Fantasy Football Player Notes

Damien Harris is now with the Buffalo Bills (replaced by James Robinson) which suggests that Rhamondre Stevenson's role/production in 2023 will be more of what we saw from Weeks 5-16 (RB13 in points per game) when Harris was either not active or not 100% when playing. Even when Harris played alongside Stevenson, the Patriots RB finished third in route participation (58%) and targets (82) among running backs. And remember Stevenson's strong 2022 campaign en route to an RB10 finish was not fueled by touchdowns. In fact, Stevenson was one of the worst RBs converting from inside the 10-yard line as he scored just thrice despite 19 goal-line carries. His teammate Harris scored thrice from inside the 10 - on just 6 carries. If Stevenson experiences positive TD regression, he undoubtedly will build off a strong sophomore season. Fantasy managers should be rejoiced by the swap from Harris to Robinson after the latter was unwanted by two different teams and was benched in favor of an undrafted free agent Zonovan Knight with the Jets. Stevenson will be fine. And J-Rob likely prevents the Patriots from adding anybody else better. In the worst case, from the Stevenson perspective, Robinson operates in a Harris role. But recall that Stevenson was hardly scoring TDs anyway last season and still finished as a fantasy RB1.

Mike Gesicki is one of the most athletic tight ends in the league, but he was a complete nonfactor in fantasy last season. After a 73-catch, 780-yard season in 2021, Gesicki was franchised-tagged by the Dolphins last year, only to become an afterthought in head coach Mike McDaniel's offense. Gesicki averaged just 3.1 targets per game in 2022 and finished with 32 catches for 362 yards and five touchdowns. Gesicki has since signed with the Patriots, where he'll be reunited with his college coach at Penn State, Bill O'Brien, who's now the Patriots' offensive coordinator. Gesicki could become a more appealing fantasy option in 2023 if O'Brien is committed to better utilizing Gesicki's impressive skill set.

After scoring nine touchdowns in 2021, Hunter Henry scored just two touchdowns in 2022 and finished TE21 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring. Now, he'll have to share TE targets with free-agent addition Mike Gesicki, who played for Patriots offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien at Penn State. Not counting the 2018 season, which he missed with a torn ACL, Henry has produced 500+ receiving yards in each of his last five seasons.

James Robinson was unwanted by two different teams and was benched in favor of an undrafted free agent Zonovan Knight with the Jets. It's still Rhamondre Stevenson's backfield. And J-Rob likely prevents the Patriots from adding anybody else better. In the best case, from the Robinson perspective, the former Jet operates in a Damien Harris role.

But Robinson's contract is also very incentive-based, meaning he has to really earn his playing time. It's not guaranteed he sniffs the field, even as Stevenson's primary backup, if he can't recapture his pre-torn Achilles form.

After finishing runner-up in the Offensive Rookie of the Year balloting in 2021, Mac Jones regressed slightly in his second NFL season, with slight dips in yards per attempt, completion percentage and TD rate. Jones averaged 214.1 yards per game, with 14 TD passes and 11 INTs in 14 games. Jones offers little value as a runner, and he might already be near his ceiling as a passer. Consider Jones a fantasy backup whose primary value is that he seems entrenched as New England's starter for at least one more season, barring a challenge from young backup Bailey Zappe.