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FanDuel Market Watch: Week 8

Oct 22, 2019

Despite what happened last week, David Johnson may still be worth playing in DFS

Here are the players that have seen the largest value fluctuation from last week to this week’s FanDuel main slate. Depending on the situation, we may be able to exploit this information and take advantage of the fact that the player’s salary increased or decreased significantly from last week.

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Ryan Tannehill (TEN): $6,900 vs. TB (+$500)
If you are looking for a cheap quarterback, then Tannehill is an option, especially against Tampa Bay. Other than Week 1, every opposing quarterback has thrown for 300+ yards or multiple touchdowns against the Bucs. They are sixth-worst in allowing fantasy scoring from the position (21.9 FDFP). Tannehill is coming off an impressive game in which he completed 23 of 29 passes for 312 yards and two touchdowns. I am afraid that his ceiling isn’t much higher than this 20.18 fantasy-point performance, though (26 FDFP was his highest output last year starting for the Dolphins).

Even though the matchup is good this week, the Titans; offense is still a huge question mark. Certainly, you could have some shares of him in large-field tournaments, but he probably should not be a core play. He is still Ryan Tannehill after all.

Carson Wentz (PHI): $7,400 @ BUF (-$400)
Wentz looked really bad on national TV against the Cowboys. He is a much better player and has a stronger team around him than what was displayed Sunday night. Even though I like Wentz, his coach, and his cupboard of weapons, he has only topped 20 FDFP three times this year. He goes to Buffalo this week. The Bills have yet to give up a 300-yard passing game or multiple touchdowns to any quarterback. This is not the week to hope for Wentz to get it together.

Running Backs

Latavius Murray (NO): $6,200 vs. ARI (+$900)
He’s not dirt cheap like he was last week, but he is still one of the best values on the slate, provided Alvin Kamara sits out again. Even if Kamara is healthy enough to play, Sean Payton has shown a tendency not to overwork him, which puts Murray in play, especially after his 27-119-2 (29.5 FDFP) performance last week.

David Johnson (ARI): $6,900 @ NO (-$600)
The top three biggest decreases in salary at the running back position are all New York Giants. Saquon Barkley is back and you aren’t playing any of those guys. The biggest decrease of note is from David Johnson.

I played him last week at low-ownership hoping to gain leverage on the field. Even though Kliff Kingsbury took liberties with the injury report and wasn’t upfront with reporters and fans, I knew the risks. I will play him again this week (though not as much as last week) because he is too good and his price is too low.

However, I will only be playing him in large-field tournaments where I am trying to differentiate myself. Even if DJ is healthy, there is the risk that Chase Edmonds earned more of a role in this backfield despite DJ being the fourth-highest scoring running back in fantasy going into the last game. Even if the workload is split a little bit, DJ’s price makes him an option to consider.

Wide Receivers

Danny Amendola (DET): $5,800 vs. NYG (+$1,100)
He saw 11 targets Sunday against Minnesota for an 8-105-0 stat line, but still only earned 14.5 FDFP. Even if he continues to see double-digit targets, his ceiling is too low. There are better options in this same price range (Golden Tate, John Brown, Dede Westbrook, Phillip Dorsett, or Tyler Boyd).

Auden Tate (CIN): $5,400 @ LAR (-$500)
He is really cheap, so it might be tempting to click on his name, especially since he has seen more targets this year than Adam Thielen and T.Y. Hilton (according to Mike Tagliere). However, there is no need to play with fire this week, as his best game this year has only been 11.6 FDFP and now he gets Jalen Ramsey in coverage.

Tight Ends

Hunter Henry (LAC): $6,700 @ CHI (+$1,000)
He has caught 17 balls for 197 yards and two touchdowns in the two games since he has returned from injury, so it was inevitable that his price would rise. He has a tough matchup this week as the Bears have only allowed two touchdowns all year to the position. Foster Moreau’s 46 yards have been the most they have given up, as well. This week will probably be a week that you play the tight end you prefer as they are all priced similarly and all have some sort of flaw (struggling, bad matchup, inconsistency, uncertainty about team targets, etc…).

Evan Engram (NYG): $6,300 @ DET (-$500)
Engram had an incredibly disappointing day in a fabulous matchup on Sunday. It is possible that he still had some lingering effects from his MCL injury. This week, he is tied with Zach Ertz as the fifth-most expensive tight end on the main slate.

We know that he has tremendous upside, but there are some questions. The Lions have only given up one touchdown to the position all year and no tight end has reached 100 yards against them. I will probably have a fair amount of him, but won’t go crazy even at this discounted price because of the uncertainty with his health.

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Jamy Bechler is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and a leadership consultant, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommended in this article.

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