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DraftKings MLB Lineup Advice: Friday (7/21)

DraftKings MLB Lineup Advice: Friday (7/21)

Tonight’s slate is a doozy. I’m a fan of it, however, as there are a few elite starting pitchers and some excellent middle-tier arms, too. What makes this slate a bit more fun, though, is the presence of a game at Coors Field with underwhelming starters getting the ball there, the Nationals superstar, top-heavy offense at Chase Field, and a bottom of the barrel of starting pitchers that’s led to four games carrying double-digit over/under totals, according to Pinnacle. There doesn’t appear to be a ton of super chalky options, and that opens the door a wide array of roster construction possibilities without the usual desire to go out of one’s way to find contrarian picks. Having said that, I did veer away from Chris Sale, Max Scherzer, and Alex Wood as my SP1 in favor of a different five-figure ace. I’m also ponying up a little extra at SP2 and slotting in an arm who’s over $8,000. There are a couple of pitchers just under $8,000 who I think will be over owned, but I’ll address them a bit below. There’s not a full-blown stack on this team, but there is a 3-man stack and a teammate pairing. Tonight, I’ll likely enter a wide variety of lineups mixing in some of the other aces. Not everyone I’ll consider using is going to be featured in the honorable mentions, and that’s because of the wide gap in prices between the SP1 I’m choosing and those I’d consider. The honorable mentions listed below will be geared toward being interchangeable with the roster constructed (i.e., if I’m suggesting a $3,500 option, I won’t be listing a $5,000 honorable mention at that position since it would require another big change at a different position). Now that I’ve gotten an extra lengthy intro out of the way, let’s look at the GPP roster I’ve built below.

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Pitcher

Yu Darvish (TEX): $10,600 @ Rays

Darvish has been very good this year, but he hasn’t been anywhere near the class of hurler the other five-figure starting pitchers on this slate have been. I expect his ownership to lag behind those other three stud arms, but the matchup sets up excellently for Darvish. The Rays are one of the better offenses in baseball against righties ranking third in wRC+ (112), according to FanGraphs, but they’re the fourth most strikeout-happy squad against them with a 24.3% K%. They’ve also been fearsome at home ranking fifth with a 116 wRC+, but, again, they’re punch-out prone checking in with the fourth highest strikeout rate (24.7%) in home games. Pinnacle pegs Darvish and the Rangers as -121 favorites in a game with an over/under total of eight runs. I suspect a number of ill-informed gamers will see Alex Cobb‘s 2.21 ERA over the last 30 days and use him, likely further suppressing Darvish’s ownership in relation to the other studs. Cobb’s ERA is way out of whack with his advanced numbers (3.84 FIP, 4.72 xFIP, and 4.93 SIERA) during his “hot” stretch, and between his inability to miss bats (14.3% K%) and lack of impressive batted-ball data, he’s a pitcher I’d be more inclined to stack against — even with a Rangers squad that struggles mightily away from Globe Life Park — than use. With a 25.2% K% over the last 30 days and a 25.6% K% on the year, Darvish is armed with the goods to exploit Tampa Bay’s swing-and-miss tendencies. He’s bested 30 DraftKings points just once in his last 10 games, but that’s the type of point total that’s within his reach tonight.

Trevor Cahill (SDP): $8,300 @ Giants

Cahill’s last start was against the Giants, and after scoring 27.6 DraftKings points against them, Cahill isn’t going to be slept on. He’s been brilliant in his first season with the Padres tallying a 3.14 ERA (3.22 FIP, 3.07 xFIP, and 3.30 SIERA as well as a 2.39 DRA, per Baseball Prospectus), 1.24 WHIP, 8.3% BB%, 29.5% K%, 56.8% GB%, and 13.4% SwStr%. He’s gotten right back into a groove in three starts since his activation from the disabled list, and the Giants make for a soft foe. In fact, there arguably hasn’t been a softer foe for right-handed pitchers this year than the Giants. San Francisco ranks next to last in wRC+ (79, one point above the Rockies), but they’re the only club with a sub-.300 wOBA (.290, the Angels and Padres are tied for 28th with a .302 wOBA). The Giants are -158 favorites with Jeff Samardzija toeing the rubber, but the game’s over/under total of only 7.5 runs is inviting, and Cahill doesn’t need a win to provide a valuable ROI on a salary that’s a bit below where he should be priced.

Honorable Mentions

Catcher

Brian McCann (HOU): $3,700 @ Orioles

Catchers routinely get days off, thus, I’m inclined to provide a few alternatives below. To be clear, I have zero intention of pivoting to the other $3,600-$3,700 catchers if McCann is playing, and Tony Wolters is my preferred alternative on a slightly tweaked version of this roster featuring another pricey big bat in the outfield who just missed the cut on this one (but is featured in honorable mentions). Anyway, getting back to McCann, he’s been a bit below average against righties this year with a 95 wRC+, but he’s been a bit better than average against them since 2015 with a 104 wRC+. Since 2015, he also owns a .188 ISO. His power has slipped some this year, but it’ll get a pick-me-up from a left-handed batter park factor for homers of 109 in Baltimore, according to StatCorner’s rolling 3-year average, and from facing Ubaldo Jimenez. Jimenez has coughed up a .383 OBP, .654 SLG, .426 wOBA, and 14 homers to 184 lefties faced this year. Don’t forget those numbers, they’ll come in handy a little later, too.

Honorable Mentions

First Base

Joey Gallo (TEX) : $3,500 @ Rays

The honorable mentions at first base are fine and dandy, but I’m completely enamored with Gallo against Cobb tonight. Cobb’s .299 wOBA allowed to left-handed batters this year is a total fluke. He’s done a mediocre job of keeping the ball on the ground against lefties with a 39.0% GB% (identical to his FB%), and he’s yielded a 22.0% LD% and eye-popping 39.1% Hard%. Cobb’s modest 17.1% K% against lefties and 6.7% SwStr% against all hitters that’s second lowest among qualified pitchers this year screams dream matchup for TTO (Three True Outcomes) hero Joey Gallo. When Gallo makes contact, he tends to do damage, and Cobb’s flirting with disaster with his pitch-to-contact approach and Gallo’s .317 ISO against right-handed pitchers this year.

Honorable Mentions

Second Base

Dee Gordon (MIA): $4,000 @ Reds

Gordon’s part of a teammate pairing I alluded to above. Homer Bailey has been beaten like a drum since his return from the disabled list, and the Marlins are just small underdogs in Cincinnati with the host Reds -112 favorites. It’s nearly a pick ’em, and that leaves plenty of projected runs for the visiting Marlins in a game with an over/under total of 10 runs. Gordon sits atop Miami’s lineup with a .345 OBP against righties this year — albeit with a less impressive 90 wRC+ due to his lack of pop (.071 ISO). What Gordon lacks for in power he partially makes up for in speed with 32 stolen bases in 39 attempts this year. The matchup is favorable for him stealing a base against Bailey. Bailey’s allowed four stolen bases in five games this year after yielding five in six games last year. Even during his best years, he was easy to run on, though, not at the rate we’ve seen this year and last.

Honorable Mention

Third Base

Travis Shaw (MIL): $4,100 @ Phillies

Shaw is flourishing in his first year in the Senior Circuit with the Brewers. In 270 plate appearances against righties this year, he has a .381 OBP, .289 ISO, 148 wRC+, and 39.9% Hard%. He matches up nicely with Philadelphia’s starter Aaron Nola. The right-handed pitcher has allowed a .350 OBP and .328 wOBA to left-handed batters this year, but it’s his pitch mix that really has me excited about slotting in Shaw. According to FanGraphs, Nola throws his fourseamer and sinker a combined 54.5% of the time followed by his curveball (30.2%), and then his changeup (15.3%). FanGraphs’ Pitch Values has Shaw doing his most damage against fastballs this year and in his career, and he’s also posting positive values against the changeup (the pitch he’s done the second most damage against in his career) and curve. He has a positive pitch value against curves in his rookie season (248 plate appearances in 2015) and this year sandwiching a small negative value in 2016.

Honorable Mentions

Shortstop

Marcus Semien (OAK): $3,300 @ Mets

Semien’s bat has been quite in a year he’s only managed 90 plate appearances due to injury and a lengthy DL stint, but his track record against lefties coupled with Steven Matz‘s struggles missing bats makes him a solid punt option. Since 2015, Semien owns a .336 OBP, .207 ISO, and 128 wRC+ against southpaws. As an added bonus, you’re getting a number-two hitter at his punt salary.

Honorable Mentions

Outfield

Christian Yelich (MIA): $3,700 @ Reds

Yelich joins Gordon as a piece of exposure to gas-can Bailey. The righty has allowed a .404 OBP, .542 SLG, and .402 wOBA to lefties this year. Miami’s number-three hitter has a .381 OBP, .167 ISO, and 129 wRC+ against righties since 2015. He’s a steal at his salary even in a year that’s seen his production slip some against righties to a .374 OBP, .129 ISO, and 109 wRC+. For good measure, he’ll get a park factor bump from a left-handed batter park factor of 117 for homers should he actually lift the ball.

Marwin Gonzalez (HOU) (HOU): $4,400 @ Orioles

The last two outfield spots are comprised of Houston hitters who will bat left-handed against the ultra-giving Jimenez. The 28-year-old switch-hitting Gonzalez is having a breakout season in which he’s ripped righties for a .406 OBP, .271 ISO, and 170 wRC+.

Josh Reddick (HOU): $4,400 @ Orioles

Reddick hasn’t stomped all over righties to the degree Gonzalez has this season, but he’s the owner of a .359 OBP, .226 ISO, and 138 wRC+ against righties this year (an identical wRC+ to his mark against them last year). He also has a more established track record than the late-blooming Gonzalez with a .363 OBP, .190 ISO, and 135 wRC+ against righties since 2015.

Honorable Mentions

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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