Online drafts have their ups and downs. While a convenient set of default rankings gives the uninformed player a life preserver, it also causes gamers to fall in line with the host’s valuations. A novice will draft in accordance to the ADP, but a seasoned player will manipulate it to his or her advantage.
Before beginning any online draft, study the provided rankings and ADP to note any discrepancies. Don’t have your own rankings yet? Use FantasyPros’ Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) as a shortcut.
Let’s compare and contrast the ECR with Yahoo’s ADP as of Wednesday, August 8. Since Yahoo has shifted its default scoring to half PPR, I’ll use that ECR from 60 analysts. This exercise revealed many players overvalued and undervalued by Yahoo, but don’t assume the experts are always right.
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Experts Like More
Andrew Luck (QB – IND) ECR: QB10, ADP: QB16
Realizing he’s a top-flight option when healthy, the experts are willing to forgive Luck for missing all of 2017. The typical Yahoo drafter, however, still holds a grudge. I’m torn between both sides. He’s currently my QB13, but there’s a decent chance that rises or declines depending on his preseason health prognosis. At his current Yahoo cost, I’m more willing to take a flier and back him up with one of these two bargains…
Marcus Mariota (QB – TEN) ECR: QB17, ADP: QB24
Alex Smith (QB – WAS) ECR: QB18, ADP: QB29
Before getting too excited, the overall ECR and ADPs are not much different for Mariota (118 ECR, 124 Yahoo) and Smith (125 ECR, 130 Yahoo). That’s because the average drafter is far more likely to draft a backup quarterback than an expert. But it’s still nice to know you can select Smith, last year’s QB4, after Lamar Jackson and the suspended Jameis Winston.
I rank Washington’s new passer three position spots higher than the ECR, and Mariota is my QB16 despite a putrid third-year showing. The Tennessee offensive explosion many anticipated last season could arrive a year later under offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur, who transformed the Rams into a modern NFL offense. Circle both names when drafting on Yahoo.
Lamar Miller (RB – HOU) ECR: RB22, ADP: RB26
Five spots may not seem so severe, but it’s a 20-spot difference (51 ECR, 71 ADP) for Miller. While he’s a risky proposition after averaging a career-worst 3.7 YPC and ceding snaps to Alfred Blue last December, he was also the standard RB11 though Week 8, Deshaun Watson‘s last game under center. Having cemented top-20 finishes in each of the last four seasons, I’ll happily make Miller my flex pick in the sixth round.
Kerryon Johnson (RB – DET) ECR: RB34, ADP: RB41
The fantasy industry as a whole is warming to Johnson, so don’t be surprised if his ECR and ADP both rise throughout August. His best ball ADP on DRAFT, for instance, is a whopping 69th overall. His talent may mitigate worries of losing goal-line carries to LeGarrette Blount and targets to Theo Riddick, but I’m not yet reaching much higher than his 91st overall ECR.
Duke Johnson (RB – CLE) ECR: RB33, ADP: RB38
Theo Riddick (RB – DET) ECR: RB49, ADP: RB59
It appears Yahoo did not put enough weight into its half-PPR transition. Johnson and Riddick finished 14th and 33rd, respectively, among RBs in the format last season, so one could argue the experts are also too low on both pass-catching backs. They each have their limited ceilings further threatened by more crowded backfields, but the value is too nice to ignore if available as bench depth.
Larry Fitzgerald (WR – ARI) ECR: WR14, ADP: WR19
Demaryius Thomas (WR – DEN) ECR: WR17, ADP: WR20
Golden Tate (WR – DET) ECR: WR19, ADP: WR22
Here are more cases of Yahoo underrating steady, high-volume players. The lack of love for Thomas is at least somewhat understandable after tallying his fewest receptions (83) and receiving yards (949) since 2011. Yet that down year still resulted in a WR17 placement. He’s now going cheaper despite Denver stabilizing the quarterback spot by adding Case Keenum, so take all the Thomas you can get in the fourth round.
As for Fitzgerald and Tate, the experts appreciate their dependability more than Yahoo. While the former has corralled 107-109 catches for more than 1,000 yards in each of the last three seasons, the latter has stockpiled four consecutive campaigns with at least 90 receptions. Anybody from this trio would make a superb WR2.
Corey Davis (WR – TEN) ERC: WR27, ADP: WR30
Sammy Watkins (WR – KC) ERC: WR28, ADP: WR36
I’m taking Yahoo’s side here, or at least splitting the difference for Watkins. While the upside is substantial for both Davis and Watkins, the experts have both boom-or-bust wideouts in the 60 and 62 overall spots, respectively. That’s too rich for my liking, but I’d bite at their depreciated 92 and 105 Yahoo ADPs.
Kenny Stills (WR – MIA) ERC: WR46, ADP: WR63
Rishard Matthews (WR – TEN) ECR: WR47, ADP: WR68
I already gushed over Stills, so I’m firmly on the experts’ side here. Another one of my favorite late-round wideout values, Matthews, is also on the cusp of getting undrafted in Yahoo leagues. He’s averaging 58.0 YPG with a 60.5 catch percentage since joining the Titans in 2016, and his only games with fewer than 30 yards last season came against Jalen Ramsey and Patrick Peterson. I may, however, have to veer closer to Yahoo’s grade if he does not soon return from an undisclosed injury.
Josh Doctson (WR – WAS) ECR: WR50, ADP: WR67
A near-final pick for a 25-year-old starter who received 15 red-zone targets last year? Sure, why not?
Tyrell Williams (WR – LAC) ECR: WR62, ADP: N/A
Williams doesn’t even have a Yahoo ADP. The experts are not so quick to forget his 1,059 yards and seven touchdowns in 2016.
Jack Doyle (TE – IND) ECR: TE12, ADP: TE23
I’m trying hard not to break into a “if you take away one thing from this” cliche, but the Doyle discrepancy surprised me more than any other. There are no values to find among the top-10 tight ends, who all have a higher ADP than ECR. Doyle, meanwhile, is going behind Jesse James, Luke Willson, Jake Butt, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Things get weird beyond the brand-name options, so wait out the position and grab someone averaging 4.5 catches per game over the last two seasons. And this is coming from a person who is at best neutral to the Indianapolis tight end.
David Njoku (TE – CLE) ECR: TE13, ADP: TE25
There are a lot of other tight ends (Cameron Brate, Charles Clay, Eric Ebron, and Jared Cook) with a far lower positional rank but similar overall ADP. I picked out Njoku since he’s a buzzier name than those bench options with a 121 consensus rank and 130 ADP. Cleveland has too many options to consider the sophomore as a top-15 tight end, so I likely still won’t bother unless Josh Gordon does not report in time to start the season. Yet the sophomore still needs to go before the likes of James, Willson, and Butt.
Yahoo ADP Likes More
Jimmy Garoppolo (QB – SF) ECR: QB13, ADP: QB8
This undersells Yahoo drafters’ love for Garoppolo, who carries an absurd 62 overall ADP. That’s barely beyond Tom Brady’s 56 ECR. There’s no logical explanation for him going a full two rounds before Matthew Stafford following an exciting five games as San Francisco’s starter. I rank him a spot ahead of the experts, but I won’t touch him in a Yahoo draft.
Jared Goff (QB – LAR) ECR: QB15, ADP: QB10
Goff is my QB18, so this is another easy fade. Last year’s QB12 (11th in PPG) must entirely repeat last year’s breakout to justify this cost. I’m dubious of him finishing seven more games with a pass of over 50 yards, and he needed those huge plays just to average 253.6 yards per game in a run-heavy offense revolving around Todd Gurley.
Tyrod Taylor (QB – CLE) ECR: QB27, ADP: QB18
Baker Mayfield (QB – CLE) ECR: QB34, ADP: QB19
This is odd. Yahoo’s ADP likes Taylor and Mayfield considerably more than the experts, who realize only one can start for Cleveland. Either one – especially Taylor – could easily live up to a top-20 rank, but there’s not enough job security to draft either so high. This is a situation I’d instead monitor from the waiver wire in one-quarterback leagues.
Aaron Jones (RB – GB) ECR: RB43, ADP: RB33
Yahoo is firmly on Team Jones, who is getting drafted 11 running backs and two rounds before teammate Jamaal Williams. The experts, meanwhile, prefer Williams, who gets two weeks to cement his spot in Green Bay’s backfield while Jones serves a suspension. Although Williams needed a heavy workload, both second-year backs shined when given the chance last year. While Jones brandishes far more big-play upside, Williams’ blocking makes him more likely to stay on the field. Both are worth your time in the right context, so Yahoo drafters should take the cheaper of the two choices.
Frank Gore (RB – MIA) ECR: RB58, ADP: RB43
Perhaps Yahoo drafters knew the Dolphins would list Gore as Kenyan Drake’s co-starter in their opening preseason depth chart. Or maybe they’re just chasing name recognition. The 35-year-old has defied Father Time by playing every game and receiving at least 250 handoffs in each of the last seven seasons, but even a more significant role than initially anticipated will still be far lighter than his norm. It doesn’t sound like Adam Gase took the depth chart too seriously, so keep Gore outside the position’s top 50.
Samaje Perine (RB – WAS) ECR: RB66, ADP: RB42
While Perine was the RB44 in half-PPR leagues last season, he also averaged 3.5 YPC and scored two touchdowns despite receiving at least 15 touches in half of his games. After squandering his opportunity as Washington’s lead back, he’ll take a back seat to Derrius Guice, who maintains an RB18 Yahoo ADP despite the site’s odd affinity for the rookie’s understudy.
Josh Gordon (WR – CLE) ECR: WR24, ADP: WR16
The difference isn’t even about him not yet showing up to camp. According to Cleveland.com’s Mary Kay Cabot, the polarizing receiver is “getting closer to reporting.” Even if he’s ready for Week 1, a 42nd average pick (ahead of Fitzgerald, Tate, and Thomas) is far too steep for someone who has played 10 games over the last four years. Yahoo isn’t leaving much room for profit with a fourth-round buy-in rate, so let someone else deal with the hassle.
Will Fuller (WR – HOU) ECR: WR40, ADP: WR31
Fuller took seven of his 28 catches and 50 targets to the house, so he’ll reside on this list for just about any draft site. Expecting significant touchdown regression while doubting his durability, the experts are not buying the hype. Plenty of drafters, on the other hand, still drool over his 279 yards and seven scores in four games with Watson. Perhaps the industry is overlooking his upside, but it’s going to be borderline impossible to attain him at a reasonable price in redraft leagues. He’s going ahead of Pierre Garcon, Jamison Crowder, Emmanuel Sanders, and Randall Cobb, all wideouts I easily prefer in half-PPR leagues.
Jordy Nelson (WR – OAK) ECR: WR43, ADP: WR34
I recently examined Nelson’s rising stock and had since upgraded him from WR48 to WR42 in my rankings. That’s still eight spots below his Yahoo ADP, so I’ll try to snag some shares elsewhere.
Dez Bryant (WR – FA) ECR: WR57, ADP: WR42
It’s August, and Bryant still isn’t on a team. I don’t even want him at his ECR, so there’s no way I’m taking him as my fourth receiver in a Yahoo draft until he signs. Even then, he’d need to go back to Dallas or find another favorable landing spot to offset the sizable risk of a rusty start.
Cole Beasley (WR – DAL) ECR: WR80, ADP: WR44
Beasley was the WR36 (half-PPR) in 2016, so perhaps Yahoo drafters are closer to the mark. Yet the ceiling isn’t high enough to grab him before Cobb and Stills, so why lunge for someone who averaged 19.6 yards per game last season?
Jimmy Graham (TE – GB) ECR: TE6, ADP: TE4
The experts like the second-tier tight ends less than Yahoo drafters, who are grabbing Graham far sooner (47th) than the touts (73rd) would recommend. Having caught one or fewer passes four times, he’s especially shaky in half-PPR scoring. While the ECR prefers Greg Olsen and Evan Engram, I’ll take Delanie Walker (72 ECR, 67 ADP) over all of them.
Hayden Hurst (TE – BAL) ECR: TE26, ADP: TE18
Did everyone start lunging for Hurst after his preseason touchdown? Baltimore has plenty of targets up for grabs, and drafters should grab their guys this late down the board. However, I’m not drafting a rookie tight end who scored three touchdowns in three seasons at South Carolina — at least not when Doyle is still available.
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Andrew Gould is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrewgould4.
