Fantasy Football Player Notes
2021 PPR Draft Rankings
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6.
Davante Adams
WR - (at DET)
If you're planning on taking a wide receiver in the first round, you'd better make sure he's going to perform without question. Adams is that player, as he's performed as a WR1 in 22 of his last 41 games (53.7 percent), which is historically good, and it's a three-year sample size. During that time, he's scored fewer than 11.1 PPR points just four times, and once was due to leaving with an injury. As long as Aaron Rodgers is with the Packers, Adams will be a can't-miss WR1.
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10.
Aaron Jones
RB - (at DET)
I do an article every year highlighting which players performed better than expected based on where their touches took place, as well as how many carries/targets they receive. Aaron Jones has finished No. 7, No. 4, No. 4, and No. 16 over the last four years on that list, which highlights just how good he is. During that time, he's scored 143.4 more fantasy points than the average running back would've. Him and Alvin Kamara are much more similar than most realize. You take proven production at the top of drafts, and Jones has proven it time-and-time again. If Aaron Rodgers doesn't ever show up to the Packers, he does lose a bit of his touchdown upside, though.
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72.
Aaron Rodgers
QB - (at DET)
Don't go out of your way to snag him in early drafts. Even if Rodgers does play for the Packers, his touchdown rate was 9.1 percent in 2020. If we dial that number back to Rodgers' career mark of 6.3 percent, which is still elite, he would've finished as the QB10 instead of the QB2 that he did. He doesn't offer mobility anymore and his offense isn't what we'd describe as "pass heavy." Even if we knew he was playing this year, QB8 should be the price.
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103.
Robert Tonyan
TE - (at DET)
Based on how many targets Tonyan saw in 2020, as well as where they took place, he was expected to score 89.4 half PPR points, not the 150.6 points he did. The only other tight end who scored 26-plus points over their expected output was Travis Kelce. Unless you think he's as talented as Kelce, he's regressing in a big way. Fun fact: There was no other tight end who finished better than the TE22 with fewer than 60 targets last year. Even if Aaron Rodgers returns to the Packers, Tonyan needs to get more targets, or he's in trouble.
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123.
AJ Dillon
RB - (at DET)
We've watched Jamaal Williams get 226 carries and 80 targets in 28 games under Matt LaFleur, and he wasn't someone this regime drafted in the second round. That amounts to 10.9 touches per game, which is enough for most running backs to be considered a flex-type start. The issue with Dillon is that he's not likely going to be involved in the passing game, as Aaron Jones is a far superior receiver, and the Packers do throw quite a bit on the goal-line when Aaron Rodgers is under center. Dillon is essentially someone who's a touchdown-dependent flex option most weeks, but offers legitimate RB1 upside if Jones were to miss any time.
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197.
Allen Lazard
WR - (at DET)
When the Packers drafted Amari Rodgers, who has a lot of Randall Cobb to his game, Lazard's projection became unclear. He was the Packers primary slot receiver last year, playing 53 percent of his snaps in the slot. So, it's either they move Marquez Valdes-Scantling to the bench and put Lazard in his place, or all three of them rotate on the field, which is certainly not ideal for fantasy purposes. Lazard had his shot at a breakout, but unfortunately, it didn't happen.
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225.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
WR - (at DET)
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227.
Randall Cobb
WR - (at DET)
Now that Cobb is back in Green Bay with Aaron Rodgers, he's back on the fantasy radar. Knowing Rodgers specifically requested for the Packers to get Cobb back, it tells you he's getting opportunity right out of the gate, though it's worth noting he's never played in Matt LaFleur's offense. We shouldn't go overboard, though. The last three seasons Cobb was in Green Bay, he averaged 6.4 targets, 4.4 receptions, 44.5 yards, and 0.27 touchdowns per game, which extrapolate to 70 receptions, 712 yards, and four touchdowns over a full 16-game season. My guess would be that Cobb is a solid bye-week filler who'll offer a solid floor.
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237.
Green Bay Packers
DST - (at DET)
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249.
Mason Crosby
K - (at DET)
Crosby had just 16 field-goal attempts, easily the least among any kicker that played a full season. But he also had 63 extra-point attempts, the most among kickers. In essence, Crosby was a victim of Aaron Rodgers' dominance once the Packers got near the end zone. There should be at least some natural regression to the mean this year (he had averaged 31 field-goal attempts in his 13 other seasons), and given that Crosby converted all of his field-goal tries, there's no reason to expect a decline. He's a borderline started in 12-team leagues, but ignore the low volume from last year.
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264.
Amari Rodgers
WR - (at DET)
Like most Packers skill-position players, we're awaiting word on Aaron Rodgers before fully committing to our rankings. If there's a Packers wide receiver in recent memory who Rodgers resembles, it's Randall Cobb, who didn't become a favorite of Aaron Rodgers immediately. It was year two of Cobb's career where he truly broke out, which makes sense given the fact that Rodgers is a very timing-based quarterback who needs to develop rapport with his receivers. Without time together in camp, this connection is not likely to happen in 2021.
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391.
Kylin Hill
RB - (at DET)
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404.
Jordan Love
QB - (at DET)
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440.
Devin Funchess
WR - (at DET)
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452.
Equanimeous St. Brown
WR - (at DET)
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463.
Jace Sternberger
TE - (at DET)
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525.
Josiah Deguara
TE - (at DET)
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