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Week 2 Primer: Analyzing All 16 Games (Fantasy Football)

Week 2 Primer: Analyzing All 16 Games (Fantasy Football)

Arizona Cardinals (-7.5) at Indianapolis Colts Over/Under: 44.5

This game looks a whole lot less interesting now that we know David Johnson and Andrew Luck will not be taking part in it, eh? You can only imagine how bad the Cardinals players had it during the week after their defense allowed 35 points and their offense could only muster up 23 points against a lackluster Lions defense. There is an interesting dynamic to this matchup, as Bruce Arians will return to Indianapolis, where he used to coach. The Colts will be without Luck, center Ryan Kelley, and top cornerback Vontae Davis, making it an odd one where the road team (Cardinals) are favored by more than a touchdown.

QBs: Yes, everything you heard about Carson Palmer last week was probably true. However, you need to shake that off because he’ll be going against a Colts defense that just allowed Jared Goff to finish as a top-five quarterback while throwing for more than 300 yards. It can be argued that David Johnson actually hampered Palmer’s success as a passer. Before you scoff at that notion, let me explain. After Palmer lost John Brown and Jaron Brown to injury, and then Michael Floyd to… just being bad, he started to turn into a check-down quarterback, and one who relied on Johnson to do everything after the catch. While this worked because Johnson is an elite talent, Palmer has become wildly inconsistent when throwing deep. This matchup is as good as it gets for him to right the ship, so fire him up as a low-end QB1 once again, unless of course you have a proven quarterback to play instead. Don’t even consider starting Scott Tolzien or Jacoby Brissett in this matchup, it’ll just hurt your head.

RBs: It seems as if the Cardinals will deploy a timeshare at running back, though Kerwynn Williams would be the best bet for the majority of touches. He was the one who came into the game and got the goal-line carry (which he converted for a touchdown) when Johnson went down. Unless the Cardinals add someone of significance (Chris Johnson doesn’t count) in the next few days, he should be looked at as a solid flex-play in a matchup that should produce plenty of points. Andre Ellington is going to provide value in PPR leagues throughout this season, but this isn’t one of the matchups that fits his game-script. He saw a lot more work once the Cardinals fell behind against the Lions and that shouldn’t happen in this contest. He’s not worth anything more than a RB4 in PPR leagues this week. Chris Johnson should stay on benches this week, as I doubt he plays a major role. It appears that the arrival of Marlon Mack came sooner than expected for fantasy owners, though you should wait to see him get significant work again before considering him in fantasy leagues. With the offense struggling without Luck, it’s unlikely that any Colts running back will provide value, and that includes Frank Gore, who should be considered bench-material against a Cardinals defense that just held the spry-Ameer Abdullah to just 30 yards on 15 carries last week, which picked up from where they left off in 2016 when they allowed just 3.3 yards per carry.

WRs: After losing David Johnson, there is a whole lot of work to be distributed, as he accounted for 25.8 carries/targets per game in 2016. Because of that, Larry Fitzgerald is going to be a busy man in Week 2. Not just that, but his matchup really doesn’t get any better, as he’ll line up across from the trio of T.J. Green/Nate Hairston/Rashaan Melvin, who combined to allow the Rams trio of wide receivers 12 receptions for 187 yards and a touchdown last week on just 16 combined targets. Fitzgerald didn’t go bananas against the Lions, which means his ownership should be suppressed in DFS, making him a great post-hype target. He also needs to be locked in as a high-end WR2 in season-long leagues. John Brown was targeted seven times in Week 1, which bodes well for his role in this offense. He’s not someone you can just lock into lineups like Fitzgerald this week, but he definitely deserves consideration as a WR3 in this matchup, and makes for a great tournament option who’ll be less than five percent owned Editor’s Note: John Brown was declared OUT for week 2’s game on Friday. J.J. Nelson isn’t really an option outside of a punt-play, as he played 29/75 snaps in Week 1 and was the No. 4 wide receiver behind Jaron Brown. I mentioned last week that you shouldn’t automatically put Colts wide receivers in your lineup because of where you drafted them and that remains true in Week 2. T.Y. Hilton is nothing more than a WR4 in a matchup with Patrick Peterson, while Donte Moncrief is just a WR5 who needs a touchdown to give you any results. It was interesting to see Jacoby Brissett heave the ball up to Moncrief as nothing more than a jump ball, but it could have been a one-off type situation. You likely have higher upside risky options than the Colts wide receivers.

TEs: There are likely some new-found targets for boring tight end play Jermaine Gresham, who actually had a stretch of eight straight games in 2016 where he totaled at least 32 yards. Not that those totals will win you a week, but he kind of went unnoticed because he never topped 52 yards in any of those games. With Johnson out, Gresham is a legit option in 2TE leagues. He isn’t going to have a 100-yard, two-touchdown game any time soon (or ever), but he’ll get back into that 3-5 catch for 30-60-yard range. This matchup is a good one, too, as the Colts were among the worst teams in the league against tight ends last year, allowing 11.5 or more PPR points to nine of the 16 they faced, including three 20-plus point games. Jack Doyle fits into the conversation of Colts pass catchers that you likely have better options than, including guys like Charles Clay or Coby Fleener. You just don’t want any part of a tight end whose offense might score 17 points per week. This will change once Luck comes back, but Doyle belongs on waiver wires right now.

Prediction: Cardinals 28, Colts 17

New England Patriots (-6.5) at New Orleans Saints Over/Under: 54.5

Who wants to go against the Patriots after they just lost on their home field in the season opener? The Saints are “lucky” enough to get that matchup, though it is better that they’re at home for it. This game easily has the highest over/under of the week, intending there will be plenty of fantasy scoring to go around. Considering the Patriots lack of pass rush and the Saints secondary that just allowed Sam Bradford to look like Aaron Rodgers, it makes sense. On the injury front, the Patriots will likely be without both wide receiver Danny Amendola and linebacker Dont’a Hightower, while the Saints will be without their top cornerback Delvin Breauz and two starting offensive tackles, as both Terron Armstead and Zach Strief are out for a few weeks. Let the fireworks begin.

QBs: While it was just one game, Tom Brady looked brutal against the Chiefs last week. He’s never had the arm strength of someone like Jay Cutler, but he’s always had great touch with pinpoint accuracy. He lacked that in Week 1, but he’s earned more than enough trust to consider that a fluke and that he’ll likely return to form. What better way to do that against a team that has allowed 13 of the last 17 quarterbacks to play against them to throw for at least 7.1 yards per attempt. Brady is an elite QB1 in this contest and it’d be hard for me to say he isn’t the No. 1 this week. I’m sure Drew Brees will have something to say about that, as he’s also coming off a loss in which the Saints offense simply couldn’t move the ball effectively. Brees didn’t play poorly, though, so there’s no reason to be worried about him. The concern is that he’ll still be without Willie Snead (suspension) and the Patriots will try to take away his No. 1 option in Michael Thomas. Because of that, Brees is a tick lower than Brady, but he’s still a high-end QB1 at home.

RBs: The Patriots sifted through their running backs all game in Week 1, with only James White playing more than 24 snaps. White played a massive 43 snaps, which should tell you that he’ll be worth a weekly flex-play, at minimum. This matchup bodes well for him, too, as the Saints have allowed eight running backs to rack up at least 43 receiving yards in their last 15 games, including 80-plus yards to three of them. Consider White a high-upside RB3/flex play. Mike Gillislee is the new LeGarrette Blount of the offense, guys. The fact that he scored three touchdowns in a game that Brady was off his game says a lot. Blount needed positive game-scripts to do well, where Gillislee didn’t in his first game. He was also the No. 2 running back in snaps with 24 of them, while Rex Burkhead played just 10 and Dion Lewis played six snaps. Consider Gillislee a strong RB2 any time they aren’t playing an elite run defense. The Saints are not an elite run defense, and in fact, they are among the worst in the league. Gillislee can safely be used in season-long and DFS. Would it surprise anyone if Burkhead played 20 snaps this week? Because of that, he’s worth a desperation spot-start if you’re missing David Johnson, Doug Martin, etc. The Saints backfield is just as much of a mess as the Patriots in Week 1, but we know that didn’t work. Look for them to run the ball a bit more consistently with Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson this week. That doesn’t exactly mean to start Peterson with confidence. I mean, he played just nine snaps in his first game. Consider him a touchdown-dependent RB4 until we see him stay on the field. Ingram will be a nice option who’s going to be under-owned in DFS. The fact that he fits any game-script is perfect and I’d argue that he should be considered a solid RB2 in this game against a Hightower-less Patriots run defense that was just gouged by Kareem Hunt (in his first NFL game) and Charcandrick West. Alvin Kamara surprisingly played the most snaps among the Saints running backs, so he deserves RB4 consideration in a game that’s projected to be high-scoring, especially in PPR formats.

WRs: We are down to Brandin Cooks and Chris Hogan as starter-worthy wide receivers on the Patriots team now that Malcolm Mitchell and Danny Amendola are on the shelf. It seems like Phillip Dorsett will play as the No. 3 wide receiver, though we have no confirmation on that at this time. Cooks is a must-start against his former team in both season-long and DFS. No matter who you have on your team, he needs to be in there against a defense that just got demolished by Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen who combined for 15 receptions for 250 yards and two touchdowns on 18 targets. Chris Hogan was a disappointment against the Chiefs, despite being on the field for 73 of 81 snaps and matching up with backup cornerback Phillip Gaines a majority of the time. He needs to be a bigger part of this offense if they want to move the ball, so consider him a WR3 with upside for more against the Saints. Dorsett is a solid dart in tournaments, but you should have better options than him in season long. It’s going to be another tough matchup for Michael Thomas, as he’ll draw Malcolm Butler and Stephon Gilmore in coverage 80 percent of the time. He’s good enough to be started as a WR2, but you have to temper expectations in a matchup with the Patriots, who often attempt to shut down the opposing No. 1, even if it requires safety help. Because of that, Ted Ginn is a solid play this week as a WR3. Brandon Coleman is also worth a flier in tournaments, as he drew the slot role for the Saints in Week 1, running 19 of his 29 routes from the slot. If Brees is going to throw multiple touchdown passes, they have to go somewhere, right? While Tommylee Lewis is electric, he played just eight snaps in Week 1, making him just a desperation tournament option.

TEs: Can we stop talking about Rob Gronkowski like he’s a regular human being? Seriously though, his Week 1 would have looked a lot different if that touchdown wouldn’t have been overturned. He was shadowed by one of the best safeties over the last 10 years (Eric Berry) in that game, but things change in Week 2 when he matches up with the Saints, who aren’t bad in their own right, but aren’t an impenetrable force or anything. They are coming off a game where they held Kyle Rudolph to just three catches for 26 yards, though one of them was for a touchdown. Gronk is not human and is a must-start everywhere. Dwayne Allen may actually be asked to play a bigger role than intended with all the injuries, which makes him an interesting tournament play, though you shouldn’t have him in many lineups. I laughed as Coby Fleener looked phenomenal on Monday night, thinking, “Man, this is a year too late, Coby.” My wife knew about my love for Fleener last year and she just looked at me and said, “Are you okay?” It was comical to me and after I said yes, she followed that up with, “Are you sure?” Seriously, though, he looked really good and is definitely on the map against a Patriots team that will be busy focusing their attention elsewhere. Yes, they shut down Travis Kelce in Week 1, but that was the intention all along as he had coverage even when he was kept in to block. He was the No. 1 option, whereas Fleener is not. Consider Fleener a low-end TE1 in a matchup that should take away or at least limit Michael Thomas.

Prediction: Patriots 31, Saints 27

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) Over/Under: 41.0

Just one week after shutting out the Bengals while on the road, the Ravens will return home to play the Browns. It’s a good time to be a Ravens fan. While at home last year, the Ravens allowed a league-best 14.8 points per game, making this look like a week to avoid the Browns skill position players. On the Browns side, they allowed 29.6 points per game on the road, which was the third-worst in the league. We already know the Browns will be without Myles Garrett, while the Ravens will be without running back Danny Woodhead and linebacker Zadarius Smith, who had to be carted off with a knee injury in Week 1. Considering everything, the line on this game seems to be right where it should be. Keep in mind that the Browns have allowed at least 23 points to 17 of the last 18 teams they have played.

QBs: DeShone Kizer was impressive in his NFL debut at times, and then he looked like a guy starting his first NFL game at times. It appears that they’re willing to use him on the goal-line carrying the ball, raising his fantasy floor. This will be his first road game and it just so happens to be against the Ravens who allowed the fewest points at home last year. This is not a matchup to use him in if you’re streaming quarterbacks, but he still has a top-20 projection because of his rushing ability. He’s almost always going to be a safe play in 2QB leagues. It was odd to see Joe Flacco throw the ball just 17 times in Week 1, especially when you consider the fact that he didn’t have a game with fewer than 30 attempts in 2015 or 2016. The way to attack the Browns has always been through the air and Flacco has been no exception, as he threw for 598 yards and five touchdowns in their two meetings last year. It hurts not to have Danny Woodhead as a safety blanket, but Javorius Allen should be able to help. Flacco is a solid QB2 this week, though I wouldn’t expect him to have the ceiling he did in their matchups last year. This offense is still working out the kinks and is missing parts.

RBs: You were warned in this area last week not to automatically trust Isaiah Crowell against the Steelers and my worst fears about him were realized when he toted the ball 17 times for just 33 yards and lost a goal-line carry to Kizer. The good news is that he was on the field for 52 of 66 snaps (79 percent), which is much higher than his total from 2016, which was just above 50 percent. This matchup is brutal, as the Ravens have been one of the best run-stopping defenses over the last decade, and it showed against the Bengals as they held Jeremy Hill, Joe Mixon, and Giovani Bernard to just 75 yards on 21 carries with no touchdowns. Given the fact that he’s a road underdog, Crowell is just a low-end RB2/flex play this week. It was odd to see, but Duke Johnson didn’t play a single snap at running back in Week 1, but instead lined up as a wide receiver on 50 snaps. He’ll likely see a lot of Lardarius Webb who comes down from safety to cover the slot for the Ravens. It’s not a great matchup, but considering he’s playing that many snaps and that he saw five targets in Week 1, he should be on the radar as an RB4 in PPR formats. Terrance West is the clear-cut No. 1 running back for the Ravens, making him a must-start RB2 against the Browns, who have allowed 7 of the last 11 running backs to play them to score 22 or more DraftKings points. A large reason is due to the fact that they’ve allowed 13 rushing scores in those 11 games. You can even plug Javorius Allen into your flex-spot if you desire, especially in PPR leagues. He should see extended looks with Woodhead out for the foreseeable future.

WRs: It appears Corey Coleman is the favorite of Kizer after he saw double the targets that Kenny Britt did in Week 1, turning them into five catches for 53 yards and a touchdown. It’s likely that Ravens top cornerback Jimmy Smith just stays put at right cornerback this week, which means he’ll see both Coleman and Britt in coverage. Considering the Browns will have trouble moving the ball on the ground, you can do worse than Coleman as a WR4 in season-long this week. I’d stay away in DFS due to the low implied team total (16.8 points). Britt is someone who should be left on benches until we see him develop chemistry with Kizer, because it didn’t show in preseason or against the Steelers. Jeremy Maclin produced in Week 1 despite Flacco throwing the ball just 17 times. Some will say they are worried about the four targets, but it was actually a 24 percent target share in their first game together. Consider Maclin a solid WR3 in season-long leagues and a solid cheap option in DFS, as he’ll see a lot of slot cornerback Briean Boddy-Calhoun in this matchup. On 53 targets in coverage last year, he allowed six touchdowns, or one every 8.8 targets. He played solid in Week 1, but Maclin is a proven veteran who should see plenty of target in this game. Mike Wallace saw just one target in Week 1, which actually fell three behind Breshad Perriman, who was reportedly at less than 100 percent. Wallace is still the better player, but this is something to watch. If possible, let the situation play out and see if this becomes a trend, though Perriman did nothing with the targets. Consider Wallace just a WR4/5 and Perriman a WR5 in this game that should produce 30-plus carries for the Ravens backfield.

TEs: It appears that Seth DeValve is the pass-catching tight end of the Browns offense right now, as he ran 19 routes on Sunday compared to just 14 for rookie tight end David Njoku. DeValve was also targeted five times and produced four catches for 42 yards, while Njoku saw two targets and caught both of them for 20 yards. If you want to play one, it’s DeValve right now, but it’s probably best to avoid a timeshare at the tight end position if possible. Funny thing is that DeValve actually scored against them last year in a backup role. This is the worst possible scenario, as we have an A-plus matchup against the Browns defense, but we don’t know which tight end is the one who’ll catch the majority of passes for the Ravens. If I had to bet on one of them, it’d be Nick Boyle who led all tight ends with 45 snaps against the Bengals, but he didn’t run many pass routes (nobody did, they threw 17 times). The Browns have allowed nine of the last 17 tight ends who have played against them to score 18 or more PPR points. If you’re looking for guy who’ll be less than one percent owned in a tournament, Boyle is your guy.

Prediction: Ravens 24, Browns 16

Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) Over/Under: 47.5

One of the closer-matched games this week, this should be a competitive game throughout. In what may go overlooked, this is a matchup of two coaches who used to coach on the same sideline, Andy Reid and Doug Pederson. The Chiefs are a much better team at home, but they also just lost one of the best players on their defense, as safety Eric Berry tore his Achilles and is out for the year. He is usually the one glued to tight ends and did a phenomenal job with Rob Gronkowski last week. The Eagles will be without cornerback Ronald Darby who suffered a dislocated ankle in Week 1. Left tackle Jason Peters also left the game in Week 1, though his status in unknown at this point. If he were to miss the game, all Eagles need to be downgraded. It’s also important to note that the Eagles were also a different team away from home last year, allowing a massive 25.9 points per game, which bodes well for the Chiefs offense.

QBs: The Eagles game-plan last week was spot-on, as they attacked the middle of the field consistently, which was the Redskins biggest weakness. It just so happens that the Chiefs are playing with a backup slot cornerback and strong safety, so look for a similar game-plan this week. Wentz showed signs of what we saw at the beginning of 2016 – elusive in the pocket, keeping his eyes downfield, and solid arm strength. With that being said, I’d be cautious using him on the road in Kansas City as anything more than a QB2 this week. The Chiefs have held seven of the last nine quarterbacks they’ve played to one or less touchdowns (included Cam Newton, Jameis Winston, Matt Ryan, Derek Carr, Marcus Mariota, and Tom Brady). Let’s get something straight, Alex Smith is likely never to have a better game than the one he did in Week 1 against the Patriots. The Eagles have held their opponents to the third-fewest plays per game over the last two years, making it highly unlikely Smith eclipses 35 pass attempts. Smith is going to have a solid floor with his rushing ability, but he’s just a middling QB2 in this matchup.

RBs: It was the Kareem Hunt show in Week 1, as he scored more fantasy points in one game than all but one running back did last year (Le’Veon Bell in Week 14). Consider the fact that he played just 39 of 68 snaps and it’s even more impressive. That’s really the only concern, as it appears Charcandrick West will have a solid role. The Eagles front-seven is extremely solid, though, as they allowed just two running backs to score 20 or more DraftKings points against them last year. In fact, there were just four running backs who rushed for more than 68 yards against them last year, and just one to top 100 yards. Hunt is still a great play at home in a game they are favored with a solid over/under. Consider him an RB1 until he gives you a reason not to. Let it be known that I’d under-own him in DFS this week because the ownership will be sky-high. West did play 23 snaps but touched the ball just twice, meaning he shouldn’t be considered in fantasy leagues right now. As I said before the year, the Eagles backfield is one to avoid and this contest is no different. Their combination of LeGarrette Blount and Wendell Smallwood combined for just 50 yards on 16 carries against the Redskins, though Blount scored… a receiving touchdown. Blount is going to let you down when he doesn’t score, but it should be said that the Chiefs have now allowed nine rushing touchdowns in their last six regular season games. Still, I wouldn’t trust Blount as anything more than an RB3 in this matchup. Darren Sproles should be considered, as the Chiefs have now allowed an opposing running back to rack up 30 or more receiving yards in seven of their last 10 games. He’s a solid RB3 in PPR formats. Stay away from Smallwood until Blount surrenders the job.

WRs: Tyreek Hill got off to a hot start in 2017 when he streaked for a 75-yard touchdown on a play where there was a miscommunication. Hill will do that to a defense at times and this week is a solid matchup, especially considering the Eagles will be without their top cornerback Ronald Darby. They allowed the third-most yardage to wide receivers in 2016, making this a dream matchup for Hill, as he’s not going to jump over people to snag touchdowns or anything. It won’t be often I say this, but consider him a strong WR2 play in this game. Chris Conley clearly has the No. 2 wide receiver job, but in a game where Alex Smith threw for 368 yards, he had just two catches for 43 yards. He’s not the worst pivot-play in tournaments while everyone plays Hill, but don’t expect him to post anything more than WR4/5 numbers, even in a good matchup. Alshon Jeffery was surprisingly not shadowed by Josh Norman in Week 1, but was still left out of production. It’ll be interesting to see if he can bounce back against the Chiefs duo of Marcus Peters and Terrance Mitchell in Week 2. Peters is one of the better cornerbacks in the league and most teams avoid him, but he stays at RCB, so Jeffery won’t see him more than half the time anyway. The Chiefs did allow 14 wide receivers to accumulate 15 or more PPR points against them in 2016. Consider Jeffery as a low-end WR2 who should have a good opportunity to score in this game as the Chiefs try to figure out life without Eric Berry. Torrey Smith saw just three targets in Week 1 while Nelson Agholor tied for a team-high eight targets. Smith is a boom or bust WR5 option every single week, though this wouldn’t be the week you should take that shot. Agholor actually has the best matchup, but it’s difficult to trust a wide receiver who was so bad in 2016. I’d prefer to be able to sit back and make sure it wasn’t a fluke, but if you’re in a bad spot, his matchup is a good one.

TEs: Coming from the Andy Reid coaching tree, Doug Pederson has done well limiting opposing tight ends in production. Throughout the entire 2016 season, they didn’t allow a single tight end to total more than 13 PPR points. But after facing a Patriots defense that keyed in on stopping him, Travis Kelce should at least come back to post solid TE1 numbers. But considering how stingy the Eagles have been to tight ends under Peterson (held Jordan Reed to just five catches for 36 yards), limit your expectations. Kelce is not a great DFS play in this one, wait for another game to spend up on him. Zach Ertz would have been a complete fade if Eric Berry was playing, but his needle moves up with him out of the lineup. In the only season the Chiefs were without Berry for the majority (2014), they allowed eight touchdowns to tight ends. They allowed just two in 2015 and four in 2016. Ertz definitely gets an upgrade into the low-end TE1 conversation.

Prediction: Chiefs 23, Eagles 20

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