Fantasy Football Player Notes

Based on the actual opportunity Chubb got in 2020, he should've finished as the RB24 in half PPR formats. Instead, Chubb scored 54.5 more fantasy points than the average running back would've and finished as the RB9 despite playing in just 12 games. The new offense proved to be very beneficial to the run game, though Kareem Hunt's presence does limit Chubb's true ceiling, which should be top-five, but unless he starts to get more targets, he'll remain in the mid-to-low-end RB1 range.

Despite Nick Chubb getting hurt and missing 4.5 games, Hunt failed to meet expectations in 2020. Sure, he finished as a top-10 running back at season's end, but if you were to ask his managers, they'd tell you he was a flex-type option. He finished as an RB2 or better in just 56.3 percent of games in PPR formats, which was slightly behind Miles Sanders and slightly ahead of Ronald Jones. His value was arguably better with Chubb on the field last year, so maybe it's a matter of keeping him fresh? Whatever the case, Hunt should be a strong RB3/flex option who has 20-touch upside should Chubb miss time.

Let's do an exercise... How many targets per game do you anticipate Beckham getting this year? I'm going with an extremely low number and say he averages 6.5 targets per game. That sounds more than reasonable, right? Beckham had 7.0 targets per game during the 2020 season before getting hurt and that includes a three-target game against the Steelers. The Browns were also throwing the ball a lot less early in the year as Baker Mayfield was still getting grasp on Kevin Stefanski's playbook. If Beckham gets 6.5 targets per game, that'd put him on pace for 104 targets, which again, is what I'd consider low. There were just 32 receivers in the NFL who hit that number last year, with 24 of them (75 percent) finishing as top-24 receivers and just two finishing worse than WR38. You mean to tell me with Beckham's talent, he can't produce top-24 numbers? There's health risks for sure, but there's also top-five wide receiver upside.

Here's a fun fact: Landry is one of just seven wide receivers who've finished as a top-24 fantasy wide receiver in five of the last six years. The others are Julio Jones, Mike Evans, DeAndre Hopkins, Davante Adams, Brandin Cooks, and Amari Cooper. However, the issue is that Landry isn't the "sexy" pick that everyone wants because he's never going to be the reason you win a championship. With Odell Beckham due back to the lineup, it's only going to cap his upside even more, and therefore supress his ADP. You need balance on your fantasy roster and Landry can provide stability that not many have. Just keep your weekly expectations in check.

We watched Mayfield take major strides in Kevin Stefanski's offense as the year went on in 2020, but it's important to remember that he didn't throw the ball more than 33 times in 12-of-16 games. They want to play good defense and run the ball as much as possible, which makes Mayfield much more efficient. While he's a great target in 2QB leagues, there's rarely a week-to-week ceiling to his projection.

Despite Odell Beckham missing most of the 2020 season, Hooper wound up with just 70 targets on his new team. Sure, Hooper himself missed three games, but we also watched rookie Harrison Bryant making a name for himself, and will likely get more targets in 2021. With tight ends, you need someone who'll consistently get 5-6 targets per game, or you're streaming the position. With Beckham back and Bryant ascending in his career, you're not going to get a consistent 5-6 targets per game out of Hooper, making him a streamer.