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DraftKings NFL GPP Lineup Advice: Week 5

by Josh Shepardson | @BChad50 | Featured Writer
Oct 9, 2020

It’s a great week to pony up for a stud tight end, and that’s reflected in my pair of studs worth their salary featured below. Rookie running backs are well represented this week with a pair of them included. Things are rounded out by a three-man stack facing a Charmin-soft defense.

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Studs Worth Their Salary

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB – KC): $6,800 vs. Raiders
Edwards-Helaire is having a solid start to the season ranking sixth in the NFL in rushing yards (304) and adding 14 receptions for 129 receiving yards on 19 targets. He’s reached pay dirt only one time, but 108.3 yards from scrimmage per game is nothing to sneeze at, and he’s had some good touchdown luck away from a monster week.

He couldn’t ask for a better fantasy matchup and projected game script. The Raiders have surrendered the most DraftKings points per game to running backs this year, and they’ve been beaten on the ground and by air. To this point of the season, they’ve allowed 5.35 yards per carry to the running back position, and the 31 receptions they’ve coughed up are tied for the third-most receptions. The 276 receiving yards yielded to the position is the second-most, per Pro-Football-Reference. As for the game script, the Chiefs are the biggest favorites this week, laying 13 points to the visiting Raiders, according to the BettingPros consensus line. CEH is my favorite running back on the main slate this week.

George Kittle (TE – SF): $6,600 vs. Dolphins
A forthcoming affordable three-man stack helps open the door for spending up at a typical punt position, tight end. Kittle put in yeoman’s work Sunday night reeling in all 15 of his targets for 183 receiving yards and a touchdown while adding an eight-yard rush as a cherry on top. Expecting a repeat would be silly, but Kittle’s a true monster, and factoring in the general depression of the top salaries at tight end relative to other positions makes him even more appealing.

The 49ers are nine point favorites against a visiting Dolphins squad, and the game’s over/under total of 49.5 points leaves the hosts with a tasty implied total of 29.25 points. As the best player on San Francisco’s offense and a matchup nightmare, I like Kittle’s odds of reaching the end zone. He should also command a hefty workload in a matchup with a Dolphins defense that ranks 28th in Pass Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), according to Football Outsiders.

Value Play

Antonio Gibson (RB – WAS): $5,000 vs. Rams
We haven’t seen Gibson fully unleashed yet with just one game playing more than 50% of the Football Team’s offensive snaps as you can see on our snap counts page, but he could be nearing a full-blown blowup game. He’s rushed for a touchdown on three straight games, has bested 50 yards from scrimmage in each of those contests, and he’s coming off of his best showing on the year with a 13-46-1 line on the ground and 4-82-0 line on five targets through the air.

With the Football Team pulling the plug on Dwayne Haskins at quarterback and turning to Kyle Allen as their quarterback, could that be a sign of Washington wisely making changes that could include leaning more heavily on their electric rookie back? Maybe!

Speculation is a huge part of the fantasy game, and being ahead of a blowup performance rather than chasing it is a formula for cashing big. If Gibson’s role is increased this week, it’s a great matchup and fantasy-friendly setup.

Football Outsiders ranks the Rams 28th in Rush Defense DVOA. The Rams have given up a bunch of large chunk plays on the ground, and that’s reflected in a 14% average explosive run rate allowed that’s tied for the sixth-highest mark, per Sharp Football Stats. That should all result in a bunch of fantasy points allowed to backs and an obvious plus matchup to gamers, right? Not exactly. They rank just middle of the pack in DraftKings points allowed to the position primarily due to only ceding three total touchdowns to backs. As the look under the hood reveals, this is a more favorable matchup than merely middle of the road, though.

As an added bonus, this game has a chance to be played at a breakneck pace. Washington is playing at the third-fastest situation neutral pace while the Rams are playing at the eighth-fastest situation neutral pace, according to Football Outsiders. More plays equates to more fantasy scoring opportunities. I’ll be overweight on Gibson exposure this week.

Favorite Stack

Teddy Bridgewater (QB – CAR): $5,900 at Falcons
D.J. Moore (WR – CAR): $6,000 at Falcons
Robby Anderson (WR – CAR): $5,900 at Falcons

For full disclosure, this will probably be a chalky stack. However, using the entire trio together as opposed to using Bridgewater with either Moore or Anderson could be somewhat unique. Sticking on the recently discussed topic of pace, the Panthers will be treated to an up-tempo pace against the host Falcons. The Dirty Birds are playing at the fourth-fastest situation neutral pace this year. That opens the door for more plays for the Panthers against Atlanta’s hapless defense.

The Falcons have yielded the most DraftKings points per game to quarterbacks by a wide margin and have been rocked by receivers as well, coughing up the eighth-most DraftKings points per game to wideouts. Football Outsiders ranks the Falcons just one spot out of the basement at 31st in Pass Defense DVOA. This is a mouthwatering matchup for Bridgewater, and I’m digging both of his top two wideouts.

I fully expected them to use Anderson as a one-dimensional field-stretching option when they signed him in the offseason, but that hasn’t been the case. Anderson has an average depth of target this year of 8.9 yards downfield. In his previous two years with the Jets, he sported an average depth of target of 15.6 yards and 15.1 yards in 2018 and 2019, respectively, according to Sports Info Solutions. Anderson’s yet the latest success story escaping from the clutches of Adam Gase and his comically terrible offenses. Anderson’s been Carolina’s No.1 receiver this year, and that’s resulted in him leading the team in targets (34), receptions (28), receiving yards (377), yards per target (11.1) and being one of four players who’ve caught a touchdown for the Panthers.

Moore’s disappointed a bit, but that’s relatively speaking. He’s averaged a solid 72.0 receiving yards and 4.5 receptions per game, but he hasn’t scored a touchdown and his 56.3% catch percentage this year leaves a lot to be desired. Having said that, his 32 targets are only a pair behind Anderson for top honors on the team, and his 384 Intended Air Yards are the 13th-most in the entire NFL.

The Panthers are only 1.5-point underdogs in a projected shootout with an over/under total of 54.5 points. There should be plenty of fantasy point scoring to go around, and this trio has massive upside. Sign me up for that.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.