Now that we’ve made it through a solid six months without actual NFL games, we’re now just a few days from watching backups take the field. And let me tell you, there will never be another time where families will gather in front of their televisions to watch second- and third-stringers play. But we do it because we crave the game, because we haven’t had a chance to root for our fantasy teams in almost seven months. But that’s all over in just a few days.
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While you’ve been gone, a lot has taken place. Some things have an impact on your fantasy team, while some things don’t. If you’ve missed any of the offseason transactions that took place, I wrote up nearly every one of them that has fantasy implications in the “Fantasy Impact” series. You can find all of those right here. On top of that, I put together an article describing the training camp battles to watch, whether it be the incoming rookies, or veterans fighting for jobs to be fantasy relevant. Each and every team has something going on, and you can find that article right here.
Whew, now that you’re all caught up, we need to get started on our rankings. This series will be going through each position, guiding you through the tiers at each position and what round you should be targeting each of them. Believe it or not, I’ve already done more than 50 drafts this offseason, making it easier for me to identify when certain players will go, as well as those who are (somehow) still undervalued. We’ll start with the running back position today and hit the other positions throughout the next few weeks. If you want to learn more about some of the players, I’ve written in-depth player profiles that are typically 1,000-1,500 words long. The entire list of player profiles is right here.
Over the last few weeks, we’ve gone through the quarterbacks, tight ends, and wide receivers, tier-by-tier, player-by-player. If you somehow missed those, here are the links to them:
Tight Ends
Running Backs
Wide Receivers
Tier One (Round 1)
These two belong in a tier of their own atop draft boards. Ezekiel Elliott would have been in this tier if not for the six-game suspension that was handed down to him. If he were to win his appeal and knock it down to just two games, he belongs in this tier. You can’t really make a bad choice between Bell and Johnson atop the draft board, but I’m taking Bell, as he’s the one in the higher-powered offense.
Tier Two (Round 1)
McCoy won’t be part of Rex Ryan’s “run-it-down-their-throat” offense, but new head coach Sean McDermott is a former defensive coordinator who will also likely employ a run-first offense. There is always the concern about his age and durability, but if McCoy’s on the field, he’s an RB1. Through 12 games before getting hurt last year, Gordon was the No. 3 running back behind only David Johnson and Ezekiel Elliott. He did that while averaging just 3.9 yards per carry behind one of the worst offensive lines in football, an area they improved this offseason.
Tier Three (Round 2)
Devonta Freeman
Jay Ajayi
Todd Gurley
Leonard Fournette
DeMarco Murray
Jordan Howard
Carlos Hyde
There’ll be some who disagree with Hyde on this list, but the arrival of new head coach Kyle Shanahan can only mean good things for last year’s No. 9 running back in points per game. Freeman doesn’t quite feel like a first-round pick with Shanahan gone, but is still a solid pick. Ajayi has some injury concerns, but no competition for carries when healthy. The Gurley hate has gone a bit over the top, and it’s likely because of the fact that he was drafted as the No. 1 running back in drafts last year. We saw his floor last year, but he’s still one of just maybe five running backs we can lock in for 275-plus carries. Murray has Derrick Henry biting at his heels for a bigger role and the Titans appear ready to throw a bit more in 2017. Howard looked great in a small sample last year, but it’s still going to be very hard for him to live up to his second-round price tag in the Bears offense. Fournette is the wildcard of the group, but he could very well approach 250 carries with the defense they put together in Jacksonville.
Tier Four (Rounds 3-4)
Isaiah Crowell
C.J. Anderson
Lamar Miller
Marshawn Lynch
Joe Mixon
Ezekiel Elliott
Spencer Ware
Ty Montgomery
Mark Ingram
Here’s the tier that is a bit cloudy, as most of them have another running back on the roster, vying for more playing time. That’s why Elliot is on this list. Granted, his six-game suspension is going to hurt, but if you’re able to make the playoffs while taking him this late, crown yourself the champion. It’s important to note that he still comes with plenty of risk and that it’s essentially a seven-game suspension, as the Cowboys are on their bye in Week 7. In this tier, Crowell has Duke Johnson stealing roughly 100 carries and 70 targets, Anderson’s trying to earn the bulk of carries over Jamaal Charles and Devontae Booker, Lamar Miller‘s fighting off rookie D’Onta Foreman, Lynch is fighting father time, Mixon’s trying to earn playing time over Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard, Ware’s trying to fight off the rookie Kareem Hunt, Montgomery’s trying to lock down pass protection to be the Packers three-down back, and Ingram is battling a 31-year-old Adrian Peterson. They all come with risk, but in a lot of their cases, it’s worth it. If Ware and/or Montgomery are announced as the starters, move them towards the top of this tier.
Tier Five (Rounds 4-5)
Christian McCaffrey
Paul Perkins
Mike Gillislee
Bilal Powell
Ameer Abdullah
Dalvin Cook
This tier is a bunch of guys who are locked into timeshares, but may be able to pull away due to their talent level. McCaffrey is a highly-unknown at this point, but he’s the best playmaker on the Panthers roster. Perkins has been declared the starter and I have him higher than most, but Shane Vereen and Wayne Gallman will have roles. Gillislee and Powell both have top-12 upside, but we’d all be lying if we said that we knew how much of the timeshares they’d receive. But truth be told, it shouldn’t shock you if Gillislee scored double-digit touchdowns. Abdullah is going to split time with Theo Riddick in the passing game, but he’s the best talent they have on first and second down. Cook is someone I want to move higher, but can’t considering the Vikings move in free agency to sign Latavius Murray.
Tier Six (Rounds 5-7)
Eddie Lacy
Doug Martin
Adrian Peterson
Terrance West
Frank Gore
Danny Woodhead
Tevin Coleman
LeGarrette Blount
This seems to be the area of running backs who won’t win you a fantasy title, but they also won’t lose it for you, either. The only exception to this rule is Coleman, who has been overvalued in early drafts with the expectation that he produces like he did last year under Shanahan. He’s a backup running back on an offense that’s going to regress. Lacy, Peterson, West, Gore, and Blount fit into the exact same category of aging running backs with arguably better talent on the roster, but they’ll get the nod as veterans. Martin is someone who could be a serious value if he can return to 2015 form, but you mustn’t forget that he’s suspended for the first three games of the season.
Tier Seven (Rounds 8-10)
Derrick Henry
Darren McFadden
Samaje Perine
Duke Johnson
Matt Forte
Theo Riddick
James White
C.J. Prosise
A lot of these running backs are ones you’d rather not have starting on your team, but rather on your bench in case of an injury. So, your goal in drafts should be to have your starting running backs locked up by the end of the seventh round. McFadden is the one of the only ones who’ll have value right out of the gate with Elliott suspended for the first six weeks. Most seem to forget that McFadden led the NFL in rushing before Elliott arrived in Dallas. He’ll be a borderline RB1 for the first six weeks of the season. Henry has massive upside if something were to happen to DeMarco Murray, but until then, he’s a touchdown-dependent flex play. Perine could be the starter by Week 1, which would surely vault him up in tiers, likely landing in the fourth or fifth tier of running backs. Prosise may be a diamond in the rough, should Eddie Lacy fail. Johnson, Forte, Riddick, and White will all have roles in the passing game right away, but it appears unlikely they’ll have any realistic shot of finishing as top 20 running backs at season’s end.
Tier Eight (Rounds 10-13)
Kareem Hunt
Darren Sproles
Jamaal Williams
Thomas Rawls
Chris Thompson
Jamaal Charles
Alvin Kamara
Jonathan Stewart
Jeremy Hill
Some of the running backs in this range are an extension of those in the tier above with slightly less upside, like Sproles and Thompson. Meanwhile, this is the time in your draft to take a chance on players like Hunt or Williams who have the opportunity of a lifetime if they were to beat out a veteran for the starting job. Charles is a complete wildcard at this point, and one that’s not even guaranteed to make the team. Again, this tier is not for players you’ll be relying upon every week, but rather players who can make a profit on their draft spot. As much hype as Stewart has gotten recently, it’s unlikely he falls this far, but if he does, I suppose you’ll have a touchdown-dependent flex option.
If you’ve missed any of the Player Profiles that have gone up, you can see the full list right here.
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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.