Fantasy Football Player Notes

Tyreek Hill showed no decline with the move from Kansas City to South Beach. Hill was the WR3 in fantasy points per game as he accumulated five weeks with 140 or more receiving yards. He led the league in deep targets while scoring nine total touchdowns (fourth). He amassed a ridiculous 31.6% target share (second-best) while ranking first in yards per route run. If the Dolphins scheme him up more targets in the red zone next season (40th among wide receivers), he could finish as the WR1 overall.

Jaylen Waddle enjoyed an explosive sophomore season as the underneath complement to Tyreek Hill in the Dolphins' high-flying aerial attack. Waddle was the WR12 in fantasy, ranking tenth in YAC, seventh in receiving yards, and 11th in total touchdowns. Waddle was also fourth in yards per route run and third in fantasy points per target. He's an ascending alpha wide receiver who could easily lead the Dolphins in receiving in 2023 if Tyreek Hill shows any signs of slowing down.

Your willingness to draft Tua Tagovailoa in 2023 will likely depend on your tolerance for risk. Tua proved himself as a passer in 2022, leading all quarterbacks in passer rating (105.5), yards per attempt (8.9) and touchdown percentage (6.3%). But Tua has to be considered a concussion risk after a season in which he twice missed games due to brain injuries. He was knocked unconscious against the Bengals in Week 4 and didn't return until Week 7. He was also placed in the concussion protocol after a Week 16 game against the Packers and missed Miami's final two games. Were it not for concussion concerns. Tua would be drafted as a top-10 quarterback as a talented young passer in an explosive Dolphins offense that features two terrific WRs in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. But with the possibility that another concussion could put Tua out of action indefinitely, it seems more sensible to regard Tua as a high-end QB2.

Jeff Wilson joined the Miami squad in Week 9 and immediately took on a sizable role. Wilson averaged 10 carries for 49 yards and nearly 0.4 TDs per game from Weeks 9 through 18. Raheem Mostert averaged an eerily similar workload with ten carries for 55 yards and 0.25 TDs per game. The two both missed one game entirely over this stretch, but posted an almost identical fantasy point-per-game output at ten points per game (RB32/33) with Wilson getting the slight lean in terms of expected points based on usage. Wilson out-targeted Mostert 23 to 20. However, Mostert was the superior back on a per-touch basis. The journeyman running back was superior in yards after contact per attempt (4.01 versus 2.33) and caught 18 of his 20 targets. Wilson only converted 12 of his 23 targets into receptions.

The team opted to bring back Mostert on a two-year deal ($5.6MM, $2.2MM guaranteed) and also re-sign Wilson to a 2-year deal worth up to $8.2 million ($2.65MM guaranteed). Considering the contracts and difference in age, I much prefer Wilson as my preferred Dolphins running back to target.

Raheem Mostert signed with the Dolphins in 2022, reuniting with former 49ers coach Mike McDaniel in South Beach. The soon-to-be 31-year-old was projected to be the back up for big free agent acquisition, Chase Edmonds. However, Edmonds fell out of favor extremely quickly and Mostert took over the starting job in Week 2. From that point until Week 8, Mostert averaged nearly ten half-points (RB21), 13.7 rushing attempts, and 62 rushing yards per game. The team quickly moved on from Edmonds before the trade deadline, replacing his spot on the roster with another ex-49ers running back, Jeff Wilson Jr.

Wilson joined the squad in Week 9 and immediately took on a sizable role. Wilson averaged 10 carries for 49 yards and nearly 0.4 TDs per game from Weeks 9 through 18. Mostert averaged an eerily similar workload with ten carries for 55 yards and 0.25 TDs per game. The two both missed one game entirely over this stretch, but posted an almost identical fantasy point-per-game output at ten points per game (RB32/33) with Wilson getting the slight lean in terms of expected points based on usage. Wilson out-targeted Mostert 23 to 20. However, Mostert was the superior back on a per-touch basis. The journeyman running back was superior in yards after contact per attempt (4.01 versus 2.33) and caught 18 of his 20 targets. Wilson only converted 12 of his 23 targets into receptions.

The team opted to bring back Mostert on a two-year deal ($5.6MM, $2.2MM guaranteed) and also re-sign Wilson to a 2-year deal worth up to $8.2 million ($2.65MM guaranteed).