Fantasy Football Player Notes

CeeDee Lamb had a "down" year last season as the WR11 in fantasy points per game, but that finish doesn't really tell the entire story of Lamb's season. In Week 3, he played only seven snaps, and in Week 18, he played only 45.5% of the snaps. If we remove those two games, he averaged 16.6 PPR points per game, which would have him as the WR9 in fantasy points per game last season. In that 12-game sample, Lamb drew a 24.8% target share with 89.4 receiving yards per game, 2.51 yards per route run, a 32.3% first-read share, and 0.098 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Overall, those marks would have ranked 13th, third, ninth, 12th, and 26th among all receivers with at least 200 routes last season. Lamb remains a locked-in WR1 with a stellar quarterback in his prime and George Pickens alongside him to keep defenses honest.

Last season was a monster breakout season for George Pickens as the WR5 in fantasy points per game. His splits with CeeDee Lamb out and active were dramatic, but that doesn't mean that Pickens wasn't awesome in both realms. With Lamb in the huddle, Pickens averaged 15 fantasy points per game versus 24.2 with him out. Across that entire season with Lamb, that would have made Pickens the WR11 in fantasy points per game, and without him, he would have been the WR1 in fantasy points per game. With Lamb, Pickens had a 20.2% target share with 2.24 yards per route run, 77.1 receiving yards per game, a 25.2% first-read share, and 0.116 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Without Lamb, those numbers jumped to a 23.6% target share, 3.14 yards per route run, 106.8 receiving yards per game, a 34.1% first-read share, and 0.154 first downs per route run. No matter how you slice it, Pickens was elite last year, and he should be a WR1 again this season in a pass-first Dallas offense.

Last year, Javonte Williams was a massive surprise in fantasy, to everyone, including me. I was very bullish about his 2025 outlook, but I was hoping at best for a volume-driven RB2 residing in an explosive offense. Well, Williams crushed even my expectations as the RB11 in fantasy points per game, finishing with a career high 1,201 rushing yards and 13 total touchdowns. Among 49 qualifying backs, he ranked 16th in explosive run rate and third in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). His season was also a tale of two halves as he faded some down the back half of the year. In Weeks 1-8, he averaged 18.5 touches, 90.7 total yards, and scored nine total touchdowns as the RB8 in fantasy points per game. In Weeks 9-17, he averaged 17.4 touches, 76.5 total yards, and scored only four total touchdowns as the RB25 in fantasy points per game. Much of his fantasy stock drop was related to the fall in touchdown production, which can be simple variance. His deeper analytics back up that his play didn't fall off on a per-touch efficency standpoint. In Weeks 1-8, he had a 4.8% explosive run rate with an 11% missed tackle rate and 3.52 yards after contact per attempt. That yards after contact per attempt mark is otherworldly. In Weeks 8-17, he posted a 5.5% explosive run rate with a 13% missed tackle rate and 2.33 yards after contact per attempt. He improved his marks down the stretch in two of those three categories. If Williams can post production as he did over the first half of the 2025 season for an entire year, he is a locked-in top ten back with top-five upside. At his floor, he looks like a low-end RB1 or top 15 fantasy back.

Last year, Dak Prescott directed an offense that was 13th in neutral passing rate and ninth in neutral pace en route to a QB7 finish (Weeks 1-17) in fantasy points per game. Among 45 qualifying passers, Prescott was tenth in yards per attempt, eighth in highly accurate throw rate, and 13th in hero throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). With CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Jake Ferguson, and Javonte Williams all still in the fold, I don't see a reason to expect Dallas or Prescott to slow down this season. Prescott had only a 5% passing touchdown rate last year, so there's still some meat on the bone for Prescott to be even better this season for an offense that was fifth in points per game and red zone scoring attempts per game (16th in red zone touchdown percentage). Prescott is a locked-in QB1 that could be a top-five option if they can put more touchdowns in the end zone in 2026.

Last year, Jake Ferguson managed his second TE10 finish in fantasy points per game among tight ends in the last three years. Last year, among 54 qualifying tight ends, Ferguson was 16th in target share (16%), 20th in receiving yards per game (35.3), 43rd in yards per route run (1.26), 18th in first-read share (17.6%), and 38th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). What fueled his season was red zone targets (second among tight ends behind only Trey McBride) and touchdowns (tied for third-best). Ferguson isn't likely to continue with that high-end touchdown production. If that slips, he's a mid-range TE2. I'm avoiding him in most drafts.

Ryan Flournoy stepped up in a big way last year as the Dallas Cowboys' No. 3 WR, posting two 100-yard games when CeeDee Lamb missed time. The third-year WR finished 31st in yards per route run (1.82, 16th in this rank over his last five games) and 13th in 1st downs per route run, showcasing his efficiency. "Flo" might not have much standalone value when everybody on Dallas is healthy, but there's clearly upside appeal that he can deliver when called upon if Lamb or George Pickens misses time in 2026. The rare WR upside handcuff.

Brandon Aubrey was the K4 in fantasy points per game last year, despite ranking 19th in field goal percentage made. He was third in field goal attempts and fifth in extra point attempts. He'll have plenty of kicking opportunities in 2026 with the high-powered Dallas offense putting him in position plenty. If Aubrey can bump up his field goal % a few points this season, he could be the top fantasy kicker in 2026.

Jaydon Blue was the preseason/training camp hype darling last season. That amounted to only five games of NFL action for him in 2025 and only a throwaway game in Week 18, where he saw more than 15 snaps. Blue could be the RB2 on the Dallas depth chart this season behind Javonte Williams, but I don't see him as a threat to Williams' workload. Last year, Blue only generated a 2.6% explosive run rate, an 11% missed tackle rate, and 1.58 yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). None of those numbers are impressive, but if we want to take the glass half-full approach, it was from a 38-carry sample. Blue is on the low-end of the handcuff tier with plenty of options standing out above him in the later rounds.

The Dallas Cowboys could be another worst to (near) first defensive story in 2026. Last year, they were DST26 in fantasy points per game, but this offseason they kept adding talent to the defensive side of the ball. Caleb Downs, Rashan Gary, Malachi Lawrence, Jaishawn Barham, and Jalen Thompson could help transform this defense into a nasty unit. Yes, their secondary, namely their starting corners (Cobie Durant, DaRon Bland, and possibly Shavon Revel), has to prove they are up to the task, but the talent is there. We just have to see it manifest on the field.