Fantasy Football Player Notes

Dobbins is extremely talented, there's no doubting that. However, if you think he's a breakout candidate to finish as a top-five running back, you're betting against the odds. Among the running backs who finished top-10 last year, just two of them finished there while seeing fewer than 39 targets. Those two running backs were Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb, who averaged 5.4 and 5.6 yards per carry, numbers no one can actually project to hit. They also scored 17 and 12 touchdowns on the ground, propping their numbers up. Dobbins saw just 24 targets last year, a number that's unlikely to move much considering he's in the same offense with the same quarterback, only with more weapons around him. If Dobbins can rush for over 5.0 yards per carry (he did last year) and score double-digit rushing touchdowns (again, hard to project), he's going to finish as a top-10 running back, but not top-five due to the lack of work in the passing game. He's best-suited as your RB2 who has RB1 in his range of outcomes.

It's kind of crazy how much Andrews gets disrespected by the fantasy community. He's tallied 2,105 yards and 20 touchdowns over his first three seasons in the league. That's the ninth-most yardage by a tight end in the post-merger era during his first three seasons. You know what other tight ends are on that list? George Kittle, Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, and Kellen Winslow. Sure, the Ravens went out and added some pass catchers, but Andrews is the go-to option for Lamar Jackson over the middle of the field and in the red zone. Health has been the biggest obstacle for Andrews, but if he's able to stay on the field, he should be the No. 4 tight end off the board.

Do you know how many times Jackson has finished with fewer than 16.5 fantasy points since taking the starting job in 2019? Four. He's posted 21.3 or more fantasy points in 22-of-30 games during that stretch, which is flat-out ridiculous. Since becoming the starter two years ago, he's posted QB1-type numbers in 76.7 percent of his games. The only other quarterback who's posted higher than 64.8 percent in their career is Patrick Mahomes, who's sitting at 69.6 percent. On top of that, Jackson now got better weapons to throw to, yet some are ranking him as the fourth-best quarterback in fantasy? Not me. Jackson should be in the conversation to be the first quarterback off the board.

Since being drafted by the Ravens, Brown was miscast in the go-to receiver role for them, something that was righted this offseason when the team drafted Rashod Bateman, who makes a great complement to Brown. While it was a great move for the Ravens from a football perspective, it will impact Brown's target total. He likely won't see the 100 targets he saw in 2020, though his targets should be a bit more impactful. Expect him to be somewhat of a boom-or-bust receiver, making him a WR4-type option.

Is it possible that Edwards is another version of Raheem Mostert? Someone who's never heavily used, but one who kills it with every opportunity he gets. He's averaged at least 5.0 yards per carry in each of his three seasons with the Ravens. Now that Mark Ingram is gone, it's possible we see Edwards top his 144-carry career mark from 2020, but the real issue is that he's obsolete in the passing game, totaling just 23 targets over 43 games. He's never caught more than two passes in a game. If J.K. Dobbins were to miss time, Edwards would be a solid RB2 in fantasy, though he'd be a bit more touchdown-dependent than most in that range.

I was leading the charge for Bateman during the draft process, saying he reminded me of Keenan Allen. After landing with the Ravens, I'm not so excited about him anymore. The Ravens have targeted their wide receivers just 393 times over the last two seasons, a number that four teams hit in 2020 alone. The passing will likely increase in 2021 after the acquisitions of a few pass catchers, but they're not going to be changing their entire philosophy. We need targets in order for Bateman to break out, and it's tough to project him getting even 100 of them, making him a bench hopeful in fantasy.

Tucker remains the best kicker in the game from a real-life standpoint, hitting nearly 90% of his field-goal attempts and all but one of his extra-point attempts last year. The issue from a fantasy standpoint is that the Ravens' efficiency in the red zone with Lamar Jackson under center has led to fewer field goal attempts. After averaging 39 field-goal attempts per season from 2015-2018, Tucker has attempted just 29 field goals in each of the past two seasons. His increase in extra-point attempts (he's averaged 56 extra-point attempts the last two seasons after averaging just 33 the four prior seasons) just isn't enough to make up the difference. Still, even if Tucker is down from his peak, he remains a locked-in top-10 kicker and the safest option on the board. He should be one of the first few taken at the position, even if his upside isn't quite as high anymore.

There was a time where people were excited about what Boykin might bring to the table. That time has passed, as he's now entering his third season with just 32 receptions under his belt. He's actually performed solid on a per-target basis, but his opportunity is gone with the additions of Rashod Bateman, Sammy Watkins, and Tylan Wallace to the wide receiver depth chart. He wasn't fantasy relevant without them, so he sure as heck won't be with them.