Fantasy Football Player Notes

Trey McBride was a league-winning pick last year as the TE1 in fantasy points per game (the closest tight end was 3.9 fantasy points per game behind McBride). He was a volume monster in what was a pass-happy Arizona offense. With Jacoby Brissett under center (Weeks 6-18) last year, Arizona was first in neutral passing rate and second in snaps while trailing by seven or more points (per Fantasy Points Data). The Cardinals were throwing a ton while playing catch-up weekly. McBride ran 156 more routes last year than any other tight end. This fact and McBride's talent fueled plenty of fantasy teams to championships last season. Among 59 qualifying tight ends, McBride was first in target share (25.4%), receiving yards per game (72.9), red zone targets (32), and first-read share (33.8%). Among the same sample size of tight ends, McBride was also tenth in yards per route run and 15th in first downs per route run. Arizona will likely be trailing in many games this season again, so we should expect Arizona to be chucking the ball again. In Mike LaFleur's two seasons with the Jets as offensive coordinator, he ranked ninth and fourth in negative script passing rate. McBride could repeat this season as the TE1 overall.

Well, it happened. Jeremiyah Love went top five in the NFL Draft to the Arizona Cardinals, who already have Tyler Allgeier and James Conner on the depth chart. With that type of draft capital investment, I think Love will be Arizona's lead back in 2026, but he could have his workload eaten into by Allgeier and/or Conner. Love's talent isn't in question. Over the last two years in college, he ranked inside the top 15 backs in each season in yards after contact per attempt, breakaway rate, and elusive rating (per PFF). He's also a stellar pass catcher, as evidenced by sitting at 17th in yards per route run among FBS backs last year and drawing a 10.9% target share. The Cards look like one of the worst teams in the NFL, with concerning quarterback play. The cluttered backfield and worrisome scoring environment could hinder Love in 2026, keeping him as a strong RB2, but locking him out of RB1 status. If he does get the lion's share of the work, and their grouping of quarterbacks can produce something close to league-average passing production, Love could be a top-12 back. I'll remain lower than consensus on Love now that he has a high ankle sprain clouding his Week 1 availability and early-season effectiveness.

Marvin Harrison Jr. had a troubled 2025 season as he dealt with a concussion, an appendectomy, and a heel injury that cost him five games. In the eight games he played last year before dealing with appendicitis and a heel injury, he garnered a 21.9% target share, producing 61.6 receiving yards per game with 1.68 yards per route run, a 27.1% first-read share, and 0.082 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). During that stretch, he averaged 13.4 PPR points per game. It's a BIG if, but if he had kept up that type of production, he would have been the WR17 in fantasy points per game. Last year, if you put up that sample for Harrison Jr. against all wide receivers with at least 200 routes, he would have ranked 19th in target share, 16th in receiving yards per game, 44th in yards per route run, 23rd in first-read share, and 46th in first downs per route run. The passing volume for the Cards was propping up some shoddy per-route efficiency, but there are some slivers of hope to take away from this too. If he can overcome the quarterback play and a talented running mate in Michael Wilson, Harrison Jr. can be a volume-based WR3/flex for 2026.

Michael Wilson had Grand Canyon-sized splits last year when Marvin Harrison Jr. was out of the lineup versus when he was healthy. In the eight games Harrison Jr. was active before his heel injury and was healthy, Wilson had only an 11.7% target share, 23.4 receiving yards per game, 0.72 yards per route run, and a 14.1% first-read share (per Fantasy Points Data). That isn't remotely close to fantasy-viable production. In the games Harrison Jr. missed and during Weeks 16 & 17 (after Harrison Jr returned post heel injury), Wilson was absolutely fantastic with a 27.5% target share, 105.6 receiving yards per game, 2.79 yards per route run, and a 38.8% first-read share (23.3 PPR points per game). That is elite WR1-level production and efficiency. Wilson is a decent late-round receiver option, but I don't know if that level of production happens again, even in a watered-down fashion, if Harrison Jr. is healthy and the Cardinals get replacement-level quarterback play in 2026.

Tyler Allgeier is a handcuff/late round touchdown dependent flex option again this season. Last year, he was the RB45 in fantasy points per game, but with his eight scores last year, he had eight weeks as a top 36 running back and four games as a top 24 option in weekly scoring. Allgeier will be a thorn in Jeremiyah Love's side like he was for Bijan Robinson for a number of seasons. Last year, among 49 qualifying backs, Allgeier was 36th in explosive run rate, 39th in missed tackle rate, and 43rd in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data).

After Kyler Murray sustained what proved to be a season-ending foot injury early last season, Jacoby Brissett took over as the Cardinals starting quarterback for the final 12 games of the year. While the Cardinals won only one of Brissett's starts, Brissett pumped life into the Arizona passing game, averaging 288 passing yards per start and throwing 23 TD passes and eight interceptions. Heavy passing volume helped. Brissett averaged 40.3 pass attempts per start, and the Cardinals led the NFL in pass attempts. Brissett is expected to open the 2026 season as the Cardinals' starter, although Arizona drafted Carson Beck at the top of the third round. The Cardinals have a nice set of pass catchers with TE Trey McBride and WRs Marvin Harrison Jr and Michael Wilson. But with the Cardinals' passing volume likely to regress, and with the likelihood that Beck gets an audition at some point this season, Brissett is a risky fantasy play for anyone inclined to chase his 2025 numbers.

James Conner is a nice final-round flier in fantasy drafts right now. I still think Conner could get traded prior to Week 1, with Detroit and Green Bay being the likely destinations. Conner only had 32 carries last season before getting sidelined for the rest of the season with a broken ankle. In that small sample, he posted a 19% missed tackle rate, which is quite strong (per Fantasy Points Data). We are only one season removed from Conner posting an RB15 finish in fantasy points per game (2024). In 2024, among 46 qualifying backs, Conner ranked sixth in explosive run rate, second in missed tackle rate, and 11th in yards after contact per attempt. Conner could easily still be an efficient per-touch player in 2026 in the right system. Take the last-round flier and see if it pays off. If he remains buried on the Arizona depth chart, then he's an easy cut candidate prior to Week 1.