Fantasy Football Player Notes
2025 Draft Rankings
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51.
Courtland Sutton
WR - (vs . LAC)
As Bo Nix's WR1 last year, Courtland Sutton finished as the WR24 in fantasy points per game, commanding a 23.3% target share and 44.9% air yard share. Among 85 qualifying wide receivers, he ranked 26th in receiving yards per game (63.6), 28th in yards per route run (2.13), and 15th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Sutton should reprise his role as Nix's security blanket. He will face competition for the weekly lead in targets with Evan Engram, but it's comfortably Sutton and Engram at the top of the mountain while the rest of the receiving options fight for the remaining targets. Sutton is a strong WR2/3.
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71.
RJ Harvey
RB - (vs . LAC)
Harvey is set to explode in his rookie season. The runway is clear for takeoff. Sean Payton just put second-round capital behind a back that enters a room with Audric Estime, Jaleel McLaughlin, and J.K. Dobbins. No, I'm not worried about Estime or McLaughlin when they couldn't carve out consistent roles last year with only the ghost of Javonte Williams standing in their way. Dobbins will assist Harvey on early downs so Denver doesn't run their talented rookie into the ground, but I don't project him taking away passing down work or high-leverage opportunities. It's hard not to love a player like Harvey, who has ranked inside the top 20 among FBS running backs in each of the last two seasons in breakaway percentage and elusive rating (per PFF). Add in Payton's running back usage, and Harvey looks primed to smash. Over the last two years, Payton has ranked fifth and first in running back target share. Harvey is a strong RB2 who could finish as an RB1 this season.
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78.
Bo Nix
QB - (vs . LAC)
I was down on Bo Nix entering last season. Early on, it looked like I was right about my evaluation of him as a prospect. Nix STRUGGLED out of the gate before turning it on in Week 5. Once the candle was lit for Nix, he coffin nailed my evaluation of his upside in the NFL. In Weeks 5-18, Nix was the QB6 in fantasy points per game, ranking 15th in yards per attempt, tenth in CPOE, ninth in highly accurate throw rate, and eighth in fantasy points per dropback (per Fantasy Points Data). I've never been happier being proved wrong. He was nothing short of amazing and placed third in the NFL Rookie of the Year voting. He also provided rushing upside, which I didn't expect in the NFL. Last year, he ranked tenth in carries per game and eighth in rushing yards among quarterbacks. Denver added Pat Bryant, R.J. Harvey, J.K. Dobbins, and Evan Engram to this offense in the offseason. Nix could take another step in 2025 with the added weaponry and be a top-five quarterback.
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107.
Evan Engram
TE - (vs . LAC)
Evan Engram could SMASH his ADP this year as Sean Payton's Joker. Everyone will point to last year as a reason to have worries about Engram, who ranked 20th in yards per route run, but his target-drawing ability was just fine, ranking fifth in targets per route run and third in target share. He was also dealing with shoulder and hamstring issues. Those were his first injuries to deal with during a season since 2021. In Engram's two previous seasons, he ranked 13th and 14th in yards per route run and second and 12th in target share (per Fantasy Points Data). Also, in 2023-2024, Engram excelled in one of the hallmark metrics that I look at when evaluating talent and upside at the tight end position: yards per route run versus man coverage. In those seasons, Engram ranked fourth and eighth in this metric. Engram's best competition for targets is Courtland Sutton. Engram could lead Denver in targets this season. If that happens, he'll likely be knocking on the door of the top 3-5 tight ends in 2025.
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147.
Marvin Mims Jr.
WR - (vs . LAC)
Marvin Mims flashed major upside in the second half of 2024, averaging 62 receiving yards per game and leading all WRs in yards per route run (3.63) from Week 11 onward. He also posted a strong 28% target rate per route run on the year, ranking 13th in the NFL. Still just 23 years old, Mims is a prime third-year breakout candidate in a Broncos offense looking to grow alongside Bo Nix.
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164.
Denver Broncos
DST - (vs . LAC)
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167.
J.K. Dobbins
RB - (vs . LAC)
J.K. Dobbins had a nice bounceback season last year as the RB18 in fantasy points per game with 227 touches and 1,058 total yards. Among 46 qualifying backs, he ranked 17th in explosive run rate, but he was outside the top 25 backs in missed tackles forced per attempt and yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). He also recorded the third-highest stuff rate among those sampled rushers. After we pop open the hood and look closer at Dobbins' per-touch metrics from 2024, it's not surprising that he lasted as long as he did on the open market. Denver has added him to their backfield rotation on a modest one-year deal. He'll likely contribute on early downs, taking some of the load off R.J. Harvey so they don't run their talented rookie into the ground, but I don't expect him to be much more than a handcuff or touchdown-dependent flex play this season. The addition of Dobbins to this backfield does crush any hope for Audric Estime breaking out in 2025.
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172.
Audric Estime
RB - (vs . LAC)
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184.
Jaleel McLaughlin
RB - (vs . LAC)
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208.
Wil Lutz
K - (vs . LAC)
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245.
Devaughn Vele
WR - (vs . LAC)
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279.
Pat Bryant
WR - (vs . LAC)
Pat Bryant's rookie ADP has surged since being selected in the third round by the Denver Broncos, but fantasy managers should approach with caution. The Illinois product was ranked well outside the top tiers of the class pre-draft, and the history of "mid-round reaches" at wide receiver offers more misses than hits. Bryant profiles as a size/speed possession receiver at 6-foot-3, 204 pounds, but he lacks standout athleticism - he ran a 4.61 40-yard dash and didn't break out until age 20. He recorded just one career game with double-digit targets and was actually out-targeted this past season by teammate Zakhari Franklin - who went undrafted. While some may latch onto the idea that Sean Payton sees a "Michael Thomas" archetype in Bryant, the underlying data suggests this is a bet on projection, not production.
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338.
Troy Franklin
WR - (vs . LAC)
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452.
Tyler Badie
RB - (vs . LAC)
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479.
Adam Trautman
TE - (vs . LAC)
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490.
Michael Burton
RB - (vs . LAC)
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514.
Lucas Krull
TE - (vs . LAC)
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530.
Caleb Lohner
TE - (vs . LAC)
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546.
Trent Sherfield Sr.
WR - (vs . LAC)
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558.
Nate Adkins
TE - (vs . LAC)
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562.
Blake Watson
RB - (vs . LAC)
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