We’re into the final stretch of my four-part Measuring Consistency series, in which I review 2020 data to highlight startable players that helped or hurt fantasy managers. Specifically, I already examined the Top 18 QBs and 24 RBs , looking at their average scoring per week and general volatility. Hopefully, this series will help fantasy managers draft players that align with their strategies: those who are more risk-averse may prefer players that score less on average but are relatively consistent, while others may prefer the high-ceiling-low-floor players.
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Synopsis
In case you haven’t yet read the first two articles of this series, I analyze every startable player’s weekly performances to understand their average production before clustering and indexing them against their respective positional groups. After reviewing each position group’s top players in a standard 1QB, 3WR, 2RB, 1TE league (i.e., top 18 QBs, top 24 RBs, top 36 WRs, and top 18 TEs), I note a few players to target in 2021 drafts. Additionally, considering none of these players were particularly awful (they were startable players at their positions after all), I spotlight stellar and middling performances depending on the player’s average production and volatility, measured by their coefficient of variation (CV).
Without further ado, let’s review and discuss WRs!
Data & Visualization
In fantasy football, the WR group seemingly gets deeper each year as more NFL teams utilize 11 personnel (one RB, one TE, and three WRs on the field) and adopt pass-heavy strategies. We all know Davante Adams had an insane season in 2020 and saw Tyreek Hill‘s massive ceiling. However, there were some WRs with relatively cheap costs that could have (almost) single-handedly won managers leagues: Stefon Diggs and Justin Jefferson. While there are other players who returned solid value, like D.K. Metcalf or Calvin Ridley, Diggs and Jefferson separated themselves considering their relatively lower ADPs. Diggs led the league in targets, receptions, and yards, while Jefferson set the rookie record for most receiving yards.
Some performances we’d like to forget were from D.J. Moore and Tyler Lockett, who may have infuriated managers due to tepid results (in Moore’s case) or significant inconsistency (for Lockett). Many analysts and managers thought Moore would take that next step to the elite group in his sophomore season, only to see Carolina Panthers Offensive Coordinator Joe Brady rely on Robby Anderson and Curtis Samuel more heavily than anticipated. Alternatively, Lockett basically had a massive game in Week 7 against the Arizona Cardinals, forcing managers to start him every game thereafter just to see underwhelming results. Whether this was due to an injury he suffered or perhaps because of the Seahawks’ attempts to “establish the run,” fantasy managers were not pleased.
League Winners:
- Stefon Diggs (third highest scorer; 16.6 PPG; 0.45 CV)
- Justin Jefferson (seventh-highest scorer; 14.1 PPG; 0.63 CV)
League Losers:
- Tyler Lockett (eighth-highest scorer; 13.5 PPG; 0.88 CV)
- D.J. Moore (22nd highest scorer; 11.9 PPG; 0.50 CV)
Analysis
When approaching WRs in fantasy, it’s advantageous to get just one early (emphasis on one) and then wait until Rounds 4 through 6 to take two upside plays that may have fallen for various reasons. This year, Diontae Johnson, Cooper Kupp, Amari Cooper, Brandon Aiyuk, Tee Higgins, and even Odell Beckham, Jr. offer a ton of upside with rather meager costs. Once you get to the later rounds, draft players with massive ceilings and a relatively easy path to targets (e.g., Darnell Mooney, Rashod Bateman, or Marquez Callaway).
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Whether you’re new to fantasy football or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Football 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with Starting Your Own Fantasy Football League or head to a more advanced strategy – like What is the Right Amount of Risk to Absorb on Draft Day? – to learn more.
Jared Lese is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jared, check out his archive and follow him @JaredL_FF.
