Tight ends are an interesting aspect of fantasy football. They are often the least flashy but, if you have a good one, can make a huge difference. Likewise, if you miss one, it can be a drag on your starting lineup. Below are a few examples of the latter and players you should avoid when it comes to the draft, along with their consensus ADP.
Current ADP: TE2
At first glance, it may seem odd to see Mark Andrews on any ‘avoid’ list. But, relative to his ADP, Andrews belongs here.
Thanks to a career year, Andrews was fantasy’s top tight end last year. He saw a team-high 153 targets, topped 100 receptions, and racked up 1,361 yards plus seven touchdowns. Of course, the Ravens also finished eighth in the league in pass attempts, throwing 36 times per game — the most attempts the Ravens have accumulated in the Lamar Jackson era.
However, the Ravens seemingly plan to return to their run-first 2019 offensive scheme when you look at their personnel moves this offseason. They traded 1,000-yard receiver Marquise Brown and drafted two offensive tackles and two tight ends in the 2022 NFL Draft. It’s not a bad idea to try to replicate the 2019 Ravens’ offense seeing as Baltimore’s 2021 offense finished 17th in scoring while the 2019 version finished first. But it’s bad news for Andrews.
That year, Andrews didn’t see 100 targets, finishing with 98, and he caught just 64 receptions for 852 yards. In traditional PPR scoring, that’s a drop of over 90 fantasy points for the season. Now, Andrews did manage 10 touchdowns that season, but touchdowns are not nearly as sticky as targets/receptions, so it’s not a guarantee he could make up the fantasy-point difference by scoring a lot.
Andrews is still very good and should be a starter on a fantasy team in your league. But he’s not a good value relative to ADP.
Current ADP: TE10
If 2021 were like any other season — where a generational talent that plays tight end goes in the top five of the draft — then the rookie season Pat Freiermuth had would be much more impressive. Taken in the second round — still very high for a tight end — Freiermuth was consistently part of the Steelers’ offense, averaging nearly five targets per game, converting 60 of those into receptions for nearly 500 yards. His seven touchdowns were tied for sixth among tight ends along with the likes of George Kittle and Rob Gronkowski. For the season, he was a top-13 fantasy tight end.
But that was last year when Freiermuth had veteran Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback. And while Roethlisberger’s last season wasn’t close to his peak fantasy years, he’s still a reliable signal-caller. The 2022 Steelers won’t be quite as lucky. In the wake of Roethlisberger’s retirement, the Steelers went out and signed veteran Mitchell Trubisky then drafted Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett in the first round. So Freiermuth will either have Trubisky — the owner of a 64% career completion percentage and 6.9 yards per attempt — or a rookie with some of the smallest hands for a rookie quarterback ever.
Compare Freiermuth’s ADP of 10th and his rank of 13th last year when it comes to fantasy scoring and it requires Freiermuth to improve his fantasy scoring without Roethlisberger. It’s a tall order for the second-year Steeler.
Current ADP: TE12
Mike Gesicki has never been flashy as a fantasy tight end, but he’s been about as steady as they come, especially in the last three seasons. After being drafted in the second round of the 2018 NFL Draft, Gesicki was thrown into the starting lineup and has never left. His rookie season was nothing to write home about, but in the last three seasons, Gesicki has been a starting option in fantasy lineups — finishing in the top 12 among tight ends — which is something not many players at any position can say. 2020 was the peak, when Gesicki totaled 53 receptions for 703 yards and six touchdowns. 2021 saw a decline in scoring (just two touchdowns) but career highs in targets (112), receptions (73), and yards (780).
So why is he on the avoid list if he’s as steady as they come? The first reason is obvious and his name is Tyreek Hill. Gesicki was second on the team in targets last year for an offense that finished eighth in the league in pass attempts. Granted, receiver DeVante Parker — third on the team in targets — was shipped off to New England, but Parker’s 73 targets will quickly get eaten up by Hill. Miami didn’t pay Hill all that money to only throw it to him 73 times, so expect Gesicki’s targets to be sacrificed. And that’s if the Dolphins’ offense still throws it as much as it did, which isn’t a guarantee with new coach Mike McDaniel. McDaniel called the plays last year in San Francisco where the 49ers’ offense finished second-to-last in the league in pass attempts.
The other issue is Gesicki himself. As previously mentioned, he’s never been flashy when it comes to fantasy points. Whether it’s season-long or per-game, Gesicki just doesn’t have a high ceiling. He technically finished as the seventh-highest-scoring tight end, but he also played in every game. As far as average fantasy points per game, he finished behind the likes of Rob Gronkowski, T.J. Hockenson, Darren Waller, and Dawson Knox, all of whom missed at least two games or more.
Gesicki is fine as a fantasy tight end, just maybe not as your starter considering the other options out there.
Current ADP: TE16
One reason Noah Fant is on the avoid list is the same as the player above, Mike Gesicki. He may have finished as a top-10 fantasy tight end, but only because he stayed healthy. If you go by average fantasy points for tight ends, he drops a few spots.
But unlike Gesicki, who will have the same quarterback in 2022 as he did in 2021, Fant was shipped off to Seattle as part of the huge Russell Wilson trade. He will now have the luxury of catching passes from either Drew Lock (who did play a few games with the Broncos last year) or Geno Smith. If that wasn’t bad enough, Fant is part of a system that hasn’t thrown more than 43 targets to a tight end since 2017 when Fant was a sophomore at Iowa.
Seattle was the bigger loser of the Russ Wilson trade, but Noah Fant isn’t far behind.
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Michael Moore is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Michael, check out his archive and follow him @DLF_Moore.
