Fantasy Football Player Notes

Kenneth Walker III stood as the RB8 from Weeks 6-17 after Rashaad Penny was placed on IR with a season-ending injury. The rookie was the RB9 in points per game. If you remove the two games he missed due to injury (Weeks 13/14) he averaged 16.4 fantasy points per game, which would have placed him as the RB8 in points per game. I was out on Walker early on during the draft process, but his early injuries throughout the preseason eventually made him a draft-day steal. We all knew that Rashaad Penny was never going to be "the guy" for the long run based on his injury track record and that Walker would likely take over RB1 duties as an uber-talented second-round pick. He did just that and got absolutely FED after returning from a late-season ankle injury. Walker was either consistently playing 70 percent-plus snaps or carrying the ball 23-plus times. And at times, we even saw Walker earn a large number of targets while leading the backfield in routes run. Needless to say, he's got "the" fantasy RB1 overall upside in 2023.

Metcalf has seen his fantasy production decline in three straight seasons after opening his first two seasons as the WR10 and WR20 in fantasy points per game, he found himself sitting at WR24 after the 2022 season. Metcalf's finish was fueled by three massive games in which he finished with at least 127 receiving yards as the WR7 or higher in weekly scoring. He was a rollercoaster wide receiver who also had six weeks as a WR55 or lower in weekly scoring. Metcalf's overall metrics in 2022 still put him in the WR2 bucket when projecting forward to 2023. He was 18th in target share (25.5%), tenth in air yard share (36.3%), and 34th in yards per route run. Metcalf was also 12th in deep target and second in red zone targets among receivers.

Tyler Lockett kept trucking along in his age-30 season last year, finishing with another stellar stat line. He was the WR16 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 22.8% target share (26th) and 30.5% air yard share (24th). Lockett showed little signs of slowing down, ranking 25th in PFF receiving grade and 24th in yards per route run (minimum 50 targets per PFF). He was also second in open rate behind only Diontae Johnson (per ESPN analytics). Lockett should have at least one more WR2 season left in the tank for 2023.

In his first two seasons in the league, Geno Smith threw 25 TD passes and 34 interceptions for the Jets, earning a reputation for being a second-round draft bust. Smith waited seven years to get another crack at being a full-time starter and thrived in that role with the Seahawks, throwing for 4,282 yards and 30 touchdowns, leading the NFL in completion percentage (69.8%) and winning the Comeback Player of the Year award. Smith finished QB5 in fantasy scoring in 2022, and though it wouldn't be wise to bet on a repeat, a low-end QB1 or high-end QB2 finish is a reasonable expectation.

Noah Fant's first season in Seattle resulted in the lowest yardage total (486) of his four-year career, as he had to share TE snaps and targets with Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson. Fant is still only 25 and is one of the more athletic tight ends in the league, but that has yet to translate into a top-10 fantasy finish at the position. He's had two top-12 finishes in half-point PPR formats, however, and the combination of youth and athleticism gives him plausible fantasy upside in the later rounds of drafts.