We’re here to help you avoid draft-day landmines that can sink your season before it begins. Let’s take a look at a few 2022 fantasy football busts.
Rankings noted using FantasyPros half-PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) and Consensus ADP.
Fantasy Football Busts
Placing Aaron Rodgers in the “players to avoid” category feels like grabbing at low-hanging fruit. Still, it’s so obvious his fantasy ceiling will be hindered this year without his No. 1 wide receiver, Davante Adams.
The one game the Packers’ signal-caller played without his No. 1 receiver in 2021 was his third-worst fantasy finish of the season. And Rodgers’ only healthy season-long fantasy finish outside the top eight came in a season where Adams missed four games.
The dynamic duo’s chemistry was never more apparent than in or near the red zone, with Rodgers and Adams combining for 64 touchdowns — double digits on average — since 2016, 23 more than the next-closest duo (Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill). In addition, 33% of Rodgers’ touchdowns have gone to Adams over that period.
Green Bay has bolstered their wide receiver room through free agency and the draft, but it’s still improbable that they can make up for Adams’ production — especially in the red zone. Without Adams, it’s hard to buy Rodgers as a top-12 fantasy quarterback in 2022.
Best real-life quarterback? Of course. The clear-cut No. 2 option in fantasy? Not worth the price of admission.
Patrick Mahomes ranked fourth in fantasy points per game (22.0), tying Justin Herbert with 12 weekly top-12 QB finishes in 2021. Still, Mahomes averaged fewer fantasy points per game than in 2020 (25.2). And that was with Tyreek Hill in the fold.
Heading into 2022, Hill’s departure cannot be ignored. The duo ranks second in combined passing touchdowns (41) since 2016 — despite Mahomes not becoming the starter until the 2018 season. There’s genuine concern about his top-tier weekly ceiling without Hill that is not being factored into his QB2 ADP and ECR ranking.
Especially coming off a season where he posted a career-low PFF passing grade (77.5) and a career-high in interceptions (16). He’s being overvalued as the QB2 in early best ball drafts on name recognition alone.
Somebody on the Miami Dolphins is in for a rude awakening come September. Mike Gesicki, Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill are all being pushed up the rankings/draft boards with hopes that Tua Tagovailoa takes a massive step forward in Year 3 under first-year head coach Mike McDaniel.
I am not as optimistic that Tagovailoa can be the vehicle to deliver fantasy goodness to all these pieces in South Beach because this offense is going to be run-heavy. McDaniel made his way up the coaching ranks under Kyle Shanahan as a standout run-game coordinator. And should he follow in the footsteps of Shanahan as the offensive mastermind in Miami, fantasy managers should expect a lot of rushing and YAC schemes.
49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo ranked 29th in aDOT in 2021 (7.6) after ranking 39th and 35th in the category the two years prior. Tagovailoa’s aDOT was 34th in the league (7.6) in 2021.
Jimmy G’s most productive seasons have seen him average just north of 16 fantasy points per game – good for QB17 in 2021. Tagovailoa has yet to eclipse 14 fantasy points per game two years into his career. He also ranked 31st in throwing at the intermediate level (62.5 PFF grade) among 37 qualifying passers last season.
So although Tua is viewed as a popular late-round quarterback among fantasy circles, I have to admit I won’t be pulling the trigger on him in 1QB redraft formats. Especially with his brutal early schedule. New England, Baltimore and Buffalo are hardly the stream-worthy spots you will be confident in starting the southpaw QB. In the Dolphins quarterback’s four combined starts versus those teams in 2021, his fantasy finishes were QB23, QB24, QB18 and QB16.
FantasyPros Staff Consensus 2022 Redraft Fantasy Football Rankings
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