Fantasy Football Player Notes

When drafting a wide receiver in the first couple rounds, you can't afford to miss on them. Is there anyone more reliable than Hopkins? He's now seen at least 150 targets in six straight seasons and has finished as a top-five receiver in five of them. Sure, the Cardinals added A.J. Green and Rondale Moore, but that's not going to stop Kyler Murray from going to his favorite target.

Murray was extremely good to fantasy managers last year, delivering QB1-type performances 68.8 percent of the time, which was the third-best mark in the league. He wasn't just barely hitting those numbers, either, as he tallied 26-plus fantasy points on eight separate occasions, tied for the most in the league. The Cardinals added A.J. Green and Rondale Moore, while losing Kenyan Drake. This suggests there's going to be more dropbacks, which in turn means more fantasy points. Murray is an every-week starter and worthy of a top-five quarterback selection in the 4th/5th round.

Have we seen Edmonds carry the workload for the Cardinals before? Well, kind of. Despite Kenyan Drake struggling through much of 2020, there were just two games where Edmonds finished with more than eight carries, which is certainly a concern. The Cardinals went out and signed James Conner in free agency, but he's proven to be incapable of staying healthy with a full workload, and it wasn't a pricey contract, so maybe we see Edmonds in a bigger role. Whatever the case, we know he has the pass-catching role locked down, which has value in itself, as he was a flex-type option most weeks (he was an RB3 or better 62.5 percent of the time). This offense is going to score points, so if Edmonds were to get a slight bump in carries, he could make his way into the RB2 conversation. Draft him as an RB3/flex and hope that's the case. Just know that he's still yet to crack 100 carries in a season.

It's never a good thing for a running back to go from a workhorse role into a timeshare, but in Conner's case, it might be for the best. While operating as Le'Veon Bell's backup, Conner had pep in his step and performed like an RB1 when given the opportunity. But once he took over as the team's No. 1 running back, injuries continually piled up, letting his body know he wasn't capable of being that guy. Many are assuming that Chase Edmonds is the No. 1 running back in this offense, and while I believe that's the case, there's a non-zero percent chance that Conner takes over the Kenyan Drake role from last season that netted 239 carries and 31 targets. There's a reason the Cardinals signed him in free agency, so he will have a role, but the question is "how big?" He might be worth a late-round pick just in case he does get the Drake role (or even 80 percent of it).

There was a stretch of games during the 2020 season where Kirk was finally living up to his potential, as he posted 9.4-plus half-PPR points in five straight games, including three games with 18-plus points. He fell off a cliff after that, leading fantasy managers to search for new options in 2021, but there might be a reason to head back to the well. With the addition of A.J. Green, it's likely we see Kirk move to the slot, which is where I believe he should've been playing all along. Despite being inefficient and limited in athleticism at his advanced age, Larry Fitzgerald saw 112, 109, and 72 targets as the primary slot receiver over the last three years under Kliff Kingsbury. If Kirk can get near the 100-target mark, he'll be a value in drafts.

There are some fascinating things Moore can do on a football field. The question is whether he'll get the opportunity to showcase his talents in Kliff Kingsbury's offense. We already know DeAndre Hopkins is getting his share, and they've been talking up A.J. Green's involvement, which means Moore would have to surpass Christian Kirk in order to see the field in 3WR sets, which seems unlikely. To be fair, they do run 4WR sets more than any other team, but Andy Isabella is still in line for some snaps as well. It's tough to see Moore as a reliable fantasy option without an injury ahead of him on the depth chart.

Is he done? That's the question most believe has already been answered, though the Cardinals beg to differ. Giving him $8 million is not peanuts by any means and they have talked about how big of a role he'll have with the team, including Kyler Murray who said, "A lot of people are sleeping on him." The Bengals wide receivers all underperformed expectations last year, though Green was the ringleader, finishing with 63.8 fewer fantasy points than his opportunity suggested. We saw Hopkins make a difference in year one of the Cardinals system, so it's not like they discriminate against new bodies. Green is currently free in fantasy drafts, and knowing this team targeted wide receivers 65.5 percent of the time in 2020 (sixth in NFL), it makes sense to grab him with your final pick. If he gets six-plus targets in Week 1, he's going to be a popular waiver wire addition.

Prater had a poor fantasy season for several reasons. He attempted only 28 field goals and hardly made the most of them, converting only 21. That 75% field goal percentage was his worst since 2008, and his accuracy from long-range, usually his calling card, waned significantly, as he went just 10-for-17 from 40 yards or more (though he did set the NFL record for most career field goals of 50-yards or more). He signed a two-year deal with the Cardinals in the offseason and Arizona's fast-paced offense should allow for extra opportunities for Prater. He's not the kicker he once was, but he should see enough volume and have enough juice left in his leg to be a startable option.

It's been odd to watch Isabella not gain a bigger role in the offense over the last two years while Larry Fitzgerald faded into oblivion. He's only received 48 targets over his first two years in the league, though they've netted 413 yards and three touchdowns, so it's not like he wasn't productive with them. The issue is that we now have DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Green, and then a trio of second-round picks fighting behind them. Moore, who was drafted at 49 overall this year, Kirk who was drafted at 47 overall three years ago, and Isabella, who was drafted at 62 overall. If they didn't give Isabella the nod over Fitzgerald last year, I can't see it happening, especially when they chose to draft another second-round receiver.

Do you know how many times a Cardinals tight end scored double-digit half-PPR points last year? One. It was when Dan Arnold caught two balls for 61 yards and two touchdowns. Heck, there was just one time in 2019 where a Cardinals tight end caught more than three balls. It's simple: Kliff Kingsbury doesn't care about tight ends producing, especially when they added a couple receivers to the mix this offseason.