Fantasy Football Player Notes

Amon-Ra St. Brown delivered another elite season in 2024, finishing as the WR3 in both total and per-game scoring while leading the NFL in red-zone receptions. However, he did outperform his expected fantasy output (14.6 expected points per game, WR18), and his target share dipped to 23% over the final seven games as Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta gained steam. With Ben Johnson gone and increased competition for targets, there's reason to be cautious about repeating a top-5 finish - but St. Brown's talent and chemistry with Jared Goff keep his floor securely in WR1 territory.

Gibbs was awesome last year as the RB2 in fantasy points per game. The loss of David Montgomery for the final three weeks of the season helped him, but it's not like Giggs wasn't awesome before then. In Weeks 1-15, with David Montgomery in the lineup, Gibbs was the RB4 in fantasy points per game (18.9), averaging 16.1 touches and 103 total yards. In Weeks 16-18 (without Montgomery), Gibbs went bonkers with 32.6 fantasy points per game as he decimated opponents with 25.6 touches and 162.4 total yards per game. I'm not trying to detract from his season, but it helped. In Weeks 1-15, Gibbs still didn't hold the goal line or red zone role on the ground. During that stretch, Montgomery had 25 rushing attempts inside the five-yard line compared to 18 for Gibbs (per Fantasy Points Data). Gibbs will be efficient with whatever workload he's allotted after he ranked first in explosive run rate, fifth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and third in yards per route run. He's a top-three back, no matter how ya slice it.

I was against Sam LaPorta as the TE1 in 2024 and I felt justified by the results. The Lions tight end finished 17 weeks as the TE7 and the TE8 overall in points per game (9.3). His expected fantasy points per game ranked outside the top 12 TEs (9.5) as he wasn't the focal point in the offense many of his backers projected him to be. The lesson to be learned here? Don't draft a tight end as the TE1 if they aren't even the No. 1 on target on their own team.
LaPorta did finish the season on a high note in the second half as he benefitted from the absences of Jameson Williams and David Montgomery. From Week 8 through the divisional round, LaPorta's production was back to his rookie year - north of 11 points per game.
The third-year tight end's fantasy ceiling remains capped in a crowded Lions offense while others stay healthy, and the loss of OC Ben Johnson is also a concern. However, his draft price is much more palatable than in 2024.

Montgomery remained the Lions' early down hammer and preferred goal-line option last year when healthy. Before he was sidelined in the back half of the 2024 season with a knee injury (Weeks 1-14), he was the RB11 in fantasy points per game, averaging 16.3 touches per game and 83.1 total yards. Last year, he ranked 17th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 25th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). When healthy, he dominated the inside the ten-yard line work with 33 carries to Jahmyr Gibbs' 16. It's wonderful to be the goal-line king in an offense that led the NFL in points per game and red zone scoring opportunities per game last year. While Ben Johnson's departure will have an impact on Detroit, this offense should still sit somewhere in the top 5-10 scoring offenses in the NFL. Montgomery is best viewed as a solid RB2 with obvious RB1 upside if he continues to spike touchdowns at a ridiculous rate.

Jameson Williams finally broke out in 2024, finishing as the WR19 in total points (WR20 per game) with over 1,000 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns in 15 games. Despite competing for targets in a crowded Lions offense, he shined with elite efficiency - ranking 3rd in YAC per reception - and delivered three top-6 weekly finishes. From Week 10 on (post-suspension), Williams was the WR10, averaging nearly 14 fantasy points per game while commanding a 21% target share, nearly matching Amon-Ra St. Brown down the stretch. New OC John Morton has already dubbed 2025 a "breakout year" for Jamo - and if the offense shifts away from being so Sun God-centric, Williams' ceiling could grow even higher.

The Lions QB finished 2024 as the QB7 in points per game (19.4) and QB6 overall. 3rd in passing yards per game.
But Jared Goff hit his stride as injuries derailed the Lions' defense. From Week 11 onward, Goff averaged north of 25 points per game. Weeks 1-10 with a healthier defense? Fewer than 16.5 points per game.
That's just one red flag the Detroit QB has to face in 2025. The loss of OC Ben Johnson figures to be a challenge. Goff was just the QB18 in expected fantasy points per game, with virtually zero rushing to supplement his passing production. Among top-8 finishers last season, Goff posted the highest bust rate at 31%.