Fantasy Football Player Notes

Gibbs is so good that it almost doesn't matter that he shares work with David Montgomery. In his second NFL season, Gibbs rolled up 1,929 yards and a league-high 20 touchdowns. He was a monster in the fantasy playoffs, scoring 25.9, 23.4 and 24.3 half-point PPR fantasy points in Weeks 15-17. (Montgomery was out in Weeks 16-17.) And it's not like Gibbs was a slacker in the fantasy regular season. He averaged 16.9 half-point PPR fantasy points a game through Week 14. There was only one game all season in which Gibbs failed to score double digit points, and he just barely missed that week with 9.4 points.

St. Brown has finished WR3 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring in each of the last two years, but he slipped from 17.0 fantasy points per game in 2023 to 15.2 FPPG in 2024, even though he scored a career-high 12 touchdowns last year and also had a career-best catch rate of 81.6%. That's because he averaged 10.3 targets per game in 2023 but only 8.3 targets per game in 2024. The emergence of Jameson Williams last season was among the reasons for St. Brown's target slippage. St. Brown is still one of the more stable fantasy investments you can make, but the ceiling might not be quite as high as it was a couple of years ago.

Jameson Williams had a nice little third-year breakout for the Lions in 2024, finishing with 58-1,001-7 in 15 games. The former first-round draft pick oozes big-play potential, but it's going to be a bumpy ride, because Jamo isn't a high-volume guy. He averaged 6.1 targets per game last year. The departure of the Lions 2024 offensive coordinator, Ben Johnson, could lead to an overall offensive downturn in Detroit, and it's unlikely that Jared Goff's career-high 6.9% TD rate from last year will stick. Williams is certainly worth your attention, but don't overpay.

David Montgomery could be hard-pressed to turn a profit on his low-end RB2 ADP. He shares work with Jahmyr Gibbs, one of the most talented RBs in the league. Montgomery has averaged 16.8 and 15.8 touches a game in Gibbs' first two seasons. I'll bet the under on 15.8 touches a game for Montgomery in 2025, as I expect an uptick in Gibbs' usage. We could also see a dip in Montgomery's TD total. He's scored 13 and 12 touchdowns the last two years, as the Lions ranked first and fifth in scoring those two seasons. If the Lions scale back Montgomery's usage to give Gibbs more snaps, or if the Detroit offense has hiccups after losing offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to the Bears, Monty's TD total could slip. He's a quality running back, but I see Montgomery as more of an RB3 than an RB2.

After a sensational rookie year in which he finished with 86-889-10 and was the TE1 in fantasy scoring, Sam LaPorta had a slight dip in production in 2024, with 60-726-7. LaPorta actually improved year over year in yards per catch (12.1) and yards per target (8.7) last season, but after averaging 7.1 targets per game in 2023, he averaged only 5.2 targets per game in 2024. The emergence of WR Jameson Williams for the Lions could keep LaPorta's target volume from returning to 2023 levels, and the departure of playcaller Ben Johnson for the Bears' head coaching job is a concern. Still, the 24-year-old LaPorta is an attractive TE target in 2025 fantasy drafts.

Jared Goff hit career highs in passing yardage (4,629) and TD passes (37) despite a three-year low in pass attempts (539). Goff was ruthlessly efficient, completing 72.4% of his throws and averaging 8.6 yards per attempt - second-best in the league among qualifying QBs in both categories. That helped Goff finish QB6 in overall fantasy scoring and QB7 in fantasy points per game (19.7). But regression could be coming for Goff. He dramatically outkicked his expected fantasy points per game (16.8), and the departure of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson could put a dent in Detroit's offensive production. It's best to think of Goff as a midrange QB2 rather than the midrange QB1 he was in 2024.

Despite losing Aaron Glenn in the offseason, the Lions should repeat as a top-12 DST in 2025. Last year, they were decimated by injuries, but they still finished as the DST10 and tenth in turnovers. If Aidan Hutchinson comes back fully healthy, the pass rush should be fine, and the addition of D.J. Reed will make a sizable impact in the secondary.

Last year, Bates ranked as the K10 in fantasy points per game. He was tenth in field goal percentage. He was only 22nd in field goals attempted. If the Lions convert fewer of their red zone opportunities into touchdowns this season, Bates should have more field goal opportunities in 2025 while still residing in one of the league's best offenses (Bates was first in extra point attempts).

TeSlaa was one of the most surprising picks of the entire NFL Draft, both in relation to his draft capital (round three) and the amount Detroit gave up to trade up for him (three third-round picks). The Lions needed to upgrade their WR3 spot. I just don't know if the highly athletic big slot (68.3% slot in college) in TeSlaa was the right answer. In his two seasons at Arkansas, he never had more than 532 receiving yards. He finished with a disappointing 5.0 yards after the catch per reception, 16.4% target per route run rate, and 1.45 yards per route run (per PFF). He has played quite well this preseason and could crack the starting line for Detroit early on, so he's worth a final round pick in deeper leagues as a cheap investment in one of the league's best offenses.