Fantasy Football Player Notes

Well, if you had worries about Josh Jacobs following up his nearly 400-touch season in 2022 with a dud last year, your fears were validated. Jacobs was limited to 13 games played (quad strain in Week 13) and looked like someone sucked out his tackle-breaking ability with a straw when he was active. Jacobs wasn't the same guy who, in 2022, ranked 18th in yards per touch, 13th in yards created per touch, and second in evaded tackles. Last season, Jacobs had the 12th-highest stuff rate while also crawling in at 37th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 44th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). He enters the Green Bay Packers' depth chart as the clear and unquestioned RB1 with Aaron Jones gone and A.J. Dillon unlikely to return. Jacobs could be this season's Rachaad White. A back who has an elite role while producing mediocre tackle-breaking stats en route to an RB1 season.

Jordan Love's first full season as an NFL starter raised hopes that he can be one of the better quarterbacks in the league for years to come. After an uneven start to his 2023 season, Love caught fire. Over his first nine starts, Love was averaging 223.2 passing yards per game, with 14 TD passes, 10 interceptions, a 58.7% completion rate and an average of 6.7 yards per attempt. Over his last eight starts of the 2023 regular season, Love averaged 268.8 passing yards per game, with 18 TD passes, one interception, a 70.3% completion percentage and 7.7 yards per attempt. He then went out and dissected the Cowboys in a wild-card game, completing 16-of-21 passes for 272 yards and three TDs. Love adds some value as a runner (247 rushing yards and four TD runs in 2023), and he has a gaggle of good young pass catchers. The future is bright for the Packers' heir apparent at quarterback.

I loved Jayden Reed coming out as a prospect and his rookie campaign makes me excited for what the future holds. He didn't always play a full-time role as the team's primary slot WR - sub 60% route participation - but he was always targeted heavily with a 25% target rate per route run. He also led all Packers WRs in fantasy points per game at 10.6 - good for WR31 status this past season. He averaged just under 2 yards per route run with ten total touchdowns scored.

Christian Watson's sophomore season was completely derailed by hamstring injuries. He missed the first three weeks of the season entirely and struggled to put together any consistent production until his last three games in the regular season when he hurt his hamstring again. Scored four TDs, while averaging 17.1 points per game. Watson has a high ceiling when healthy, but it cannot be realized until he solves his hamstring woes. He averaged 10.6 expected fantasy points per game.

Doubs followed up on decent rookie campaign with an improved second season. He was a consistent presence in the Packers' passing game, recording 69 receptions on 105 targets for 908 yards.
Doubs found the end zone 9 times, proving to be a valuable red zone target. Over 19 games, he averaged 9.4 points per game (WR47), making him a solid WR4 in fantasy leagues.
He benefitted greatly from TDs and injuries to other primary Packers pass-catchers. Worth noting that he also failed to take full advantage of the vast opportunity in the offense, scoring fewer than his expected output (11.1 per game).

Rangy and athletic, Luke Musgrave has the tools to become one of the better pass-catching tight ends in the league. A second-round draft pick out of Oregon State, Musgrave produced modest rookie-year numbers: 34 catches for 352 yards and one touchdown. But Musgrave missed six games with a lacerated kidney and was averaging a respectable 7.3 PPR fantasy points per game before he got hurt. Musgrave gets to play with QB Jordan Love, a rising star. One concern, however, is that the Packers spent a third-round draft pick on another tight end last year, Tucker Kraft, who also had some impressive flashes as a rookie. Musgrave profiles as a midrange TE2 for 2024 fantasy drafts, but he could come on fast.

The Packers have brought back A.J. Dillon to back up Josh Jacobs. Sadly, Dillon could see a reduced role in 2024 if Jacobs can bounce back and stay healthy. Dillon has declined to a lowly change-of-pace grinder. Last year, he was only 48th in yards per touch, 51st in breakaway run rate, and 54th in juke rate. He had four games last year in which he played at least 60% of the snaps; only once did he surpass 80 total yards, and he finished outside the top 30 running backs twice in weekly scoring (RB33, RB69). Dillon is a low-end handcuff in 2024.