Fantasy Football Player Notes
2021 PPR Draft Rankings
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14.
Calvin Ridley
WR - (vs . NO)
Ridley finished as the No. 4 wide receiver with Julio Jones on the team, and that was while missing one full game. Just how much better can he be with Jones out of town? Some may worry about Ridley becoming "the guy" in the offense and seeing all the top cornerbacks, but we've already witnessed that in the games Jones missed. In the eight games Ridley has played without Jones, he's averaged 11.1 targets, 7.3 receptions, 107.0 yards, and 0.4 touchdowns, adding up to 20.1 PPR points per game. He should be a lock for 140-plus targets in 2021, making him a safe WR1.
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59.
Mike Davis
RB - (vs . NO)
My guess is that analysts are worried about the Falcons adding a free agent running back because even my RB24 ranking feels a bit low for a back who should have no issue getting 15-plus touches per game. That would amount to 240-plus touches on the season. There have been 144 running backs who've hit that mark over the last 10 years and none have finished worse than RB28 (his current ECR). In fact, just 10 of those running backs (6.9 percent) have finished worse than RB20. If the Falcons don't add anyone of significance, I'll be moving him up even more.
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63.
Kyle Pitts
TE - (vs . NO)
He should be a very good player for a very long time, but we've seen highly-athletic tight ends have trouble out of the gate before. In fact, rookie tight ends in general have trouble producing. I want to ask you a question: Since 1998, how many tight ends do you think have topped 627 yards in their rookie season? Two of them. Both of those tight ends saw 115-plus targets, a number Pitts isn't likely to see with Arthur Smith as the new head coach. It helps that Julio Jones has left town, but don't forget that ultra-athletic Jonnu Smith saw just 65 targets in Smith's offense just last year, and he wasn't a rookie.
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118.
Matt Ryan
QB - (vs . NO)
We are finally going to see what Ryan looks like without Julio Jones. That doesn't sound appealing, does it? There's actually been 42 games in Ryan's career he's played without Jones. In those games, he's averaged 43.5 fewer yards, 0.13 fewer touchdowns, and 0.07 more interceptions, which may not sound like a lot, but it all adds up to 2.9 fewer fantasy points per game, and it's not as if Ryan was an elite fantasy starter with Jones. On top of that, Ryan has a new head coach, and one whose offenses have ranked 30th and 31st in pass attempts over the last two years. Ryan is going to be a streamer in 2021, so don't draft him as your every-week option.
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155.
Russell Gage
WR - (vs . NO)
In case you may have missed it, Dirk Koetter is no longer calling plays for the Falcons. The Falcons ran 3WR sets 61 percent of the time last year, which allowed Gage to get on the field more often. Arthur Smith's offense in Tennessee last year ran 3WR sets just 38 percent of the time, the second-lowest mark in football. That obviously presents a problem for Gage, as does the arrival of Kyle Pitts, who'll be utilized as a receiver at times. Some may wonder if the loss of Julio Jones opens things up for him. Yes, it will likely net him more targets, but targets on the perimeter haven't been the same for Gage, as he works best from the slot. The Falcons could very well start Tajae Sharpe over him in 2WR sets.
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181.
Younghoe Koo
K - (vs . NO)
Koo scored the most fantasy points per game of any kicker, and would have been the tops overall at the position had he not missed a game because of a COVID-19 situation. Koo missed just two field goals all year, and was a perfect 8-for-8 from 50 yards or more. He'll again play in a dome in Atlanta, but with new head coach Arthur Smith and an offense that will be slower and less explosive without Julio Jones, it's far from a sure thing that he'll see 39 field-goal attempts again. Nevertheless, the indoor environment and Koo's success from long range makes him a top-five option at the kicker position.
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206.
Hayden Hurst
TE - (vs . NO)
Hurst is also a very good football player who's going to be on the field quite a bit, as Arthur Smith's offense used more 12 personnel (two tight ends) than any other team in the NFL last year. It's why Jonnu Smith was capped at 65 targets while Anthony Firkser saw 53 of his own. I'm not saying that'll be the split between these two, but Hurst is going to get more targets than some expect, limiting Kyle Pitts' true target ceiling.
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275.
Javian Hawkins
RB - (vs . NO)
Everyone who scouted this year's class of running backs knew that Hawkins wouldn't be a workhorse running back anywhere, but he was a shifty back who might be a decent timeshare back in the right offense. Landing with Arthur Smith on the Falcons depth chart may have been his best shot at relevance, as the Falcons have almost no depth behind Mike Davis. I wouldn't expect more than 5-8 touches without injury, but he's a name worth monitoring if Davis were to miss time.
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320.
Atlanta Falcons
DST - (vs . NO)
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349.
Olamide Zaccheaus
WR - (vs . NO)
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367.
Qadree Ollison
RB - (vs . NO)
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380.
Cordarrelle Patterson
WR,RB - (vs . NO)
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483.
Frank Darby
WR - (vs . NO)
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510.
Tajae Sharpe
WR - (vs . NO)
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555.
Keith Smith
RB - (vs . NO)
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566.
Jaeden Graham
TE - (vs . NO)
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575.
Caleb Huntley
RB - (vs . NO)
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576.
Christian Blake
WR - (vs . NO)
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