Fantasy Football Player Notes

Last year, Barkley finished the season as the RB1 in fantasy points per game, finishing with 378 touches, 2,283 total yards, and 15 total touchdowns. This season, we have to have the volume conversation and the worries about that for Barkley's outlook for 2025. It's a similar conversation that we had with Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, and Josh Jacobs before him. Is it a concern? Yep. Is it so damning that it should Barkley outside the top 3-5 running backs in preseason rankings? No. My bigger worry is Barkley's quietly meh tackle-breaking metrics last year. Among 46 qualifying backs, he had the fourth-best explosive run rate, but he was also only 28th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 35th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). The big thing that helped Barkley was Philly's awesome offensive line. Among those 46 backs, Barkley had the highest yards before contact per attempt (3.55). Barkley was chewing up almost four yards per carry before he faced the opposition. That helped him a ton, but it will likely help him again in 2025, as Philly will once again have one of the league's best offensive lines. Barkley remains a top 5 back in 2025 despite some of my concerns.

A.J. Brown finished last year as the WR10 in points per game (14.1) and WR18 overall having missed 3.5 games with injuries. AJB was the only WR to command over 50% of his team's total air yards ranking 1st in the NFL with a 51% air yards share. He also finished second with a 30% target share. His 46% top 12 weekly finisher rate was the second highest among all WRs to only Mike Evans. He had 5 100-yard games - tied for the most among all WRs through 17 games. The 28-year-old is still an elite WR, and he will benefit greatly if the Eagles' combination of ground game and defense experiences regression in 2025.

Only Lamar Jackson scored more fantasy points on a higher rate per dropback than Jalen Hurts. The Super Bowl MVP finished the season averaging over 22 points per game as the QB5. His strong postseason is a reminder that Hurts is an elite fantasy commodity and should be drafted as such with a great supporting cast returning. The Eagles QB has rushed for 13-plus TDs in three straight seasons. In the tush push, we trust.
And if a combination of Saquon Barkley and the Eagles defense take a step back in any way, Hurts would become a major fantasy winner after leading the NFL's most run-heavy offense.

DeVonta Smith's 2024 season was a tale of two roles - thriving when others were hurt, but fading when the offense was at full strength. He posted career lows in receptions, yards, and targets but salvaged value with a career-high 8 TDs, finishing as the WR30 overall and WR23 in points per game (13 games). However, in eight games with both A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert active, Smith averaged just 8.3 fantasy points (WR63). When one missed time, he jumped to 14.7 points per game (WR8).

Dallas Goedert finished as the overall TE27 in 2024 (10 games). But the Eagles tight end was effective when healthy, tied for the fourth highest top 12 finisher rate at 56%.
Including the postseason, Goedert was TE12 in points per game (8.6), and TE15 in expected fantasy points per game.
But as is always the case with Goedert, he will likely remain in that awkward low-end TE1 conversation as he has been throughout his career. His half-PPR finishes since 2024: 15, 11, 10, 21 (11 games), 10, 21 and 27 (10 games). Just once has he scored at least five TDs.
His high-end production is almost exclusively tied to when either A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith misses time.
Dating back to 2023, Goedert has gone UNDER 4.5 receptions in 10 of his last 15 games (64%) with his two receiver teammates healthy. He Went UNDER in all but two games this season alongside a healthy Brown and Smith (both against the division-rival Washington Commanders).