and with only 11 red zone targets last year, it's tough to project a huge spike in that this season, but there could be hope with the arrival of offensive coordinator Declan Doyle. I'm not projecting that Doyle heads into this season drawing up more usage for Flowers near the goal line, but it can't possibly get any worse than it has been previously. Flowers is a strong WR2 with WR1 upside again this year.

Yes, I'm lower than consensus with Lamar Jackson this season, but I fully acknowledge his upside. Prior to 2025, in his previous six seasons, he logged three inside as the QB3 or higher in fantasy points per game (QB3, QB1, QB1), but last season's production was frightening. Last season, in Weeks 9-18, he was the QB20 in fantasy points per game. During that stretch, among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 33rd in highly accurate throw rate, 26th in catchable target rate, and 31st in hero throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Jackson is also coming off a career-worst 26.8 rushing yards per game with the second-lowest yards per carry of his career. Can we chalk a lot of that up to his injuries last year? Yes, possibly, but even if he bounces back in this department, the question is how much. Jackson will be operating behind a reworked offensive line with a new offensive playcaller and with a questionable receiving depth chart behind Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews. Could everything gel this season and he be the QB1 in fantasy points per game again? Yep, that's possible, but where he's being drafted is baking in that as a near certainty when it's not. I won't discourage anyone for taking the swing on Jackson in any draft, but I won't be in 2026 unless he slips quite far past his current ADP.

Last year was another impressive year for Derrick Henry. He didn't show any signs of slowing down with 307 rushing attempts, 1.595 rushing yards, 16 total touchdowns, and an RB8 finish in fantasy points per game. Last year, among 49 qualifying backs, Henry ranked 16th in yards after contact per attempt and seventh in explosive run rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Henry won't contribute much in the passing game, but that's a given at this point. It doesn't crush his overall production, but it isn't there to help add to his weekly floor. Henry had five games last year as RB25 or lower in weekly fantasy scoring. I still want to invest in Henry as an RB1 again in 2026. If Lamar Jackson can bounce back, Henry could inch back closer to his 2024 production (RB4 in fantasy points per game). He's at worst a low-end RB1 with top-five upside.

Mark Andrews is coming off easily his worst season in the NFL as the TE23 in fantasy points per game. Last year, Baltimore limited his playing time, as he was 22nd in route share (62.9%, per Fantasy Points Data). I'm expecting that to rebound in 2026 with Isaiah Likely gone, but we still have to see it materialize. Last year, among 59 qualifying tight ends, Andrews was ninth in first read share, but his yards per route run (41st) and first downs per route run (27th) were nothing to write home about. He's worth taking a flier on late in drafts as your tight end two with the hopes that he can rebound with more playing time in a new offensive system and give us a throwback season in 2026.

Betting on Baltimore as a top-12 defense in 2026 for fantasy is investing a lot of faith in Jesse Minter to get this unit back on track. It's definitely possible, as the talent is still there. Nanamdi Madubuike, Trey Hendrickson, Kyle Hamilton, Nate Wiggins, Malaki Starks, and Marlon Humphrey bring the star power for that dream to be a reality in 2026.

The Ravens' Tyler Loop finished 12th in fantasy scoring last season as a rookie, averaging 8.5 fantasy points a game. Loop hit 30-of-34 field goals last season. He missed only one FG attempt from inside 50 yards but was only 1-of-4 from 50 yards or longer. Loop hit 44-of-46 extra points. The Ravens tied for 14th in FG attempts last year. With better health for star QB Lamar Jackson, who missed four games last season and appeared to be less than 100% in others, the Ravens could present Loop with more scoring opportunities in his second NFL season.

2026 4th-rounder Elijah Sarratt may have been overshadowed by Baltimore's earlier selection of Ja'Kobi Lane, but the former Indiana receiver offers an intriguing pathway to Year 1 relevance. Sarratt enters a crowded, run-heavy offense, yet his strong production profile, early breakout age, and red-zone skill set could help him carve out a role quickly if Mark Andrews continues declining. The Ravens already have their No.1 WR in Zay Flowers, so expectations should remain tempered, but Sarratt's ability to win contested catches and earn targets gives him sleeper appeal. Among Baltimore's rookie receivers, he might be the better value bet relative to cost.