Week 2 Primer: Analyzing All 16 Games (Fantasy Football)

Tennessee Titans (-1.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars Over/Under: 43.5

Last week in this exact spot for the Jaguars, I was explaining that they should win the game against the Texans, provided Blake Bortles didn’t give it away. With that being said, they should be a bigger underdog in this game. Losing Allen Robinson further hurts this offense that had little firepower outside of him and Leonard Fournette to begin with. The defense is going to be top-five, but points have to go up on the board. The Titans biggest weakness is their secondary, which is something the Jaguars can’t really exploit. They say that defense wins championships, so this will be a real test to that theory, because the Jaguars defense is legit, but their offense is putrid. This isn’t the Super Bowl, but you get the point.

QBs: Marcus Mariota didn’t throw a touchdown last weekend, but he still finished as the No. 6 quarterback in Week 1. Funny how things like that happen when you have a quarterback who is able to run. The Jaguars proved to be too much for the Texans talent-deprived offensive line, sacking the quarterback 10 times, but that won’t happen to Mariota, who has one of the best lines in football. Since their bye week in 2016 (Week 4) the Jaguars defense has allowed just 13 passing touchdowns in 13 games, making this a less-than-ideal matchup for Mariota. Fortunately, they gave him a ton of weapons to work with and it’ll be interesting to see how they match up with the Jaguars cornerbacks. I’ll say that Mariota is a strong QB2 this week because of his legs, but outside the QB1 conversation due to lack of ceiling. On the other side of the field, Blake Bortles will be forced to live life without Allen Robinson. He’s been there before back in 2014 when Robinson missed six games. In those games, Bortles completed just 52.5 percent of his passes while averaging just 164 passing yards per game with 0.5 touchdowns and 0.5 interceptions. Add in the fact that the Jaguars want to run the ball 50 times per game (did 39 times in Week 1) and you have yourself a problem. The matchup is great, but Bortles cannot be trusted outside of a crazy off-the-wall tournament play due to the weak Titans secondary.

RBs: It sure didn’t look good for 29-year-old DeMarco Murray against the Raiders where he totaled just 44 yards on 12 carries. That was a team he destroyed for 155 total yards and a touchdown earlier last season. On top of that, the matchup against the Jaguars isn’t great, as they held him to just 42 yards on 14 carries in Week 16 last season with a defense that didn’t feature Pro Bowl defensive lineman Calais Campbell. Murray shouldn’t be benched in season-long leagues or anything, but he’s more of an RB2 than the RB1 you probably drafted him as. Derrick Henry saw six of the 20 running back touches in Week 1, making him exactly what he was last year, a volatile touchdown-dependent option. This is not a week where you should play him and expect a touchdown. Leonard Fournette was brilliant in his NFL debut against the highly-regarded Texans run defense and should be looked at as a fantasy asset in any format. This game is going to be another tough one, as the Titans have allowed just 14 rushing scores over the last two years combined. Just last week they kept Marshawn Lynch in check for 76 scoreless yards on 18 carries. Still, he will get as much work as he can handle, making him a solid RB2 this week. Don’t consider Chris Ivory or T.J. Yeldon this week, as they are just there to give Fournette a breather.

WRs: Corey Davis looked really good in his pro debut, snagging six receptions for 69 yards despite not having any game-action with Mariota. Their relationship will build over time, but this week is not one where you should go out of your way to play him. He’ll see a mixture of A.J. Bouye and Jalen Ramsey, who are possibly the best cornerback duo in the game. Davis played just 14 percent of his snaps in the slot, which is the only way to escape that duo. Consider Davis a risky WR4 who’ll have better days ahead. Rishard Matthews is in the same boat, as he’s on the perimeter about 80 percent of the time. Eric Decker actually has the best matchup of the bunch, and although he was missing from the stat sheet in Week 1, he could post solid WR3 numbers in this game. He’ll match-up with slot cornerback Aaron Colvin, who if you’re going to pick the lesser of three evils, he is the one you want to target, and despite minimal production, Decker did actually see eight targets last week. Marqise Lee is going to be called upon as the team’s No. 1 wide receiver, while Allen Hurns, who was moved out of the top three wide receivers on the depth chart a week ago, is now the No. 2 with the injuries to Robinson and Dede Westbrook. This is almost as good as it gets matchup-wise, so if you are ever going to start Lee, now is the time. The Titans depth chart at cornerback is one of the worst in the NFL and the only thing holding this team back from making a real run. Lee should be considered a WR3/4 option in this game, while Hurns falls into the WR5 with upside category.

TEs: We’ve hit on a lot of areas where the Jaguars excel, but one area they have been beat is by tight ends. Over their last five games, they have allowed these PPR totals to tight ends (most recent first): C.J. Fiedorowicz (missed half the game) 8.6, Dwayne Allen 12.4, Delanie Walker 11.3, Ryan Griffin 16.5, and Kyle Rudolph 16.0. In Walker’s game against them, he totaled just 23 yards, but scored a touchdown. The supporting cast looks a lot different this time around, meaning he won’t be the top priority – he’s a TE1 in this matchup and one that I’d use confidently. It seems as if the Jaguars don’t really have a pass-catching tight end, as they received a combined one target in Week 1. Going by snap count it’s Marcedes Lewis, who hasn’t topped 48 yards receiving since Week 14 of 2014. Until we see him consistently get 4-5 targets per game, he’s not on the fantasy radar. And no, if he scores a touchdown, that doesn’t automatically put him on radars – anyone can catch a touchdown from time-to-time.

Prediction: Titans 20, Jaguars 16

New York Jets at Oakland Raiders (-14.0) Over/Under: 43.5

What a game this one should turn out to be, eh? Just one week after playing the Bills (who were giving 9.5 points to them), the Jets will head out to Oakland to play against the Raiders, who are the biggest favorite of the week. The implied team total for the Raiders is 28.5, which means you want as many of them rostered as possible (as if you didn’t already). It’s not crazy, either, as 13 of their last 17 opponents have scored at least 22 points against them, and almost all of that was while they actually had defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson.

QBs: It seems like Josh McCown will remain the Jets starter for at least one more week before they make the move to either Bryce Petty or Christian Hackenberg, but it’s not like you’re going to use him in anything, especially when his team is projected to score just 15 points. Stay away. Derek Carr on the other hand, is someone who is safe to use in DFS cash games, but I’d worry about his ceiling in tournaments because Marshawn Lynch should be the highlighted player on everyone’s sheets. Still, the Jets have allowed 14 passing touchdowns on the last 127 attempts against starting quarterbacks, making Carr a can’t-miss QB1 in this contest.

RBs: What in the world did Bilal Powell do to his coaches over the years? Despite playing well in his role throughout the years, nobody has ever given him a shot at the workhorse role. After the way the 2016 season ended, he seemed to lock it up, but nope. In Week 1, he was out-snapped 30 to 35 by Matt Forte. Once again, Powell is a risky fantasy bet who doesn’t have a starting job. The Raiders aren’t a shutdown run-defense by any means, but neither were the Bills and we know how that worked out. Still, the Jets have no prayer in this game, making Powell an attractive option in the flex because he’ll rank up receptions as the game goes on. Until we see his snaps increase dramatically, he comes with a fair amount of risk. Matt Forte is done and it was apparent on his six carries that netted just 16 yards. He isn’t an option in season-long or DFS. This is the week to get as much exposure to Marshawn Lynch as possible. Season-long, cash games, tournaments, everywhere. The Jets are going to be a stomping ground for Lynch’s Raiders home debut (it’s his hometown). When you get rid of a defensive tackle like Sheldon Richardson who is among the best run-stuffers in football, there will be consequences. We saw those consequences in Week 1 when LeSean McCoy and Mike Tolbert combined for 213 total yards and a touchdown against them. Lynch is an elite RB1 in this contest. It seems that there is a mix of DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard behind him, so it’s impossible to guess who would get the garbage time work between them. If forced to decide, Washington would be the one.

WRs: After we assumed that Robby Anderson would be the No. 1 option by default, in comes Jermaine Kearse to see nine targets while Anderson saw eight. Neither could get anything going against the Bills weak secondary, making them hard to trust in a matchup against the Raiders, who have allowed just three wide receivers to top 71 yards in their last 13 games. When seeing the low implied team total, it’s also unlikely they hit pay-dirt. I’d still choose Anderson over Kearse if I’m picking one because the Raiders weakness is over the top, as their cornerbacks allowed some big plays last year. We know Kearse isn’t a big-play guy, so consider him just a WR5, while Anderson is still in the WR4 conversation. If you didn’t see Amari Cooper‘s touchdown last week, you need to go back and watch it. He added 10 pounds of muscle this offseason and without it, he wouldn’t have scored that touchdown. He also dropped a ball in the endzone, so it wasn’t all good, but his matchup against the Jets is another great one. Both he and Michael Crabtree are safe WR2 plays with massive upside against the cornerback combination of Morris Claiborne and Buster Skrine of the Jets. Claiborne had a solid year with the Cowboys in 2016, but has been extremely inconsistent throughout his career, while Skrine is the definition of an average NFL cornerback. Cooper is the preferred play of the two, but Crabtree is a solid play in his own right. It should also be noted that Cooper saw four redzone targets in Week 1, which is a massive step in the right direction for him, as he saw just 15 of those targets the entire 2016 season. Seth Roberts is going to score a touchdown here and there, but don’t think about rostering him unless both Crabtree and Cooper are matched up with lockdown cornerbacks.

TEs: It’ll be another week the Jets are without Austin Seferian-Jenkins, so it’s more of Will Tye in Week 2. The Raiders can be beaten by tight ends, as evidenced by Delanie Walker last week, but Tye is just a boring option who should be an afterthought when setting your lineups. Jared Cook is the Raiders primary pass-catching tight end and he caught all five targets in Week 1 for 56 yards. The Jets have now allowed eight touchdowns to tight ends in their last six games, making Cook an interesting streaming option. He should be looked at as a solid TE2 in season-long leagues and a decent tournament option in DFS. You’ll never feel great putting Cook into your lineup, but if he sees the targets he did in Week 1 consistently, he’ll be on the TE1 radar.

Prediction: Raiders 31, Jets 17

Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5) Over/Under: 45.0

This is weird to say we haven’t seen a team play as we go into Week 2, but that is precisely the case with the Dolphins. Meanwhile, the Chargers are on a short week after playing on Monday night against the Broncos. The Chargers defense showed some vulnerability against Trevor Siemian last week, but it’ll be interesting to see if Jay Cutler can stay upright with their intense pass rush. The Dolphins offensive line is nowhere near what the Broncos is, so this could get ugly for them. The Dolphins are without starting safety T.J. McDonald until Week 9, leaving them vulnerable deep over the middle of the field. Normally I’d say the Chargers run away with this game (still think they win), but it’ll be interesting to see if the extra time to game-plan did anything for the Dolphins.

QBs: As mentioned above, the Dolphins offensive line is going to have issues stopping Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, which puts Jay Cutler in a bad spot. He’s never been the type to handle pressure well, and I suspect he’ll be under a lot of it come Sunday. Because of that, he’s just a low-end QB2 against the Chargers, who have allowed just seven passing scores in their last seven games. They also led the NFL in interceptions with 18, something Cutler has had issues with in the past. On the other side of the field, Philip Rivers will be throwing at a defense that allowed 19 passing touchdowns in their last eight games of 2016, which included matchups with Jared Goff, Colin Kaepernick, and Bryce Petty. There were just six quarterbacks who threw more than 34 pass attempts against them last year, but there were just four quarterbacks from Week 7-17 who didn’t score at least 20.0 DraftKings points against them. Rivers is a QB1 in this matchup and safe to use in cash lineups.

RBs: This game brings me back to Jay Ajayi‘s splits from last year where he was great in games the Dolphins won and horrific in the games they lost. Here there are below:

If you like the Chargers in this game, you cannot like Ajayi too much. With that being said, this game should remain somewhat competitive, so I’ll consider Ajayi a low-end RB1. Even if all goes well for the Dolphins, the Chargers have not allowed a running back to eclipse 82 rushing yards since back Week 17 of 2015. They did, however, allow 18 rushing touchdowns in 2016, including at least one in 12 of 16 games. Damien Williams is a completely off-the-charts tournament play, as the Chargers really struggled with pass catching running backs last year, allowing over six catches per game to them. He’s not to be used in season-long leagues, but at the risk that the Chargers blow them out, Williams could rack up points in PPR formats, like DraftKings. Melvin Gordon went right back to his workhorse role against the Broncos in Week 1 totaling 23 touches, 79 total yards and a touchdown. The Dolphins are middle of the pack against running backs, but excelled where Gordon did last year – touchdowns. They allowed just seven rushing touchdowns all year. They did play against each other last year where Gordon struggled on the ground (24 carries, 70 yards), but did snag five receptions for 62 yards. He’s in the same territory as Ajayi this week, but I’d bet on Ajayi scoring a touchdown over Gordon. Brandin Oliver returned to action, but saw just four touches – he shouldn’t be considered anywhere.

WRs: This is not the week to project a DeVante Parker breakout, as he’ll be matched up with Casey Hayward and Jason Verrett about 75 percent of the time, as will Kenny Stills. That cornerback duo held Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders to just eight catches for 93 scoreless yards combined in Week 1. Consider Parker just a WR4 this week with better days to come, while Stills is just a WR5/6 type option. The best matchup of the week goes to Jarvis Landry who will get former undrafted Trevor Williams in coverage. He’s a 6’1″ cornerback who isn’t built to hang with a shifty wide receiver like Landry. Consider him a rock solid WR2 in all formats who could post WR1 numbers in PPR leagues. Tyrell Williams ran as the clear-cut No. 1 wide receiver on the perimeter, playing 54 of a possible 58 snaps on Monday night. He’s going to be a factor in fantasy leagues throughout the season and actually matches up well against Xavien Howard, who allowed over 16 yards per reception in 2016. Add in the fact that they’re missing their top safety and you have yourself a high-upside WR3. Keenan Allen saw a massive 10 targets against a tough Broncos secondary and although he totaled just 35 yards, his touchdown was game-saving. He’ll have more room to operate against the Dolphins, so feel good about starting him as a WR2. Travis Benjamin is going to be the new Malcom Floyd, in case you didn’t know. He carried his momentum from the preseason where he scored two touchdowns into the regular season, scoring against the Broncos for the second time in the last two games they’ve played. He’s a boom or bust WR5 in most weeks and this matchup is no different.

TEs: The Dolphins reportedly “have a few plays designed specifically for Julius Thomas,” which is not news because it would be odd if they didn’t call his name 4-5 times per game. But the fact that they felt the need to announce that is good to hear because they did trade for him. Adam Gase has a tight end-friendly system, as evidenced by Dion Sims scoring four touchdowns over the final six games in 2016. The Chargers were the team Thomas had his biggest game (yardage-wise) against in 2016, totaling four catches for 71 yards. They have other things to worry about on the Dolphins offense, making Thomas a solid high-end TE2 this week who has streaming potential. For those who touted Hunter Henry all offseason, I’m sorry (looking at you, Bobby). He played just 23 of 58 snaps against the Broncos, while Antonio Gates played 38 snaps. While I liked Gates more than Henry in Week 1, I didn’t suspect Henry would be target-less. Still, at tight end, you are betting on touchdowns, so there is still appeal in Henry. Here is a list of the tight ends who saw more than five targets against the Dolphins last year, along with their points in a PPR format:

Antonio Gates is likely going to break the touchdown record in this game, so I’d consider him a low-end TE1 for season-long leagues and an interesting play in DFS. If you’d like to go contrarian, Henry isn’t a bad low-owned tournament option, but Gates is likely the one you want here.

Prediction: Chargers 27, Dolphins 20

Dallas Cowboys (-1.5) at Denver Broncos Over/Under: 42.0

The Vegas line-setters are really trying to rattle me now. After they were favored against the Giants (a team that beat them in both meetings last year) at home, and won, they are really pushing it with them giving 1.5 points to the Broncos on the road. There were just three times the Broncos allowed more than 23 points to an opponent last year and both of them were divisional opponents who knew the defense well. Considering the low total, it’s expected to be a defensive battle and one that the Cowboys are expected to win? It should remain a competitive game throughout, though it definitely helps that the Cowboys will have Ezekiel Elliott on the field.

QBs: It was a great Week 1 performance by Dak Prescott, as he totaled 17.12 fantasy points against a Giants team that held him to just 16.98 fantasy points in their two meetings combined last year. He did that while they kept Dez Bryant in check the entire game, too. He’ll need to pull more rabbits out of hats against the Broncos, who have held 13 of the last 17 quarterbacks they’ve played to 15 fantasy points or less. Consider Prescott a QB2 this week, simply because he’s proven to be one of the more consistent quarterbacks in football. It’s also worth noting that Dez Bryant won’t see Aqib Talib and Chris Harris Jr. all game (read below). Trevor Siemian put on a good show opening night against a solid Chargers defense, so the Cowboys shouldn’t pose much of a problem. The fact that he was able to post 22 fantasy points while his two best options (Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders) were held in check says a lot about his potential. He’s a solid play in 2QB leagues this week, though I wouldn’t expect another 22-point performance. It’s highly unlikely that Siemian runs for another touchdown over the next eight games.

RBs: You’re going to want to start Ezekiel Elliott in this contest. Look past the Broncos name, because they’ve struggled to contain running backs over the last 15 games, allowing seven different running backs to reach at least 88 yards on the ground. Not just that, but Elliott was said to be used in the passing game a lot more, and they delivered. Elliott caught five passes in Week 1, something he didn’t do one time in 2016. He’s an elite RB1 in this game. It seems that the Cowboys will trot Alfred Morris out there as a backup to Elliott, though McFadden would be the guy if Elliott was inactive. Regardless, you aren’t playing either of them right now. The Broncos said they wanted to run the ball and they backed it up, running the ball 30 times between C.J. Anderson and Jamaal Charles. Don’t let what happened to Paul Perkins scare you off using Anderson in this game, as the Broncos offensive line was among the most improved this offseason. Anderson isn’t an RB1 or anything, as the Cowboys didn’t allow a single running back top 86 rushing yards against them last year and Anderson isn’t highly used in the passing game. He’s strictly a volume RB2 in this matchup, though he should have a few opportunities to score. Charles looked solid in his Broncos debut, but isn’t going to take the job away from Anderson. Consider him an RB4 for now, though he’ll look better in games where the Broncos can control the clock. The Cowboys allowed just 63 plays per game last year and allowed just 53 plays in Week 1, meaning the Broncos won’t run 69 plays like they did in Week 1.

WRs: Can’t say that I didn’t warn you about Dez Bryant last week, as the Giants, and specifically Janoris Jenkins, have his number. The matchup isn’t much better this week, though it is slightly. The Broncos secondary hasn’t allowed a wide receiver to top 77 yards since Week 1 of last year. You’d have to go back to 2015 to see the last time they allowed a 100-yard wide receiver. However, the Broncos do not shadow, which means Bryant will see a lot of Bradley Roby, which is the lesser of the three evils in the Broncos secondary. It’s also possible that the loss of T.J. Ward hurts this defense more than most cared to admit, as they allowed two wide receiver touchdowns in Week 1 after allowing just seven the entire 2016 season. Consider Bryant a WR2 this week. You shouldn’t contemplate starting any other Cowboys wide receiver this week. Just one week after being held in check by Jason Verrett, Demaryius Thomas will have a much better matchup this week against Anthony Brown and Nolan Carroll on the perimeter. It should also be noted that Orlando Scandrick (was supposed to start) broke his hand in Week 1 and will likely be out for this game. Considering Siemian targeted him eight times against the Chargers, you shouldn’t be shy about using him as a WR2 in this contest. Emmanuel Sanders isn’t a bad start, either, as he was just a few inches away from catching a touchdown on Casey Heyward last week. Thomas is the preferred one, but Sanders is a solid WR3 in this matchup. Bennie Fowler was utilized last week due to the matchups, but he shouldn’t be on your season-long radar.

TEs: It appears that Jason Witten still does, in fact, have some gas left in the tank. I mentioned last week that he continually buries the Giants, but the Broncos aren’t a team where we can go off historical data. They just shut down the combination of Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry, which isn’t exactly the best outlook. Going back to last year, they did allow two massive games to Travis Kelce, but Witten doesn’t profile like he does. In fact, they struggled against athletic types at wide receiver last year, which doesn’t exactly fit Witten at this point in his career. Consider him a middling TE2 in this matchup. The Broncos tight end situation was cleared up a bit this past week, as Virgil Green led them in snaps, but ran just 12 pass routes. Meanwhile, the more talented A.J. Derby ran routes on 22 of his 29 snaps and led the tight ends in targets (3). If you want to play one, it’s Derby. The Cowboys actually allowed the most fantasy points to tight ends last year and allowed Evan Engram to total four catches for 44 yards in his first NFL game. Derby shouldn’t need to be used in season-long, but he makes me an interesting off-the-radar tournament option.

Prediction: Broncos 23, Cowboys 21