Rookie Joey Slye started the season red hot, with 49 fantasy points in his first four NFL games. The former Virginia Tech Hokie looked primed to be a breakout fantasy kicker, playing on a high-scoring offense with Kyle Allen under center and Christian McCaffrey tearing up defenses.

Fantasy owners who added Slye off waivers had a distinct advantage over most of their opponents, with Slye posting four games of 12 or more fantasy points in his first six games with the Panthers.

Then the bye happened Week 7, and Slye has yet to score more than six points in the past five games, including a disappointing five points on Sunday against the Saints. Slye missed two extra points, and a short 30-yard chip shot that would have given Carolina the lead over New Orleans with a minute to play.

Confidence is critical for kickers, and it often escapes rookies at the most inopportune times. Robert Aguayo was the most accurate kicker in NCAA history, but flamed out with the Bucs after the pressure of the game became too much. Like Aguayo, Mike Nugent was a dominant college kicker who earned a second-round pick, only fail to live up to expectations. The former is out of the league and working for the PGA, while the latter is a free agent journeyman looking to sign with his ninth NFL team.

Hopefully, the bright young kickers in the NFL, like Slye, Matt Gay in Tampa Bay, Younghoe Koo in Atlanta, and Chase McLaughlin in San Francisco, do not go down a similar path.

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Week 12 Stud Performances from Widely-Available Kickers

Chase McLaughlin (SF) vs. Green Bay: 8% ownership on Yahoo
Outside of the shanked 47-yard field goal in the overtime loss against the Seahawks, McLaughlin has done a stellar job filling in for the injured Robbie Gould. McLaughlin finished tied for the No.1 ranking this week with 15 points on three field goals and four extra points. Whoever is kicking for the 49ers is in a great place to score fantasy points, primarily due to the fact that despite ranking in the top 5 in yards per game, Jimmy G and the San Francisco offense is in the bottom quarter in red-zone efficiency. When playing against a top 10 red zone defense like the Packers, McLaughlin was primed to post a monster game and came through with a week winning performance for his owners.

Dustin Hopkins (WAS) vs. DET: 1% ownership on Yahoo
Kudos to the 1% of you who started Hopkins this week against the Lions, although likely the majority of people who make up that single percent are dead teams in dead leagues. Although Hopkins does have three games of 10 or more fantasy points, including this week’s 14-point game against Detroit, he failed to score more than three points in any of his other ten games and should be avoided going forward.

Week 12 Dud Performances from Heavily-Owned Kickers

Matt Gay (TB) @ Atlanta: 67% ownership on Yahoo
Gay was the only kicker owned in more than 65% of Yahoo leagues to deliver a dud performance last week. The rookie missed three extra points on the day, but he did make his one field goal opportunity. The fantasy community is banking on a high scoring game between the Bucs and the Jags this week, with Gay having a top-5 performance. I am a little worried about the confidence of the rookie and ranked him 10th overall this week.

Kicker Rankings

 
*Red Zone Efficiency is based on the inverse of how well the kicker’s offense does in the red zone. For example, the Ravens rank second in red-zone efficiency; therefore Justin Tucker has a RZ EFF score of 31. The lower number, the better for kickers, as playing on a team that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone equates to more field goal opportunities.

**The K Score is the sum of a player’s opponent red zone, the red zone efficiency of his offense, and the overall rank of his respective team in terms of total yards. A low score indicates that a kicker has variables working in his favor for a good fantasy kicking performance.

Kicker rankings are based on numerous factors, including matchups, Vegas lines and score projections, weather conditions, the ability of a kicker’s team offense and their ability to move the ball into field goal range, offensive red zone efficiency, and how well the opposing defense limits touchdowns in the red zone. These factors are a guide, but not a definitive way to predict kicking success, as other variables and negative game scripts significantly impact the outcome.

Based on all of the variables mentioned above, the following two kickers are players ranked outside of the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who could be an excellent play Week 13:

Ka’imi Fairbairn (HOU): 69% Ownership on Yahoo
Fairbairn has been a disappointment this season compared to what he did in his breakout 2018 campaign. The Houston offense has not moved the ball quite as well between the 20s, while Deshaun Watson has been more efficient in the red zone. The fantasy industry has Fairbairn ranked outside the top 15 this week based on the assumption that the Patriots will go into Houston and beat up on the Texans. Fairbairn’s K Score of 30 indicates that he will have more than a few field goal opportunities and could be a sneaky streaming option Week 13.

Chase McLaughlin (SF) @ Baltimore: 8% ownership on Yahoo
With 31 fantasy points over the past three games, Chase McLaughlin has been one of the best fantasy kickers in the month of November. I’m not sure what he needs to do to prove to the fantasy industry that he is worthy of a streaming start each week. Perhaps the experts who make up the ECR anticipate the Ravens will blow out the 49ers this week like they did the Rams on Sunday Night Football. I do not think that will be the case, and McLaughlin’s elite K Score of 19 makes him one of my favorite starts of the week.

Prediction Review

Each week I suggest two kickers ranked outside the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who I believe will be solid performers based on the variables described in the K Score section. The following is a review of my picks from the previous week to see where I was successful and where I missed the mark.

Chase McLaughlin (SF) vs. Green Bay: 5% ownership on Yahoo
ECR Rank: 15
My Rank: 7
Week 12 Finish: Tied for First
Hopefully, some of you followed this advice and started McLaughlin against the Packers on Sunday Night Football. As I mentioned last week, a K Score of 20 was a huge indicator that the rookie would be in line for a ton of work against a Packers defense that ranks in the top-10 in red-zone defense. Not only did McLaughlin deliver, but he also finished with 14 fantasy points and a share of the top ranking for the week.

Brett Maher (DAL) @ New England: 82% Ownership on Yahoo
ECR Rank: 16
My Rank: 9
Week 12 Finish: Tied for 7
Maher entered this week’s matchup with the best K Score of any kicker over the past two seasons. His K Score of 19 indicated an extremely high probability that he would get multiple field goal opportunities against the Patriots in what would be a close, low scoring game. The game was close and low scoring, and Maher did get four field goal opportunities and was one hit post away from finishing tied for the top spot.

Waiver Wired

Top Add

Michael Badgley (LAC) @ Denver: 8% Ownership on Yahoo
Badgley is my top-ranked kicker of the week and should be a top-10 kicker for the remainder of the season. Assuming the weather in Denver does not get nasty this weekend, Badgley’s K Score of 21 and the thin, friendly air in Denver make him one of the best starts of the week.

Other players to consider:

Chase McLaughlin (SF) @ Baltimore: 8% ownership on Yahoo

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Andrew Swanson is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive or follow him @FFtoday_Andy.