Whew, what an adventure it was going through an entire slate of games last week. It seemed like we’d be talking about the 2016 season forever, but no, not anymore. I’ll still reference last season at times because, after all, it’s still just one game that we’ve seen. That’s right, don’t go trading away Le’Veon Bell for Kareem Hunt because of what happened in Week 1.
Speaking of what happened in Week 1, I want to personally thank all of you for supporting this article as much as you did. Each time you share or mention this article, the more ammunition I have to go back to my bosses and tell them that we need to make this a long tradition. Many of you told me that you appreciate all the time I put into it, and that’s what means the most. And no, my wife has not left me. To my knowledge, anyway. I’ve been in my office for the last 12 days. But seriously, thank you for your support.
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With that being said, if this is your first time reading this, I want to give you an idea as to what you should expect. Knowledge, facts, stats, numbers… lots of numbers. The idea is to give you so much knowledge that you’ll feel better than ever when you hit that ‘submit lineup’ button. “The Primer” will be here for you every single week of the NFL season, where we’ll dive into every game, talking about every fantasy relevant player. Once done reading it each week, you should have a better idea as to how the game should go, as well as an idea as to who you should be playing in season-long and who to target in DFS. All games are in order of the time they are taking place, with the Thursday game first and Monday night game last.
*Keep in mind that the game lines and totals may change as the games approach. All of my up-to-date rankings can be found right here.
Buffalo Bills at Carolina Panthers (-7.0) Over/Under: 42.5
These two teams get their first real competition of the season in Week 2 as the Bills played the No. 1 pick-bound Jets and the Panthers made easy work of the rebuilding 49ers in Week 1. The weaknesses of the Bills were not exposed in Week 1, as Josh McCown looked depressing and then you had Matt Forte playing more snaps than Bilal Powell. They lost quite a few starters on their defense from last year, including their two starting cornerbacks. One of the replacements is E.J. Gaines, who left Week 1 with a shoulder injury. It’s up in the air on whether or not he’ll be able to play this game. The Panthers may get defensive tackle Vernon Butler back, which would be nice in their attempt to slow down LeSean McCoy.
QBs: It looked like Tyrod Taylor was well over his concussion in Week 1, as he threw for 224 yards and a touchdown against the Jets, and then ran for another 38 yards, finishing as the No. 4 fantasy quarterback in Sunday’s contests. This matchup will be a bit trickier, as the Panthers didn’t allow a quarterback to rush for more than 29 yards in any game last year and have allowed just one quarterback to top 17.4 fantasy points since Week 8 of last year. The fact that they contain quarterbacks so well is cause for concern, and enough to knock Taylor down out of the top-15 quarterback plays this week. Cam Newton looked pretty bad in the first half of the 49ers game, but it may have had to do with knocking some of the rust off his surgery. He did throw just two passes the entire preseason, after all. This matchup with the Bills should be a great one, especially if Gaines were forced to miss the game. The Bills allowed six multi-passing touchdown performances in the final nine weeks of 2016, and actually every quarterback not named Ben Roethlisberger to score at least 15 fantasy points against them from Weeks 5-17. The only concern is that Newton rushed for just three yards, the third-lowest total of his career. If this is a sign of things to come, his fantasy floor has gotten lower. Still, I’d consider him a solid low-end QB1 this week with a high ceiling.
RBs: Raise your hand if you were flustered at the fact that LeSean McCoy lost his goal line touches to Mike Tolbert. While frustrating, the only time Tolbert scored was when McCoy actually pulled himself out of the game with what looked to be an injury as he winced over in pain on the sideline. He was back the next series, suggesting everything is okay. This matchup isn’t as pristine as the one against the Jets, as the Panthers allowed just 3.79 yards per carry last year and started out the year holding Kyle Shanahan’s running backs in check. The 49ers offense only netted 57 snaps in Week 1 against the ball-control Panthers, which lowers the ceiling for McCoy’s touch count. By comparison, the Bills ran 77 plays in Week 1 against the Jets. You’re still starting McCoy as an RB1, but he’s not a must-play in DFS as he was last week. Tolbert is just a touchdown-dependent fantasy option that I wouldn’t feel comfortable rostering in fantasy leagues outside of TD-only formats. Christian McCaffrey saw a whopping 18 touches in his debut, but totaled just 85 scoreless yards against the worst run defense from 2016. Of the 16 running backs who saw 17 or more touches against the 49ers in 2016, there was just one who didn’t score at least 11 standard fantasy points: Todd Gurley. The overall usage was encouraging, but we have to limit expectations for a guy who won’t get any goal-line work. He’ll need to break big plays to live up to where he was drafted. Consider him a solid RB2 this week, though, as the Bills are a matchup to target in all formats. Jonathan Stewart did in fact take over the goal-line duties, but maybe more importantly, he was involved in the passing game and even scored a receiving touchdown. He caught two passes in Week 1, something he did just once in all of 2016. Consider him an RB3 option against the Bills.
WRs: As it turns out, Zay Jones is the No. 2 wide receiver opposite Jordan Matthews, as he played 66/77 snaps against the Jets, which is promising for his outlook. He actually led the wide receivers with four targets, though he hauled just one of them in. It’ll be a tougher matchup this week, though they are likely to pass a bit more against the Panthers. He’ll see the most of the Panthers top cornerback James Bradberry, though Bradberry hasn’t shadowed in the past. Considering he’ll see Daryl Worley in coverage as well, it makes him a tad more interesting as a WR4/5 option. Until we see him and Taylor gel, it’s tough to start him in season-long leagues. Matthews played the most snaps among the Bills wide receivers, showing that he is healthy. He caught two of his three targets for 61 yards, including a 47-yard catch-and-run. He’s just a WR4 until we see volume increase for the passing game. I talked about it last week, saying that the Panthers wide receivers were risky considering Newton’s time off and potentially run-heavy game-plan. That all came to fruition and Kelvin Benjamin finished with just one catch for 25 yards against one of the worst secondaries in all of football. He did see five targets (20 percent target share), so he’s still in play as a WR2 in a matchup with the Bills. If Gaines can’t go, the Bills will have to trot out Shareece Wright at RCB, who was a matchup to target all of last season when he was with the Ravens. Upgrade Benjamin to a rock-solid WR2 if Gaines is ruled out. Devin Funchess did in fact play all the snaps possible at wide receiver, but was targeted just twice for 20 yards. Until we see him see 4-6 targets consistently, he’s just a dart-throw in lineups, though he can score two touchdowns any given week. You could do worse as an off-the-radar tournament play.
TEs: If you didn’t see me post it on Twitter, here are the numbers that Charles Clay has posted in his last four games with Tyrod Taylor under center: 32 targets, 22 receptions, 262 yards, and five touchdowns. He’s an excellent streaming option in good matchups, and this is another one of those weeks. The Panthers allowed 11 tight ends to reach double-digit scoring in PPR formats, including five of them with 14.5 or more points. Keep in mind that Clay is also the only pass-catcher that Taylor has on the roster from last year. Consider him a solid streamer once again this week, who should post low-end TE1 numbers given the matchup. With the way the season ended for Greg Olsen last year, you’d hoped that it would get off to a better start in 2017. Dating back to last year, Olsen has totaled just 418 yards and no touchdowns in his last nine games played. The Bills allowed touchdowns to just two tight ends last year and their names were Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham. While Olsen belongs in the conversation for best tight ends, he doesn’t score touchdowns like those guys do. Until Newton re-establishes himself, consider Olsen just a middling TE1.
Prediction: Panthers 27, Bills 17
Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5) Over/Under: 43.0
It was somewhat of a surprise to see the Bears in competition with the Falcons, but it came down to the final seconds where the Bears should have won that game, but the pass-catchers let down Mike Glennon dropping two balls in the endzone on the final drive. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers had their bye in Week 1 due to the hurricane coming through Florida. This game will be played in Tampa Bay, so the field may not be in its best shape. Pay attention the weekly rankings (link at the top of this article) because this game is highly affected by the weather. There are multiple injuries on the Bears side, as their best linebacker Jerrell Freeman was placed on IR, and then both Pro Bowl guard Kyle Long and cornerback Prince Amukamara missed the Week 1 game entirely.
QBs: You didn’t want to start Mike Glennon when he had Cameron Meredith and Kevin White, and you definitely don’t want to start him without those two. He played a game manager-type game against the Falcons and that was fine, but don’t expect much more than his 213 yards and one touchdown he provided in that game. He’s not a top-20 quarterback this week. The fact that the Buccaneers have had two weeks to prepare for this game is massive and should only help Jameis Winston provide QB1 value, provided the field isn’t too bad. The Bears weakest point is their secondary and if Freeman were to miss this game, their pass-rush will suffer. Just last year, the Bears allowed an average of over 20 DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks, but just 13.9 points per game while at home. Winston makes for an interesting tournament play and should be used confidently in season-long leagues, especially if Freeman is out.
RBs: The Bears backfield is muddier than anyone expected now that Tarik Cohen has forced his way onto the field. Jordan Howard is going to handle a majority of the early-down work, but his hands are going to lose him snaps to Cohen. On the final drive of the game, Glennon hit Howard right in both hands in what should have been the game-winning touchdown, but he just flat-out dropped it. The Buccaneers defense allowed just two running backs to top 90 rushing yards last year, but they did allow 12 rushing touchdowns, making Howard a low-end RB1 despite the presence of Cohen, though it would help if Kyle Long got back into the lineup. Cohen himself saw 12 targets in Week 1, which was more than all but five wide receivers, and considering Benny Cunningham had to be carted off, his usage will remain heavy in the passing game. Consider him a Darren Sproles-esque player for the Bears, so he’s definitely in play for your RB3/flex spot in season-long leagues, especially PPR formats where he might just be an RB2 option. We all know about Doug Martin‘s suspension, so it’ll be Jacquizz Rodgers‘ backfield in Week 1. The Bears front-seven was underrated this offseason and it showed in Week 1 when they held Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman to just 53 yards on 20 carries, but losing Jerrell Freeman is a massive blow. Rodgers is definitely in play as an RB2, as he averaged 21.4 carries per game when he started in 2016. While I don’t expect that volume with Charles Sims healthy, he should still touch the ball at least 15 times. Speaking of Sims, he should be looked at as a desperation flex-play in PPR leagues. It’s quite possible that he returns to the role he had in 2015 when he finished with almost 1,100 total yards, though I wouldn’t count on it.
WRs: With Meredith and White out for the season, the Bears wide receivers have the look of a fourth-quarter preseason game with the exception of Kendall Wright. He was actually third on the team in snaps at wide receiver, behind both White and Deonte Thompson. Consider Wright the only one to consider in season-long leagues, as he should lead them in targets. He will match-up with either Robert McClain or Javien Elliott out of the slot (played 60 percent of his snaps there in Week 1) and it’s the best matchup of the Buccaneers cornerbacks, as Thompson will see a lot of Brent Grimes. Wright is a WR4 who should see a minimum of five targets in this matchup. Thompson is a veteran receiver who has been around since 2012, but has never seen more than 36 targets in a season. If you picked him up off waivers, it’s best to sit him. Mike Evans will match-up with a combination of Amukamara and Marcus Cooper, which is a good thing. The Cardinals let Cooper walk this offseason despite not having a solid cornerback to replace him, while Amukamara missed Week 1 and may not be 100 percent even if he does play. Evans should be locked into season-long leagues and if the weather cooperates, he should be in plenty of DFS lineups. DeSean Jackson is interesting as a boom-or-bust WR3 option most weeks and the matchup here is no different. The Bears combination of rookie Eddie Jackson and newly-acquired Quintin Demps aren’t a duo that teams will avoid, so start Jackson if you’re trying to decide between him and someone who’s also in the WR3 conversation.
TEs: We tried to figure out who the Bears would use at tight end, but as it turns out, they are using a lot of 2TE sets, as evidenced by the 48 snaps for Dion Sims and 40 snaps for Zach Miller. But when it comes to fantasy, Miller is the tight end you’ll want to play (if you want to play one of them). Despite playing eight fewer snaps, he ran four more pass routes than Sims. The Buccaneers were somewhat of a hit-or-miss matchup for tight ends last year, allowing multiple tight ends to go for 100 yards, but all-in-all, they allowed just the 24th most fantasy points to the position. Still, with all the receiving options the Bears are down, Miller is a somewhat solid TE2 going forward, including this week as the Bears try and figure out life without a No. 1 wide receiver. The Buccaneers are another team we’ve gone back and forth on, trying to figure out who the starter is, though if you’re betting on one, go with the veteran Cameron Brate. We all know that rookie tight ends have a bad track record, especially when there is a somewhat-proven tight end already on the roster. The Bears are coming off a game where they allowed Austin Hooper 128 yards and a touchdown, but almost all of that came on one play where Hooper forced multiple missed tackles. Last year, this defense allowed just three tight ends to total more than 50 yards, making it a week where you should take the whole ‘wait-and-see’ approach.
Prediction: Buccaneers 27, Bears 20
Minnesota Vikings at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.0) Over/Under: 45.5
If you watched the Monday night game, you likely don’t understand how the Vikings could be almost a seven-point underdog. Granted, this line will likely move down as the week goes on, but this is Vegas telling you that they think the Steelers win big. It’s notable that the Steelers are at home at Heinz Field where they scored 28.4 points per game last year where they had a record of 6-2. The Vikings were actually just 3-5 on the road and allowed 2.4 more points per game than they did at home. This is likely to be one of the more targeted games from a DFS standpoint.
QBs: Sam Bradford looked as good as I’ve ever seen him on Monday night, lighting up the Saints defense in whatever way he wanted. Granted, it was the Saints defense, but he was making all the throws. No quarterback threw for more than two touchdowns against the Steelers last year, so don’t expect him to replicate the Saints game. In what is projected as a high-scoring game, Bradford still profiles well as a QB2 this week who you should expect to finish with roughly 275 yards and 1-2 touchdowns. On the other side of the field, we’ve learned by now that you start Ben Roethlisberger at home. There were six games he played in Heinz Field last year and in those games, he totaled no less than 17.6 fantasy points, and averaged 27.6 fantasy points. Keep in mind that doesn’t include any bonuses and it’s just four point passing touchdowns. The Vikings allowed only Aaron Rodgers to throw for more than 271 yards against them last year, and just held Drew Brees to 291 yards on Monday night, so his ceiling may be slightly limited. Consider Roethlisberger a safe low-end QB1 this week despite the tough matchup.
RBs: There are a lot of people excited about Dalvin Cook, and while I understand that he’s a workhorse, dial back your enthusiasm just a bit. Before his final carry of the game that went for 33 yards, he had 94 yards on 21 carries… against the Saints. He finished the game with 137 total yards, which is solid, though he didn’t score. He wasn’t bad by any means, but he also wasn’t as impressive as Kareem Hunt or Leonard Fournette. The Steelers will likely be without defensive end Stephon Tuitt, who is particularly good against the run, making Cook an intriguing low-end RB1 in what should be a higher scoring contest. No other Vikings running back should be owned in fantasy leagues. It was not Le’Veon Bell‘s week to shine in Week 1, as the Steelers severely limited his workload against the Browns. Consider him a must-start this week against the Vikings, who got worse against the run as the season went on in 2016. The Saints never gave their running game a chance in Week 1, but the Steelers can now take Bell out of timeout. If he finishes this game with any less than 100 total yards and a touchdown, consider it a failure. James Conner appears to be his direct backup, so at least we know if something were to happen to Bell, he’d be the top pick-up. He has no value in season-long leagues or DFS without a Bell injury.
WRs: It was quite the performance for Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen on Monday night, as they combined for 15 receptions for 250 yards and two touchdowns on 18 targets. The Steelers aren’t as easy as the Saints, but they also aren’t scary by any means. The Steelers signed Joe Haden once the Browns cut him and then proceeded to trade away Ross Cockrell, who was arguably their best cornerback in 2016. The toughest matchup here goes to the slot receiver, as William Gay is one of the better slot corners in the game. In Week 1, Thielen drew the slot role nearly 75 percent of the time, meaning Diggs is the wide receiver you want to target this week. He’ll see a lot of Haden who was just destroyed by the Browns receivers for seven catches and 109 yards on 10 targets in coverage. Whether Diggs lines up at RWR or LWR, he’ll get either Haden or Artie Burns, who is also a below-average NFL starting cornerback. Diggs is teetering on WR1 status again this week. You don’t have to avoid Thielen, but consider him a WR3 this week. Laquon Treadwell appears to have the No. 3 job, but until he starts seeing targets, he cannot be trusted, even in a good matchup. Antonio Brown was a monster in Week 1 and was the only Steelers offensive player to really show up. He’ll see a lot of the Vikings top cornerback Xavier Rhodes this week, who kept Michael Thomas in check in Week 1. You are never sitting Brown in season-long, but I’d be a little light on him in DFS this week. Martavis Bryant could have a blow-up sort of game while matched up with a mix of Trae Waynes and 39-year-old Terence Newman, making him a solid WR2 who is more reliable than usual in this home game. Eli Rogers is always an interesting tournament punt-play when the Steelers are at home, especially when Brown has the matchup he does. He’s still just a WR5 in season-long, though.
TEs: It wasn’t a great matchup for Kyle Rudolph against the Saints, but he came through when he scored a touchdown. His matchup this week is slightly better, as the Steelers aren’t known to be a matchup to run from for tight ends. While they try and figure out the strengths and weaknesses (Haden) of their secondary, Rudolph may go overlooked. He’s a rock-solid TE1 nearly every week and this one is no different. Do not go chasing Jesse James‘ two-touchdown game against the Browns. Now repeat that back to me. Glad we got that out of the way. The Vikings will have their hands full with the Steelers wide receivers, so he’s not the worst tournament play until we see Vance McDonald play a bigger role (played just 18 snaps compared to James’ 54 snaps). Still, he’s not someone I would debate in season-long leagues unless I was desperate.
Prediction: Steelers 27, Vikings 20
