Fantasy Football Player Notes

I remember getting Waller in the fifth or sixth round last year, and though it never felt amazing while doing it, the end result worked out. Why didn't it feel amazing? He's part of the Raiders offense, that lacks potency. The targets were what we were chasing, and the targets are what we got. But when you're paying TE2 prices in the second round, you not only need the targets, you need touchdowns. While Waller scored nine of them last year, he scored just three of them in 2019 in the same offense. There's a reason people pay up for Travis Kelce, and while I like Waller, I just don't have that guaranteed Kelce-like production.

I remember last year when Jacobs was going as a late first-round pick, though I wanted nothing to do with him at that price due to his lack of involvement in the passing game the previous season. Nothing changed except they added more pass catchers. He did get a slight bump in targets (45), though nothing you could rely upon every week. What's changed this offseason? The Raiders decided to pay Kenyan Drake a good chunk of money to come in and share the workload with Jacobs, forcing his fantasy stock to plummet. Drake was essentially the same running back as Jacobs last year, though we've seen him produce in the passing game before. Did the addition of Drake drop Jacobs' price too far, or is this a backfield to simply avoid if possible? I believe he's fallen enough to consider a value as a low-end RB2 who should see be in line for 250-plus touches. The expectations were out of control last year, but if you can get him in the fifth round this year, I'm buying.

The marriage between the Raiders and Drake is an odd one, as Drake was somewhat of a Josh Jacobs doppleganger last year. They both finished between 3.9 and 4.0 yards per carry, both scored double-digit rushing touchdowns, and both were extremely limited in the passing game. The Raiders have continually given guys like DeAndre Washington, Jalen Richard, and Devontae Booker work alongside Jacobs over the last two years, so Drake is going to get mixed in quite heavily, and my guess would be that the passing game is where he gets most of it. You may not remember, but Drake was considered a solid third-down back early in his career with the Dolphins, and has two seasons with 50-plus catches on his NFL resume. It's tough to see him eating into Jacobs' carry totals a whole lot, especially after the way he looked with the Cardinals in 2020, but he should offer low-upside flex value due to his work in the passing game.

You'd think that when a team spends the No. 12 overall pick on a wide receiver, they'd actually find ways to use him, right? That didn't happen with Ruggs. There wasn't a game in 2020 where he saw more than five targets or caught more than three receptions. We did see the Raiders move on from Nelson Agholor, but he was quickly replaced by John Brown. It's no secret that Brown has struggled to stay healthy, which could be the door Ruggs needs to get more targets. He shouldn't need an injury to get targets, but if this Raiders coaching staff told us anything last year, it's that they don't know how to best utilize Ruggs.

While on the field, Brown has delivered for fantasy managers. The issue is that's been a struggle staying on the field. He's missed 14 full games over the last four seasons and portions of others. Still, he produced a 1,000-yard season in 2019, and finished with 70-plus yards in five of the nine games he did play in 2020. Now going to Las Vegas where there is no clear-cut No. 1 wide receiver, Brown could have a Nelson Agholor-like 2021 season where he essentially goes undrafted, but winds up being a borderline WR3 most weeks, but he needs to stay healthy in order for that to happen.

The article I write every year titled, "Boom, Bust, and Everything In Between," highlights the both the consistency a player offers, as well as his upside. Carr has no upside. Over the last two years under Jon Gruden, Carr has played 32 games. In those games, he's delivered QB1-type performances just 14 times (43.8 percent), and a "boom" performance just one time (3.1 percent). I'd rather take shots on the rookie quarterbacks who might not start out of the gate, as Carr certainly wouldn't be your QB1.

The Raiders were high on Edwards during last year's draft process, though injuries derailed his progress. Once Nelson Agholor left, it felt like Edwards might be starting in 2WR sets, though they quickly replaced Agholor with the veteran John Brown. Still, Edwards is the only notable receiver on the team who's over six-feet tall and can play that go-to role they seek outside of Darren Waller. We've also heard Derek Carr say that Edwards reminded him of his former teammate in college, Davante Adams, which is never a bad thing.

Carlson had an outstanding 2020 season, converting 94.3% of his field-goal attempts and missing just two of his 47 extra-point attempts. Kickers are notoriously fickle, and Carlson is evidence of that, as he's converted 94.1%, 73.1%, and 94.3% of his field-goal attempts since joining the Raiders. In other words, it's worth drafting Carlson in a standard-sized league, but he's far from a guarantee in terms of his success.