Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers
- SF -9.5, O/U 42
- Seahawks at 49ers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Injuries
Quarterbacks
Geno Smith: Smith shocked the world by leading Seattle to the win in Week 1. He played extremely well, ranking sixth in PFF passer grade and second in adjusted completion rate (minimum 20 dropbacks). He finished the week as the QB15, but I attribute that more to numerous quarterbacks flopping than considering Smith a real fantasy asset. His stellar play does give hope for D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Despite the 49ers losing in Week 1, the defense looked good. They are ranked ninth in pass defense DVOA holding Justin Fields to the third-lowest passing yards and eighth-lowest net yards per pass attempt. Smith is a low-end QB2 in Week 2.
Trey Lance: Lance had an atrocious Week 1 under center. Among 32 quarterbacks with at least 20 dropbacks, he finished 26th in PFF passing grade, 24th in yards per attempt, and 30th in adjusted completion rate. That said, he ranked second in carries (13), with three coming in the red zone, and fourth in rushing yards. His lack of touchdowns is the main culprit for finishing as the QB27 last week. His rushing floor still puts him in high-end QB2 territory this week, even if his skills as a passer don’t trend upward in Week 2. Seattle is 27th in pass defense DVOA after one game. They allowed the third-most passing yards and sixth-highest net yards per attempt to Russell Wilson in Week 1.
Running Backs
Rashaad Penny: Last week, Penny looked good. He was 15th in yards created per touch and third in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum ten carries). He finished the week as the RB35 thanks to only 12 carries on the ground. Penny will never be a priority target in the passing game, and Week 1 wasn’t any different as he was 17th in route participation which also could be puffed up because Seattle was in neutral or positive game script for most of the night. Penny could easily be scripted out if a game goes sideways early. This easily could be that type of game if Lance shows life early. San Franciso was a run defense to avoid last year, and it looks like much of the same in 2022. The 49ers held Chicago to 2.7 yards per attempt last week. Last year they allowed the fourth-lowest explosive run rate and seventh-lowest yards per attempt while ranking second in red zone run defense.
Ken Walker: Walker wasn’t listed on the final injury report and should be active this week. With a terrible matchup on his plate and an uncertain snap share, he’s a must-sit.
Jeff Wilson: Last year, Wilson started four games, averaging 70% of the snaps played, 18.2 touches, and 72.5 total yards. Last week he played 58% of the snaps with a 32% route participation mark. He logged only 11 touches and 30 total yards. Wilson isn’t a sexy fantasy option, but he’s a good bet for 17-20 touches and a smattering of red zone work. Passing down work could be his by default, as I doubt Kyle Shanahan will pull him off the field for an untested rookie, but weirder things have happened. Last year among 58 rushers with 75 or more carries, Wilson ranked 30th in yards after contact per attempt and 56th (yuck) in PFF’s elusive rating. The jury is out on Seattle’s run defense. Last year they were elite with the ninth-lowest yards after contact per attempt and lowest explosive run rate. They were more permeable inside the 20, ranking 20th in red zone rushing defense. After facing off against Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon, they are 31st and 32nd in adjusted line yards and second-level yards allowed. Wilson isn’t anywhere close to the talent level of either back. It’s a shame Wilson has only seen more than five targets in one career game because the real Achilles heel for Seattle is against receiving backs. Last year they were 32nd in DVOA, allowing the most receptions and receiving yards to running backs. This showed up in a big way in Week 1 as they gave up a combined 13 receptions and 79 receiving yards to Williams and Gordon. Wilson is a volume-dependent low-end RB2 or high-end RB3 this week.
Tyrion Davis-Price and Jordan Mason: With an unclear workload distribution for either back, they are blind dart throws not worth taking.
Wide Receivers
D.K. Metcalf: With Geno Smith as his quarterback, D.K. Metcalf was nerfed as a short-area pass catcher. Metcalf saw a 25.9% target share but only 19.2% of the team’s air yards with an anemic 4.3 aDOT. Metcalf limped to a WR55 finish last week. Metcalf will run about 84% of his routes against Emmanuel Moseley and Charvarius Ward this week. Moseley allowed a 60.8% catch rate and 78.0 passer rating last year. Ward was also tough, giving up a 51.0% catch rate and 73.6 passer rating. Metcalf is a high-end WR4 or low-end WR3 this week, depending on if he gets in the end zone.
Tyler Lockett: Lockett was the forgotten man in Week 1. With Smith’s pop gun arm, Lockett was regulated to a 14.8% target share and 19.9% of the team’s air yards. Lockett’s talent didn’t go anywhere as he was ninth in yards per route run and 23rd in route win rate last year. Sadly quarterback play has regulated him to WR4/WR5 status. He’ll match up with Moseley and Ward on about 58% of his routes.
Deebo Samuel: Well, it didn’t take long to get that answer. Deebo Samuel‘s wide back role is back for 2022. With Elijah Mitchell sidelined, Samuel saw 33% of the running back rushing work (eight carries, 52 rushing yards). Samuel still accounted for a 33.3% target share (eighth) and a 32.0% target per route run rate. Sadly with Lance’s struggles (68th in catchable target rate), Samuel only snagged two of his eight targets. His dual role will lead to better days that could begin in Week 2. Samuel will match up with Michael Jackson and Tariq Woolen on 64% of his routes as a wide receiver. Jackson has defended only seven targets in his career with a 28.6% catch rate and 39.6 passer rating allowed. Woolen saw three targets in his first NFL action denying receivers on all three.
Brandon Aiyuk: Regardless of how talented Brandon Aiyuk is, it’ll be difficult to trust him in your lineup in any week until we see substantial growth as a passer from Lance. Aiyuk saw an 8.3% target share (two targets) and 12.8% of the team’s air yards. He finished the week as the WR63. Sit Aiyuk. I hate to be the “I need to see it first” person, but we must see Lance progress as a passer before plugging in Aiyuk.
Tight Ends
Noah Fant: Fant finds himself in a three-way committee at tight end in Seattle. He’s a must-sit until this resolves. He led the room with 18 routes, but Will Dissly (14 routes) and Colby Parkinson (ten routes) also chipped in. His 55% snap share and 50% route participation are too low to consider starting him, especially against a 49ers’ defense that was fifth in DVOA last year against tight ends that stonewalled Cole Kmet in Week 1.
George Kittle: Still out of practice. He’s likely to be sidelined another game at least and no other San Francisco tight end is worth discussing. Update: Kittle has been listed as questionable with a shot to play. With the state of the tight end position, if Kittle plays, you play him. Seattle allowed the ninth-most receptions, 11th-most receiving yards, and the fourth-most receiving touchdowns last year.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Los Angeles Rams
- LAR, -10.5, O/U 47.5
- Falcons at Rams Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Injuries
Quarterbacks
Marcus Mariota: It was a one-week sample, but Marcus Mariota looked good in Week 1 against a formidable Saints defense. He finished the week as the QB10 on the strength of 12 carries (third), 72 rushing yards (second), and a rushing score. He was ninth in aDOT in Week 1, ranking 15th in clean-pocket accuracy. Yes, it was against Josh Allen, but the Rams had issues rushing the passer in Week 1. They were 18th in blitz rate but struggled with the league’s lowest pressure rate. The Falcons kept Mariota clean in Week 1 as he faced the third-lowest pressure rate. With talented pass catchers, mobility, and a team on the other side that will force him to push the ball, Mariota is an interesting streamer candidate if you lost Dak Prescott to injury.
Matthew Stafford: A Stafford bounceback week is in the cards if the Rams can keep him upright. With injuries across their offensive line, they allowed him to face the tenth-highest pressure rate last week. The Falcons will test their offensive line after ranking 19th in pressure rate in Week 1 but also ninth in blitz rate. If the Rams give him time and the Falcons blitz, Stafford can make them pay. Last year teams were insane for trying to blitz Stafford. He was second in completion rate and fifth in yards per attempt against the blitz (minimum 200 dropbacks). While Stafford was the QB29 in fantasy last week, it doesn’t tell the entire story. He played extremely well. He was 15th in PFF passer grade, eighth in big-time throw rate, and tenth in adjusted completion rate. Atlanta is an improved defense, but still, they are 15th in net passing yards per attempt and 18th in pass defense DVOA after one game.
Running Backs
Cordarrelle Patterson: Patterson spit in the face of age in Week 1. At age 31, he rolled up 25 touches and 136 total yards against one of the league’s best run defenses last year on his way to RB5. Patterson saw a 62% snap share and 84% opportunity share (fourth-highest), with 69.3% of his snaps at running back. His elusivity metrics weren’t nearly as kind, though, as he was 24th in yards after contact per attempt and 23rd in PFF’s elusive rating (out of 31 rushers with at least ten carries). The Atlanta offensive line could be improved, though, as they are seventh in adjusted line yards and second-level yards after one game. This came against a run defense with the second-lowest yards after contact per attempt and explosive run rate allowed last year. The Rams had the seventh-best in these metrics last year, so this will be a good litmus test if that was just a flash in the pan. If Patterson can’t get it done on the ground, he can through the air against a defense that was 24th in DVOA against receiving backs last year.
Darrell Henderson: For now, it looks like the Cam Akers dream is dead. Darrell Henderson played 80.6% of the snaps in Week 1 with an 85.7% opportunity share (second). He amassed 18 touches, 73 total yards, and a 12.2% target share (25th). Last week Henderson finished 20th in yards after contact per attempt and 17th in PFF’s elusive rating (out of 31 running backs, minimum ten carries). He was the RB21 in Week 1. Now he gets an Atlanta defense that held rushers to the 13th lowest explosive run rate and 11th-lowest yards after contact per attempt last year. Volume could get you there against this defense, though, as they were 29th in adjusted line yards and 18th in second-level yards last year (27th, 16th after Week 1). The Falcons were also 31st in red zone rushing defense last year, so if the Rams get in close, don’t be surprised if Henderson walks away from Week 2 with two rushing scores.
Wide Receivers
Drake London: After his first NFL game, Drake London looks like he’s “that dude.” He was the WR34, finishing the week as the 13th-highest graded receiver per PFF (minimum five targets). Among the same sample, he was 17th in yards per route run immediately behind Cooper Kupp and Jerry Jeudy while running 90.6% of his routes on the perimeter. London saw a 21.9% target share and 31.2% of the team’s air yards in Week 1. He’ll match up with Jalen Ramsey and David Long this week. Ramsey had a rough week 1, but don’t forget he allowed a 61.5% catch rate and 84.5 passer rating last year. Long is also tough, giving up a 65.1% catch rate and 79.7 passer rating last season.
Cooper Kupp: I could write anything here, and you will still start Cooper Kupp as you should. Kupp is still a fantasy greek god after Week 1. He finished the week as the WR2 commanding the third-most targets (15), sixth-highest target share (36.6%), and 40.1% (ninth) of the team’s air yards. I’ll keep this short and sweet. Start Cooper Kupp. Cornerback matchups don’t matter. Start Kupp.
Allen Robinson: Robinson’s face is still on milk cartons dating back to the 2021 season. Apparently, we need to get the picture refreshed with a Rams jersey. Robinson garnered two targets last week with 0.25 yards per route run while running 71.4% of his routes on the perimeter. The matchups don’t get any easier in Week 2 against Casey Hayward and A.J. Terrell. Terrell allowed a 43.9% catch rate and 47.5 passer rating last year. Hayward permitted a 50.8% catch rate and 76.1 passer rating in 2021. If Robinson doesn’t make a ripple this week, it’s officially time to start panicking.
Allen Robinson only got 2 targets in Week 1, but Sean McVay plans to call “more plays where he’s the primary” https://t.co/6bEEhSMvfw
— Rams Wire (@TheRamsWire) September 15, 2022
Update: The squeaky wheel narrative could possibly be at play this week. McVay is one of the few coaches that I believe when he discusses featuring a player. We saw it last year with DeSean Jackson and Robert Woods. Robinson against the dirty bird corners is fair to question, but his volume should be improved in Week 2.
Tight Ends
Kyle Pitts: Despite finishing as the TE35 with 19 receiving yards, Kyle Pitts had a 21.9% target share and 33% of the team’s air yards. He lined up in the slot or out wide on 57.1% of his snaps. That rate could climb this week. Last year Pitts logged 11 games with over a 40% slot rate, and he could easily get there in Week 2. The Rams were fourth in DVOA against tight ends last year, but Pitts is no ordinary “tight end.” Getting Pitts matched up with the 5’11” Troy Hill in the slot makes too much sense. Last year Hill allowed a 76.6% catch rate and 125.7 passer rating.
Tyler Higbee: Higbee is the ultimate ugly volume bet. Higbee had the second-highest snap share and fourth-highest route participation at the position in Week 1. He saw a 26.8% target share (second) while running the fourth-most routes among tight ends. He finished as the TE15 with five receptions and 39 receiving yards. After tying for the most red zone targets at tight end last year, he’s a good bet to score against Atlanta, who was 22nd in DVOA last year, allowing the fourth-most receiving touchdowns.
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Houston Texans vs. Denver Broncos
- DEN -10, O/U 45
- Texans at Broncos Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Injuries
Quarterbacks
Davis Mills: Mills is a mid QB2. Last week he finished as the QB20 with 240 passing yards (6.5 yards per attempt) and two passing touchdowns. Without the threat of rushing, this will be where Mills comes in many weeks. The Broncos aren’t a terrible on-paper matchup after making Geno Smith look like a competent passer in Week 1. Denver was 19th in net yards per pass attempt and 20th in pass defense DVOA. They allowed the tenth-highest EPA per dropback.
Russell Wilson: Let’s ride into Week 2. After the Broncos debacle in Week 1, you have to believe that Russell Wilson comes out firing. Once he got rolling, he looked like old Russ. He finished the game with 340 passing yards and 8.1 yards per attempt, ranking 12th in clean pocket accuracy. He gets a pass defense that, after one week, is 15th in pass defense DVOA, 12th in EPA per drop back, and 15th in success rate per dropback. Wilson should succeed against a secondary that allowed the sixth-highest deep completion rate last year.
Running Backs
Rex Burkhead: When you can feed “Flex Goathead” a 71% snap share (ninth) and 64.7% opportunity share (18th) you have to right? Right? The answer is no. Always no. Lovie Smith has proclaimed the team will get Dameon Pierce more involved, but I’ll believe it when I see it. Rex Burkhead is the most uninspiring rushers in the NFL. Last year he ranked outside the top 40 running backs in the NFL in yards created per touch, juke rate, breakaway run rate, and yards per touch. Houston’s offensive line won’t do him or Pierce any favors as they rank 25th or lower in adjusted line yards, second-level yards, and open field yards in back-to-back seasons. Denver’s run defense looked good in Week 1 with the second-lowest success rate, 14th-lowest yards per attempt, and eighth-lowest open field yards allowed.
Dameon Pierce: After winning the starting job outright in the preseason, the Texans decided to side with the veteran difference in Week 1. There’s no guarantee that they don’t do it again in Week 2. With Pierce only handling a 30% snap share and 35.3% opportunity share in Week 1, he’s a must-sit with a tough matchup for Week 2.
Javonte Williams: Well, so much for Javonte Williams owning this backfield. Williams was the RB12 in Week 1 after seeing a wondrous 29.3% target share with 11 receptions. We can safely say that it isn’t returning anytime soon. Let’s focus on what will be real in Week 2. Williams only saw a 54.7% snap share and a 55.9% opportunity share with three red zone touches. Williams was 17th in yards created per touch, 12th in evaded tackles, and 11th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum six carries). After Week 1, Houston is 25th or lower in adjusted line yards, second-level yards, and open field yards, with the seventh-highest rushing success rate allowed. Last year they were 32nd in red zone rushing defense and 30th in explosive run rate. Even in a split backfield with a top 3 rushing matchup on deck, Williams needs to find his way into your lineup.
Melvin Gordon: Gordon is a strong flex play in Week 2 against Houston. Last week he saw 14 touches with 72 total yards. He played 43.8% of the snaps with a 41.2% opportunity share. He out touched Williams in the red zone (four). It’s early to say age is catching up with him, but it’s worth noting that he finished the week outside the top 45 running backs in yards created per touch and juke rate. He ranked 40th out of 45 running backs with at least six carries in PFF’s elusive rating.
Wide Receivers
Brandin Cooks: Cooks finished Week 1 as the WR22 in fantasy. He looks primed to gobble up all the volume he can handle in 2022. He saw a 34.3% target share (seventh-best) with a 32.4% target per route run rate. Among 56 wide receivers with at least five targets, he was 28th in PFF receiving grade and 24th in yards per route run. He’ll run about 72% of his routes against Patrick Surtain and Ronald Darby. Last year Surtain allowed a 57.6% catch rate and 69.7 passer rating. Darby gave up a 57.8% catch rate and a 93.6 passer rating.
Nico Collins: Collins is a distant second receiving option on this team. Despite playing 68% of the snaps with an 81.1% route participation, he only saw an 8.6% target share and 15.0% of the team’s air yards. I’ve never been on the Collins hype train, and I’m not now. There are better flex options than Collins in every format.
Courtland Sutton: Sutton enters Week 2 after a WR40 week where he saw a 17.1% target share and 39.9% of the team’s air yards (tenth-highest). He ran a route on 100% of Wilson’s dropbacks. He saw three deep targets and one look in the red zone. Out of 56 wideouts with at least five targets in Week 1, he was 32nd in yards per route run and PFF receiving grade. He’ll match up with Steven Nelson and Derek Stingley on nearly 80% of his routes. Nelson allowed a 69.1% catch rate and 108.0 passer rating last year. In his first NFL action, Stingley gave up a 66.7% catch rate (nine targets) and 95.1 passer rating in coverage.
Jerry Jeudy: Jeudy was the WR12 last week after breaking a long reception for a touchdown. He finished the day with four receptions and 102 receiving yards. He also handled a 17.1% target share with a 95.2% route participation mark. He saw 24.1% of the team’s air yards while about 69% (nice) of his routes from the slot. Jeudy gets turnstile Desmond King in Week 2, who gave up a 73.6% catch rate and 115.9 passer rating from the slot last year.
Update: K.J. Hamler has been ruled out. Look for Wilson to lean on Sutton and Jeudy further or his running backs. This doesn’t vault any rando wide receiver into fantasy relevance.
Tight Ends
Brevin Jordan: Don’t play Jordan even if you’re desperate. While we might like him and be rooting for him to succeed, Davis Mills is a quarterback who can only support so many options. Jordan’s 57% snap share and 62% route participation aren’t high enough in a low-scoring offense to make your lineup. Jordan only saw a 5.7% target share in Week 1.
Albert Okwuegbunam: Okwuegbunam is a fringe starter this week. In Week 1, he saw a 14.6% target share (12th) and a 17.6% target per route run rate (23rd) while seeing 81% route participation. His efficiency was disappointing with 1.00 yards per route run, but he saw a red zone target. Houston was 32nd in DVOA against tight ends last year, allowing the 12th-most receiving yards.
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Arizona Cardinals vs. Las Vegas Raiders
- LVR -5.5, O/U 51.5
- Cardinals at Raiders Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Injuries
Quarterbacks
Kyler Murray: Murray finished last week as the QB9 in fantasy, but it was gruesome. Murray managed 5.7 yards per attempt (27th), ranking 23rd in PFF passing grade. Murray is primed for a much better game in Week 2. The Las Vegas secondary was 14th in adjusted completion rate and ninth in passing touchdowns allowed last year. They also let go of arguably their top two corners in the offseason. It showed in Week 1 as they were third in success rate per drop back and fourth in EPA per drop back.
Derek Carr: Carr could explode this week in a shootout. Carr slogged through a three-pick day as the QB17 in fantasy despite throwing for two scores and 295 yards (8.0 yards per attempt). Arizona’s secondary is in shambles. They are 32nd in pass defense DVOA after ranking dead last in net yards per pass attempt, EPA per drop back, and success rate per drop back in Week 1. Josh McDaniels could use this as a statement game.
Running Backs
James Conner: Don’t let the stat sheets fool you. The Cardinals got blown out in Week 1. Before that was written in stone, Conner had played 96% of the snaps. After the game was well out of hand, they sat him down, so take his 71% snap share and 66.7% opportunity share with a grain of salt. Conner handled 15 touches, turning them into 55 total yards and a score as the RB15. This isn’t a smash matchup for Conner, but he can get there as a three-down workhorse, provided the game stays close or competitive. Las Vegas is 11th in adjusted line yards after Week 1 as they allowed the eighth-lowest success rate and third-lowest rushing EPA. Last year they gave up the 13th-lowest yards after contact per attempt while ranking 20th in DVOA against receiving backs. With goal-line work locked up and 17-20 touches, Conner is a top 15 RB on these factors alone if the game isn’t a blowout.
Josh Jacobs: If Derek Carr and the receivers don’t smash this week, Josh Jacobs ran wild. Did everyone see what Clyde Edwards-Helaire was doing before the Chiefs ran away with the game? Ok. Jacobs is in the quietest smash spot ever. He played 59% of the snaps in Week one with a 64% opportunity share (18th). He handled the Raiders’ only red zone rushing attempt in Week 1. Last year the Cardinals were third in yards after contact per attempt, 31st in explosive run rate, and 15th in red zone rushing defense. After Week 1, Arizona is 31st in second-level yards and 27th in open field yards. If Jacobs gets 20+ carries in this game, he’ll crush. In Week 1, he was sixth in yards after contact per attempt, third in missed tackles forced, and first in PFF’s elusive rating among all running backs with ten or more carries.
Update: Brandon Bolden has been ruled doubtful. This means either a smidge more work falls on Jacobs’ plate or we get the replacement thorn in the side Ameer Abdullah involved.
Wide Receivers
Davante Adams: So yeah, that old college flame can still apparently get the blood rushing and the vibe going. That’s at least what we saw in Week 1 from Carr and Davanbae Adams. Adams saw a 50% target share. Yes. Stop and process that for a second. Carr targeted him on 50% of his passing attempts (17 targets). Adams snagged ten balls for 141 receiving yards as the WR3 in Week 1. The Cardinals don’t have a corner that can hang with Adams. Byron Murphy showed again in Week 1 that when he’s pushed to the boundary, he struggles, allowing an 83.3% catch rate and 133.3 passer rating. Marco Wilson has been abysmal at the NFL level allowing a 73.2% catch rate and 134.1 passer rating last year. If you thought what Kupp and Jefferson did in Week 1 was special, stay tuned for Adams in Week 2.
Davante Adams in Week 2: pic.twitter.com/ZV45xL7gVV
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) September 17, 2022
Update: The grandma narrative has entered the building. Adams’ grandma will be attending the game this week. Adams will make granny happy with another monster game in Week 2.
Hunter Renfrow: With Adams going crazy in Week 1, Hunter Renfrow faded into the background with a 17.6% target share and 9.5% of the team’s air yards. Renfrow could reassert himself in Week 2 in this juicy matchup. Renfrow will see Jalen Thompson on about 92% of his routes. Last year in slot coverage, Thompson allowed an 87.5% catch rate and a 123.2 passer rating. With Murphy on the perimeter, the slot receptions are Renfrow’s for the taking.
Marquise Brown: In his first game reunited with Kyler Murray, Marquise Brown handled a 16.7% target share and 37.1% of the team’s air yards. He logged 100% route participation. His target per route rate wasn’t impressive at 15.0% (70th). Brown crawled to 1.08 yard per route run. A touchdown saved an underwhelming day and bumped him to WR25 for Week 1. Brown has a redemption spot this week against the Raiders running about 81% of his routes against Rock Ya-Sin and Amik Robertson. Ya-Sin allowed a 56.5% catch rate and 93.4 passer rating last year. Robertson stepped in last week for Anthony Averett who is now out with a thumb injury. Robertson allowed a 76.5% catch rate and 135.5 passer rating last season.
Update: Rondale Moore has been ruled out for Week 2.
Greg Dortch: With Rondale Moore still recovering from injury Greg Dorth likely gets another start as the team’s slot wideout. Last week he was the WR29 with a 25.0% target share and 23.1% target per route run rate. He wasn’t overly efficient ranking 45th in yards per route run, but the volume should be there for him this week again. He’ll see Nate Hobbs in slot coverage who gave up an 82.5% catch rate and 94.3 passer rating last year.
A.J. Green: Green is cooked. Last week with the Chiefs running zone on at least 71% of their coverage snaps, Green couldn’t muster more than an 11.1% target share and 0.42 yards per route run. While Green’s man coverage beating skills have eroded, he was still strong against zone last year with 2.21 yards per route run and an 80.4 PFF zone receiving grade. That doesn’t look to be the case anymore after Week 1. Don’t start him.
Tight Ends
Darren Waller: As Davante Adams‘ main running mate last week, Darren Waller finished as the TE9 in fantasy. He commanded a 17.6% target share and 16.3% of the team’s air yards which are light by his standards, but with a target hog like Adams in town, it’s to be expected. Waller can pop off any week, but this matchup sets up well for Renfrow and not Waller. Arizona was second in DVOA last year, allowing the fourth-fewest receiving yards and fewest receiving touchdowns to tight ends.
Zach Ertz: Coming off an injury Zach Ertz only played 57.6% of the snaps last week with a 71.1% route participation. He grabbed an 11.1% target share with a 14.8% target per route run rate. These numbers clearly state that Ertz isn’t 100%, so play him while understanding this risk exists. Ertz faces a juicy matchup against the Raiders, who were 25th in DVOA last year, ranking ninth in receptions, eighth in receiving yards, and third in receiving touchdowns allowed to tight ends.
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