Fantasy Football Player Notes

McCaffrey remained "THE DUDE" at running back in fantasy last year. He was the RB1 in fantasy, finishing as an RB1 in 81% of his games and as a top 24 RB in every game he played. McCaffrey averaged 21.2 touches and 126.5 total yards per game while ranking second in carries, fourth in targets, and first in red zone touches among running backs. There's no reason to expect a falloff entering 2024. His deeper efficiency metrics all scream that he remains in the prime of his career after ranking fourth in explosive run rate and 10th in yards after contact last season (per Fantasy Points Data).

Brandon Aiyuk operated as the more traditional WR1 in the 49ers offense in 2023, leading the team with nearly 1,500 receiving yards and 8 TDs in 19 games played despite a mediocre role in the red zone. He led the 49ers offense with a 24% target share and 39% air yards share (15th). 20th overall in weighted opportunity. Aiyuk averaged 12.4 fantasy points per game (WR19) finishing with career-highs across the board in his fourth season. Entering a contract year at age 26, we still may not have seen the best to come from Aiyuk fresh off a second consecutive top-15 WR finish in half-PPR. His efficiency numbers are off the charts as a top-5 finisher in yards per route run in 2023.

Deebo Samuel was electric during the fantasy football season, finishing as the fantasy WR12 overall in 15 games played averaging 14.2 points per game as the WR9.
The dominant YAC receiver ranked second on the team in target share (22%) and second in total TDs (12) with his dual usage as both a rusher/receiver. Samuel finished the year with the most total red-zone touches among all WRs. As we project Samuel into 2024, two things need to be strongly considered. First, his injury history is based on how physical of a player he is. Second, he may experience impending TD regression given he scored more fantasy points above expectation than any other WR from Weeks 1-17. He was the WR26 in expected points per game (10.9). His rushing production is difficult to rely on year-to-year, and Brandon Aiyuk is continuing his ascent into the top-tier WR conversation entering a contract year.

If there were any doubts about Brock Purdy's QB bona fides following his partial-season success in 2022, he dispelled them with an excellent performance in 2023. Purdy led all NFL quarterbacks in yards per attempt (9.6), passer rating (113.0) and QBR (72.8). He also led the league in touchdown rate (7.0%), although naysayers might suggest that such a high TD rate is destined for regression. Purdy has the benefit of an ideal ecosystem, with Kyle Shanahan as his playcaller and Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle as his pass catchers. After finishing QB7 in fantasy scoring in 2023, Purdy is destined to be a top-12 fantasy quarterback in 2024 drafts.

If you value week-to-week consistency, George Kittle might not be the tight end for you. But if you're an adrenaline-fueled roller-coaster enthusiast, Kittle is your guy. In 2023, Kittle had seven games in which he produced 16 or more PPR points and six games in which he produced 6 or fewer PPR points. The drawback with Kittle is that he doesn't see as many targets as other top tight ends. Over the last three seasons, Travis Kelce has averaged 8.5 targets a game, Mark Andrews has averaged 7.8, and Kittle has averaged 6.0. Kittle's well-rounded skill set can actually be a hindrance, since the 49ers like to leverage his exceptional blocking ability. But Kittle is quite a pass catcher, too. He's topped 1,000 receiving yards in three of the last six years and has averaged 9.8 yards per target for his career -- almost a full yard better than Kelce's career average of 8.9 yards per target. The TE5 in fantasy scoring last season, Kittle will again be a good bet for a top-five positional fantasy finish in 2024. Just realize it might not always be a smooth trip.

Elijah Mitchell retains his backup/handcuff role in San Francisco for Christian McCaffrey. Mitchell struggled to stay healthy in the NFL, which continued in 2023. He was limited to 11 games played and 81 touches. Mitchell is a viable handcuff option in the later rounds of drafts again this season, but don't be surprised if Jordan Mason overtakes him as McCaffrey's backup. Mason was impressive with his limited work last season, with a 7.5% explosive run rate, a 23% missed tackle rate, and 2.95 yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Mitchell is a player to still get some exposure to in the later rounds of best ball and redraft formats.